Jake Faigus 
Welcome everyone to the first round of the NCAA Tournament! I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for Day 4. Sunday’s slate is loaded, so see which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
Clemson vs Baylor (-4.5): Both of these teams won their first round game very easily. Baylor outscored Colgate and then Clemson held down New Mexico. Baylor has had a very good season and can fill it up on offense with the best of teams this season. They are the 15th ranked team in the NET and 14th overall in KenPom. Their offense makes them go this season, averaging 80.9 points per game and then ranking fifth in adjusted offense with a 123.1 rating. Six different Bears average over double digits with Ja’Kobe Walter leading the way at 14.4 points per game. Their defense needs work, but the offense has been able to cover for some issues on that end. For the Tigers, Clemson is 35th in the NET and then 25th overall in KenPom. The Tigers have had more success on offense than defense this season, averaging 77.4 points per game. Three different Tigers average over double digits with PJ Hall leading the way down low at 18.7 points per game. This same thing is happening again for the Tigers after New Mexico, Baylor has the better athletes in this game and they have a better backcourt than Clemson and not to mention they have more depth too. Clemson has had a solid year, but Baylor is the better team in this matchup. The Bears are too good on offense, but their defense will keep them in this game because it has struggled at times and Clemson has the offense to take advantage. Still, expect Baylor to pull away and cover because of the waves of players they can send at Clemson and it will help them move onto the next round and into the Sweet 16.
Pick: Baylor -4.5
Grand Canyon vs Alabama (-5.5): This has potential for a massive upset because of the type of athletes Grand Canyon has. Alabama looked very good to open the tournament against College of Charleston, but the Antelopes won’t back down from the Crimson Tide. The Antelopes were dominant this year with 29 wins and they ran through the WAC regular season and conference tournament. They are also not afraid of the moment, already beating San Diego State once this season before beating Saint Mary’s in their most recent game. The Antelopes are 50th in the NET and 53rd in KenPom. They are a balanced team averaging 79.6 points per game and then they are allowing 66.9 points per game, both are top-50 in all of college basketball. Three different players average double digits with Tyon Grant-Foster leading the way at 19.8 points per game. Alabama is ninth in the NET and then 15th in KenPom overall. Offense makes the Crimson Tide go with them leading all of college basketball at 91.3 points per game. They are also third in adjusted offensive rating on KenPom at 125.6. Four different players on the Tide average over double digits with Mark Sears leading the way at 21.4 points per game. The issue for Alabama is their defense, where they rank 347th in points allowed at 81.5 points per game and then 117th in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom at 103.4. Alabama’s defensive struggles will come back to cost them in this game. Nate Oats is a great coach, but the defense just has not worked at all this season. Grand Canyon should cover this spread based on what they showed on Friday and consider taking them on the moneyline in this game. The Antelopes can win this game due to a combination of how well they have played and Alabama’s inconsistency issues.
Pick: Grand Canyon +5.5 or Grand Canyon ML (+200)
Yale vs San Diego State (-5.5): San Diego State had a magical season last year and they managed to reload well and are still the class of the Mountain West as one of two teams left standing from the conference. Yale pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament when they beat Auburn as the 13-seed. They are 20th in both the NET and in KenPom overall. Their offense has been efficient, but they have one of the best defenses in all of college basketball. They are 10th in adjusted defense on KenPom with a rating of 93.9 and they allow 66.5 points per game. On offense, Jaedon LeDee is the player that makes them go, averaging 21.4 points per game and he had a massive game to help the Aztecs win against UAB with a 32 and eight performance. Reese Waters is the only other Aztec that averages over double digits scoring-wise at 10 points per game. Yale is the 83rd ranked team in the NET and then 79th overall in KenPom. They have had balance on both sides of the ball, but have excelled more on their defense, allowing 66.9 points per game. Five Bulldogs average over double digits with Danny Wolf being the standout, averaging 14.3 points per game, and then also having 9.7 rebounds per game and 1.4 blocks per game. John Poulakidas was the hero for them against Auburn with six three’s and 28 points. The Aztecs are great at controlling the game through their defense and slow tempo on the offensive end, which is going to present issues for Yale. Jaedon LeDee will also be the best player on the floor and he just had a massive game against UAB and is primed to do it again. Yale should hang around in this game at first, but trust in the Aztecs to pull away and move on to the Sweet 16.
Pick: SDSU -5.5
