Jake Faigus 
Welcome everyone to the Sweet 16! I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for Friday. This slate is loaded, so see which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
Duke vs Houston (-4.5): This is a battle of talent vs style. Duke is one of the most talented teams left in the tournament, while Houston is the most physical team left in the tournament. Duke has shown a lot in this tournament from a talent perspective after questions about how much trust they should be given in March. They are very balanced with an adjusted offensive rating of 122.6 on KenPom which is good for fifth in college basketball and then an adjusted defensive rating of 95.6 which is good for 20th in all of college basketball. They are also scoring 79.1 points per game and then allowing 66.5 points per game as well. Five different Blue Devils average over double digits with Kyle Filipowski leading the way at 16.6 points per game and then also leading in rebounds at 8.2, in steals at 1.2, and in blocks at 1.6 per game. Houston is a big challenge for them when it comes to their style. Houston is the best defense in the country not named Iowa State. They are second in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom with an 88.0 rating. They are also the best scoring defense in the country, allowing 57.7 points per game. Their offense has been very good and efficient this season with an adjusted offensive rating of 119.6 which is good for 14th in college basketball. Three different Cougars average over double digits with LJ Cryer leading the way at 15.5 points per game, but the heart of the team is Jamal Shead. He averages 13.2 points per game and then leads in assists at 6.4 and steals at 2.2 per game. Duke has the talent to win the entire tournament, but has shown that teams can punk them when it comes to physicality. Houston does exactly that with every team they play. Look for Duke to keep this close, but Houston should pull away and win and cover on their way to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Houston -4.5
Creighton vs Tennessee (-2.5): This will be one of the best games remaining with each of these teams being very evenly matched. Creighton escaped in their last game against Oregon in Double Overtime, while Tennessee managed to beat out Texas to advance. Creighton has been a balanced team this season ranking 10th in adjusted offensive rating at 120.4 on KenPom, and then ranking 23rd in adjusted defensive rating at 96.1. They rank 31st in scoring offense, averaging 80.6 points per game and then allowing 69.5 points per game. Four Blue Jays average over double digits with Baylor Scheiermann leading the way at 18.3 points per game. Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner are not far behind with 17.7 and 17.4 points per game respectively. Tennessee is known for their defense and it has shown up once again this season. They are ranked third in adjusted defense on KenPom with an 89.9 rating and they allow 67 points per game. The offense has played better this season too. Three different Volunteers average over double digits on offense with Dalton Knecht being their main star and leading the way at 21.1 points per game. Creighton’s balance and shooting could be key to bothering Tennessee and winning, but Tennessee has the best player in this game. Dalton Knecht is unguardable and the rest of the team is still stifling on defense. Creighton will keep this close, but Tennessee wins and covers to advance to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
