Today we have a eight game slate starting at 12 EST. Let’s digin to the options I prefer to have.
Jose Berrios vs HoustonAstros – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Berrios has always been a player who just has that extra juiceat home. That stands true this season as he holds a 1.77 ERA in with an 11.07K/9. The Houston Astros are a powerhouse offense, which may steer people away,but that doesn’t worry me at all. They have been scuffling offensively andalthough they aren’t striking out a ton, they aren’t hitting either. I am allin on Berrios as he is the only stud I am willing to pay for. I don’t see ablowup here at all and the upside is the highest on the slate.
Jon Gray @ MilwaukeeBrewers – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Jon Gray’s strikeout upside is one of the highest today and thisprice is too cheap for me. As I expect Christian Yelich to miss this one,that’s a huge relief for Gray. There are strikeouts in this lineup and Graywill definitely pick them out. The way he will find his strikeouts is through hisslider, which he throws a ton. The Brewers have a pretty high whiff percentageagainst the slider, as six players are over 30%. The Rockies are opening up asan underdog but I expect them to start the game as a favorite.
Mike Foltynewicz vs SanDiego Padres – $7,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The strikeout stuff has always been there for Foltynewicz, butthe ability to go deep into games has always been a major problem for him. ThePadres are a team who can easily strikeout 10 times against Folty and that’sabout what I expect here if he goes at least six innings. Another big plus forme is the matchup the Braves have with Matt Strahm. Opening as a -130 favoriteI personally think there is no chance of the Padres winning this game. The onething that stands out to me with the Padres is the MAJOR whiff percentage theyhave against sliders, which is Foltynewicz’s strikeout pitch. I wouldn’t besurprised if he eclipses 10-plus strikeouts in this one. I will say he is wayoverpriced on FanDuel.
Tyler Mahle @ New YorkMets – $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
I know how gross this seems, but I’m not really in love with allthese options on this slate. I am willing to take a flyer on Mahle as a SP2. Hestruggles against left-handed bats, and the Mets have three really good ones.If he can limit the power, there are strikeouts up and down this lineup. TheMets have been playing bad offensive ball this whole series and it couldcontinue in this one. As the total opens up at seven and a half, Vegas agreesthat we won’t see much offense. Mahle is more of a pitch to contact and groundball type of pitcher to righties (47.4%) and a fly ball pitcher to lefties(45.1%). Playing in Citi Field in this one helps his case, as it’s moredifficult to give up home runs. I love the case for Mahle here, i think he getsaround 17-20 if the Reds can get him a win here.