Week 1 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.
Quarterbacks:
Stud Quarterback: Baker Mayfield ($7,900 FD; $6,400 DK)
I fully expect the Browns to come out with guns blazing for their home opener. Baker Mayfield is going to try and feed the Big 3 in OBJ, Landry and Chubb. The Titans will be tasked with trying to stop this new and improved offense with big expectations. The home field advantage will be real on Sunday. The Browns win big and Baker shows off. See Chubb and OBJ below
Stud Pivot: Patrick Mahomes
Mid Quarterback: Jameis Winston: ($7,500 FD; $6,600 DK)
The 49ers defense is bad and they travel across the country to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jameis Winston doesn’t exactly have a stable of running backs to rely on so I am expecting more of a passing attack here. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard are all big play threats that will help carry Winston. I also love NFL DFS quarterbacks that are not afraid to run when the play breaks down and Winston has proven that he can get yards on the ground too. He should be good for mid 20s NFL DFS FanDuel points here with upside for more.
Mid Pivot: Jared Goff
Value Quarterback: Josh Allen ($6,900 FD; $5,600 DK)
You are going to see me play him a lot this year, especially if his price stays this low. Allen runs the ball and that is huge for me at quarterback in NFL DFS. Last season he RUSHED for eight touchdowns and 631 yards. There was admittedly a lot to be desired in the passing game but he did throw for over 2,000 yards with 10 touchdowns. Reports out of camp suggest he has improved with his decision making and accuracy. He has also looked sharp (most of the time) during the preseason. The Bills have improved around their young receiving corps with the offseason additions of vets like John Brown and Cole Beasley which only benefits Allen. If I’m punting in a GPP with a cheap QB it is going to be Josh Allen against the New York Jets.
Running Backs
Stud RB: Dalvin Cook: ($7,400 FD; $6,000 DK)
For NFL DFS you want to target running backs who are not splitting time and have a guaranteed workload. Dalvin Cook will be the lone back, in a game I predict to be high scoring. He also gets targeted regularly in the passing game. The Vikings only kept FOUR wide receivers on their roster so there is going to need to be passing production from the backs and tight ends. Last year the Falcons were TERRIBLE against pass catching RBs and I don’t think they have made enough adjustments this year to completely fix the problem. It should be worth noting that the Falcons had a lot of injuries last year and get back Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, however that doesn’t get me off DC. Cook is the 10th highest priced running back and is in arguably one of the best matchups. He plays at home and is fully healthy (which was his problem last year). Cook will be on my main GPP team. The price and matchup are just too good to ignore.
Stud RB: Nick Chubb ($7,400 FD; $6,400 DK)
I am HIGH on the Browns Week 1. The atmosphere in Cleveland is going to be electric. They have high hopes for this team and Baker and the Boys are going to score as many points as possible just to prove they belong. I love the Wide Receivers and QB, but also Mr. Chubb. Nick is going to get a full workload rushing as well as a few targets from Baker. Duke Johnson’s departure as the pass catching back should help slightly. The Titans defense is not one to be feared. They are going to be spread thin trying to defend the pass and this should cause them to not be 100% focused on stopping the run. Chubb should get near 20 touches, several Red Zone opportunities, and will get a few check down targets. The opportunity is there and expect the former college star to break out in his second season in the NFL (much like his old Georgia teammate Todd Gurley did in his sophomore year).
Update: Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 FD; $8,800 DK)
He does it all. He should get at least 15 rush attempts and double digit receiving targets is a real possibility too. I like him better on DraftKings because the of the PPR structure. He is expensive but that is because he is safe with very high upside. With all the value on the week one slate it shouldn’t be a problem fitting him in. He will go against the Rams who were not known to stop the run last year. They fly in from the West Coast all the way to Carolina to try and make up for their embarrassing Super Bowl loss. Win, lose or draw, McCaffrey is going to be a constant on the Carolina Offense yet again this season and is as safe as it gets at running back.
Wide Receiver
Stud WR: Odell Beckham Jr ($8,200 FD; $8,100 DK)
Update: He is high risk because of a lingering hip issue. If he is on the field I think he will be going full speed. His ownership will be lower than normal because of the injury concern. If OBJ is not hindered by his hip, he is in a great spot. Don’t go all in here but maybe get a share on larger field GPPs. Keep an eye on the news leading up to kickoff.
