Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.
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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers
1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA
DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)
Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.
In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.
2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX
DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)
It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.
Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.
3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK
DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)
He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.
My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.
4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR
DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)
Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.
Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.
5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL
DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)
Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…
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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers
1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)
The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.
2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI
DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)
Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.
3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)
The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.
4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN
DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)
Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.
5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA
DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)
Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look
6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS
DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)
Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.
Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.
7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO
DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)
Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.
8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)
Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.
Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.
9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC
DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)
Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.
Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.
10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC
DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)
Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.
Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.
Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers
1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL
DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)
He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.
2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF
DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)
San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.
3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND
DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)
Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?
4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB
DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)
The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.
5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ
DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)
Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.
6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN
DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)
The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.
7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU
DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)
On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.
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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris
