Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Triple Play Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. Today’s article will feature the night slate for DFS as that has more games to choose from (7) than the day slate (3).
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -190 at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (6:40pm EST)
The Dodgers felt the Paul Skenes experience last night. But they get a change in that fast action when Bailey Falter takes the mound for Pittsburgh. And they’ll welcome that as the Dodgers have the 3rd best batting average against LHP’s this year with a 0.276 clip. Additionally, they are just 1-3 in Walker Buehler’s last four starts. But that’s because they’ve scored a total of 2 runs in those 3 losses. I expect that all to change tonight as they look to get out of Pittsburgh with a win by avoiding the sweep tonight.
CINCINNATI REDS -125 vs CHICAGO CUBS (-120 BET365)
The Reds own the 2nd longest winning streak in the majors as they put their 4-game win streak on the line tonight against the Cubs. At four games under 0.500, Cincy has the 5th best run differential in the NL showing their record is likely off from where it should be and their recent play is more indicative of their future success.
I also like the fact that Hunter Greene takes the ball tonight for the Reds as he got touched up in his last outing against Chicago. Prior to that, he had six consecutive games of 3 ER’s or less. The only batters in the Cubs lineup with a high level of success off Greene are Bellinger and Suzuki. The other starting hitters are a combined 7 for 43, a 0.162 average, off Greene. I’ll look for that last start to be more of an aberration and him to bounce back tonight with a dominant performance.
Add to that, Javier Assad is due for negative regression (see DFS Stacks advice below on why) and we have the better pitcher and hotter team with Cincy.
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
SONNY GRAY over 6.5 K’s (-145 BET365)
Gray struck out 10 Phillies batters in his last outing. He’s had four other games of 8 K’s or more. That makes 50% of his starts this year with over 8 K’s. And he hasn’t registered less than 5 K’s in any outing. Combine that with Colorado’s high K rate, 25.1%, and I feel confident Gray will be able to rack up at least 7 K’s tonight.
TBD
To be posted by 5pm
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 6:40PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 7.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TANNER HOUCK ($9800 DK):
At some point, Tanner Houck will regress. That’s not to say he doesn’t have the talent to be a good pitcher in the MLB, Afterall, he has a 1.85 ERA which is the 3rd best in the MLB. But he’s coming off a full season of a 5.01 ERA and his projected stats, like SIERA and xERA, are all above 3.00. However, I believe that regression will wait as tonight he gets the White Sox who have the worst batting average in baseball. And looking at the shorter picture, they are batting just 0.197 since May 16th which is in line with their season performance. Therefore, I’ll bank on Houck to continue his impressive pitching and be one of the top arms on the board tonight.
SONNY GRAY ($9500 DK):
The Cardinals SP has been very impressive in his new home this year. His 3.00 ERA is actually on the unlucky side as his SIERA and xFIP are around 2.50 each. And today he gets the Rockies, who have significant home and road splits. They are 4th overall in batting average at home, with a 0.261 BA. But on the road, that falls to 0.233 which is 20th in baseball. Even better, from a DFS perspective, the Rockies have the 4th highest K rate in baseball at 25.1%. So I’ll rally around the Cards SP who should continue his solid season, and rack up some K’s along the way.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: WALKER BUEHLER ($8700 DK), PABLO LOPEZ ($8500 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
CAL QUANTRILL ($6000 DK)
The Rockies SP has been a bright spot in their rotation this year as he sports a solid 3.84 ERA. Before his last start against LAD, he had five straight quality starts including a nine-strikeout outing against Pittsburgh. The concern, is his low K rate for the season as it’s below the 20% line we like to target. But in those aforementioned 5 straight QS’s, he did rack up 32 K’s in 31.1 innings. And the Cards have a 23% K rate in the past 2 weeks. So I see value in the Rockies young SP tonight when he takes the mound in STL.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
PADRES:
The Padres lead the league in batting average at 0.258. And that has been due to their recent performance. Over the past 2 weeks, they have a 0.278 batting average (2nd best) and 0.337 OBP (2nd best). Combine that with the fact they are facing SP Slade Ceccioni who has an ERA near 6.00. Hitters I like tonight are Fernando Tatis (batting 0.450 in last 10 days), Manny Machado (0.344 BA in last 10 days) and Luis Arraez (0.361 BA in last 10 days). I’ll also look at Donovan Solano, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar.
REDS:
The only team with a better batting average than the Padres in the last 10 days is the Cincinatti Reds. The team from southern Ohio has a sporty 0.284 batting average and 0.810 OPS since May 26th. And the weather is hot and wind is projected to blow out at Great American Ballpark tonight. Add to that Javier Assad has a 2.27 ERA but a 4.11 SIERA showing negative regression is on the way. So I’ll stack the Reds which will start with Ellie and include Jamier Candelario, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and Jake Fraley.
Other Stacks to Consider: LA DODGERS, CHICAGO CUBS
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