The Browns have a new toy in OBJ and they are going to make sure he gets his in the home opener. The argument can be made that he has the best hand(s) ever in NFL history (Yes, I mean that). There is nothing more that he is going to want to do then erupt for a huge game to not only impress his new Browns fans but rub the offseason trade right in the Giants face. Baker and OBJ are going to be dynamic together. This is a showtime QB with a showtime receiver. If Beckham Jr. doesn’t come down with a touchdown it will not be for a lack of effort. He will be getting plenty of targets and designed plays to get him in the endzone. If you want to save the $ you can go down to his old LSU counterpart Jarvis Landry. With the Titans defense having to focus more on Beckham, Landry will find himself with a little more space to operate.
Stud Pivots: ADAM THIELEN, Robert Woods
Mid WR: Mike Williams ($6,400 FD; $5,300 DK)
Here is a guy no one will own. The Chargers lost their franchise RB to a holdout and are now going to have to find a way to keep their remaining injury prone backs healthy. Austin Ekeler WILL unfortunately go down with injury this year and the Chargers know it. I expect a mix of both him and Justin Jackson for the time being, with a larger focus on the receiving game. The Chargers WR one, Keenan Allen, has not played in a single preseason game with a nagging ankle injury which moves Williams up to wide receiver 1B. His price is too cheap for the role he should play against the Colts. Quarterback Philip Rivers told Eric D. Williams of ESPN that he expects Williams to be a “Big Part” of the Chargers offense this season. Let’s get in on him before his price starts to rise and his ownership goes up. He is my favorite mid range Milli Maker wide receiver.
WR Midrange Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry
Value WR: Dede Westbrook ($5,900 FD; $4,800 DK)
I’m not really sure why the Chiefs are only favored over the Jags by 3.5 points. I was expecting at least a touchdown. Anyway, the Jags should be playing from behind here. I know people think the Jags are an elite defensive unit because of what they did in 2017, but they can also get blown up (see 2018) and who else is better than blowing up defenses then Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Why does this matter? Because Nick Foles should have to air it out in the second half and Westbrook is emerging as his favorite target. Fellow Jags WR Marqise Lee is coming back from missing the entire 2018 season and I don’t expect him to come out of the gate with a large workload expectation. D.J. Chark is an athletic freak but has yet to make the leap of being a consistent NFL option. Chris Conley is a new addition, however there is no reason to believes he will excel more in the Jacksonville offense than the lethal Chiefs offense where he was last year. All of these uncertainties at wide receiver just funnel me more towards Westbrook. I’ve seen him win GPPs before and this feels like a good week to get some NFL DFS shares.
WR Punt: Demetrius Harris
Tight End
Stud TE: Travis Kelce ($7,800 FD; $7,100 DK)
Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Hill and Kelce is the next best passing option. He is the top TE in the NFL and has the MVP throwing to him. The Chiefs also use their TE as an offensive threat more than any other team in the league. The Jaguars are not going to double cover him and that is going to be a mistake. Kelce should finish the week as one of the top scoring TEs, but he is also the most expensive. . At a position that regularly delivers zeros you can feel safe that Kelce is going to get you enough to keep you alive in GPPs. If we get lucky he will be much lower owned than he should be just because people will not want to target the Jags D.
Mid TE: O.J. Howard ($6,500 FD; $5,000 DK)
Jameis Winston shouldn’t have much resistance vs the San Francisco 49ers defense. Mike Evans is their top receiving option but O.J.. Howard is on the verge of a real NFL DFS breakout season. He has impressed all camp and has the trust of his quarterback. Adam Humphries was shockingly targeted second most on the Bucs last season and now is in Tennessee. DeSean Jackson was targeted fourth most and he now is also gone. These two departures should help funnel more looks towards the star Tight End that the Bucs know they have.
Value: Austin Hooper ($5,500 FD; $3,200 DK)
Don’t sleep on the Falcons offense. I like Hooper’s price. I like his role in this new Steve Sarkisianless offense. I like that Matt Ryan is a vet who spreads it around and doesn’t force throws to his superstar(s). I like that the Vikings will be least focused on Hooper with Julio, Ridley, Freeman and Sanu on the field. I like that this should be a high scoring game. I like his low ownership. I like Hooper as a punt.
Defense
- Chargers
- Eagles
- Seahawks
- Ravens
- Update: Browns
- Cowboys
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