Investment: $1,641 Projection: $1,861.85
My projection for profit has increased from last week, from -100.49 to +220.85 on Draft Kings. Just a reminder, how I calculate being overweight and underweight on players is 1/12 = 8.33%. 12 is the number of teams that participate in best ball drafts.
Hits:
Jordan Addison (24%) – 120+ yards with 2 TDs. Except for Week 4’s doughnut, Addison has not scored less than 11.2 fantasy points in a week all season long. With Justin Jefferson still on the shelf for a few more weeks this big dog should continue to eat.
Josh Downs (12%) – this Indy rookie WR has double-digit DK points in 4 of the last 5 weeks. A late-round target that sometimes went undrafted in the early summer. He has emerged as the clear #2 option. Downs and Puka have been the two late WR steals that have propelled best ball teams to the top of the standings.
Kirk Cousins (12%) – ripping off almost 400 yards passing against the league’s top D got everyone’s attention. He now improves his MNF record to 3-10. Cousins has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 4 of the 7 weeks. Not bad for a QB who was taken around pick 90-100. Hopefully the Vikings can remain competitive until they get back J-Jeff. If so, the Vikings would be less likely to “rest” J-Jeff when he returns from his hamstring injury.
Jahmyr Gibbs (10%) – Gibbs had his best game of the young season with Montgomery sitting for the second time this season. Although most of his work was in garbage time, his 21-yard TD run was very impressive flashing the high-end speed that made him the 12th overall pick this past spring. He also showed off his receiving chops by turning 10 targets into 9 catches for 58 yards. With Montgomery out at least another week, expect this neophyte to have at least another big week.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba (10%) – my 3rd rookie WR on the Hit list this week! With DK sitting with an injury (a rarity) the Ohio State product had 63 yards with a TD by half. Unfortunately, he finished with 63 yards and a TD. This was his first double-digit fantasy point outing. He was not cheap this past summer, and he needs to have a few more weeks of this output to pay off his ADP price.
Saquon Barkley (9%) – the Giants offense might have turned a corner this past week getting big games from both Barkley and Waller. Their offense should be running through those two players as they are their most talented. Thanks, Captain Obvious! Their matchup this week against the well-rested Jets is gonna be tough, but expect Barkley to get all the touches he can handle.
Misses:
Travis Kelce (8%) & Patrick Mahomes (5%) – the winning Milly stack from this past weekend, Kelce scoring 38.9 with Mahomes at 37.9. Bee Jesus. For those who “gambled” on the 34-year-old TE, he has shown very little signs of slowing down. 4 TDs in 6 weeks, while averaging 87 yards per game sounds pretty fricking good to me. I am at about the field on Kelce at 8% and a little underweight on Mahomes. Those who wanted this stack had to pay a 1st and 2nd round pick to acquire. But the duo showed this past Sunday exactly why they cost that much.
Dalton Kincaid (8%) – yes he has been disappointing. But hear me out. Dawson Knox has been placed on IR, and Kincaid just had his best game as a pro turning 8 targets into 8 catches for 75 yards. He wasn’t cheap this past summer, but I believe we have yet to see the best from Kincaid. Tight ends usually take time to develop. With a couple of pro games under his belt, expect Kincaid to get better each and every week.
D’Onta Foreman (2%) –I am even with the field with both of his backfield mates, Herbert and Roschon (8%). During best ball summer the Chicago and Miami backfields were the toughest to figure out, with both not having clear starters and having 3 draftable RBs. Although Foreman has only had 1 usable week, it was a very usable week with him having 120 total yards with 3 TDs against what I guess you can call defense of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Kareem Hunt (0%) – one of the ONLY players I failed to draft this season. He is on zero of my 150 Draft Kings teams. He hasn’t been efficient in the time he has seen on the field this season, but Jerome Ford is due to miss some time with an ankle injury. Hunt scored 2 touchdowns this past week for a team that should be run-heavy the rest of the season. Although I drafted him as NE’s backup RB, Pierre Strong (5%) now steps into the 3rd down and change of pace back. Fingers crossed that Ford makes it back quickly as he is one of my highest owned RBs.
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