Perhaps the Week 7 DFS QB Picks will be more fruitful than last week, especially for those who got burned by Patrick Mahomes. There’s also us darned fools who underestimated Kirk Cousins (but didn’t call him a “weak link”), and for those who went with Jared Goff, well, we told ya.
As usual, the main slate’s the focus, so nuts to Chiefs-Broncos (Thursday night), Eagles-Cowboys (Sunday night) and Patriots-Jets (Monday night). The bye week also means no Browns, Buccaneers (Thank God), Panthers and Steelers.
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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers
1) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. LAR
DK ($6,300), FD ($7,900)
One could make a case of putting Ryan ahead of Watson, but Ryan isn’t remotely close to being the running threat that Watson is. Still, Ryan leads the league in both actual (2,011) and air (1,233) yards and will have a chance to light up a Rams defense that may not be up to the task of playing a track meet-style of contest that Atlanta will attempt to force.
The Rams are allowing 11.6 yards per catch, a total that could go higher now that Austin Hooper is a legit TE1 that can open the field for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, two of the best run after the catch receivers in the game. Ryan is a still a value play, especially for someone attempting 43 passes per contest. You can’t be faulted for going with Ryan instead of Watson and using the savings elsewhere.
2) Kyler Murray, ARI @ NYG
DK ($6,700), FD ($7,700)
The Giants are 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this a solid play on the undervalued Murray. He’s progressed over the past two weeks, completing 68.1% of his passes while raising his rating from 78.8 to 109.1 in October. The O-line is showing considerable improvement, as Murray has been sacked just one in his last 69 attempts.
Murray is now in the Top 10 in air yards (eighth, 934) and if Christian Kirk returns soon, he’ll go higher. Momentum is on Murray’s side and he’s worth the play with his current value.
3) Gardner Minshew II, JAC @ CIN
DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)
A bigger bargain than Murray, Minshew will be under the radar because of his tepid performance against a suspect Saints secondary last week. My only concern here is that with the Bengals ranked dead last in run defense, this could open the door for a monster afternoon for Leonard Fournette.
Minshew doesn’t do anything spectacular, yet he does have a 9-2 TD:INT margin and a lower bad throw completion rate (16.5%) than the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco. Even if he gets 25-28 attempts, he’ll be efficient enough to rack up points.
4) Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA
DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)
There’s plenty of work to make Allen Fantasy-viable on a consistent basis, but I like the fact he’s 27th in bad throw percentage at 14.1%. Allen is 12th in average depth of target at 8.7 and I’m enthused about the prospects of former CFL All-Star Duke Williams becoming more involved in the offense. The Dolphins are very QB-friendly, so take advantage of the one time Allen appears here.
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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers
1) Lamar Jackson, BAL @ SEA
DK ($6,800), FD ($8,400)
With each week, Jackson falls down the rankings in bad throw percentage, and that’s a good thing. The Seahawks allow 277.8 passing yards per contest, making Jackson’s 9.4 average depth per target more tempting to use. He finally had that game rushing against the Bengals, and while it’s too much (perhaps) to expect a similar effort, let’s be mindful of the fact that Seattle does allow 4.7 yards per carry.
2) Deshaun Watson, HOU @ IND
DK ($7,000), FD ($8,300)
Watson is on pace to account for 43 touchdowns, including 11 on the ground. That alone puts him in this category, but as good as he was in September, he’s downright lethal in October. He’s completed a staggering 77.3% of his passes with a 9.4 yards per attempt while accounting for eight scores (two rushing).
Sixth in average depth of target (9.6), Watson gets a Colts defense that 22 completions, 260 yards and two touchdowns per game. Indy must also be mindful that Watson averages 7.9 yards per scramble and that we haven’t seen a monster game from DeAndre Hopkins. Yet.
3) Jared Goff, LAR @ ATL
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)
The fleas from the dog Goff had on Sunday will linger for some, but it’s indoors and the Falcons’ secondary has let Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray look Canton-worthy the past two weeks. Atlanta has the third-worst defense against QBs Fantasy-wise, and if Goff can survive the Falcons blitzing him to no end (opponents average more than 14 blitzes per game on him), he has a chance to rebound nicely.
4) Kirk Cousins, MIN @ DET
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)
To hell with ball control. Let Cousins fling the damn ball, because it’s working. He’s gone from an average of 7.4 yards per attempt in September to 11.4 YPA in his two October games while completing 78.6% of his passes. Cousins is now in the Top 10 in air yards per pass attempt (4.4) after languishing in the mid 3s last month. The Lions allow 291.6 passing yards per game but are limiting passers to 1.2 TD tosses per. He’ll get the yards but I also think he’ll get the TDs, especially if they get TE Kyle Rudolph back into the flow.
5) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. BAL
DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)
Unlike many, I’m not enamored with this matchup. Yes, the Ravens are 29th overall against the pass. However, they’re 10th overall in Fantasy because they don’t allow touchdowns. B-More is allowing a TD pass per game on average, and QBs are averaging a mere 7.3 yards on the ground. Wilson is going to miss TE Will Dissly (Achilles, done for 2019), especially near the red zone, so it’s going to come down to whether WRs Jaron Brown and DK.Metcalf can fill in from the 4-6 targets per game that were going to Dissly.
6) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. OAK
DK ($6,400), FD ($7,600)
In a Sentence: Everything hinges on Davante Adams’ toe.
7) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. HOU
DK ($5,600), FD ($7,300)
In a Sentence: For all the giddy feelings about the Texans following their win over the Chiefs, the defense is still 27th in Fantasy against opposing QBs.
8) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. MIN
DK ($5,200), FD ($7,300)
In a Sentence: Only Jameis Winston has a better air yards per pass completion mark than Stafford’s 8.2.
9) Philip Rivers, LAC at TEN
DK ($5,500), FD ($7,600)
In a Sentence: He’s second to Patrick Mahomes in passing yards after the catch (825).
10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ WAS
DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)
In a Sentence: The Redskins allow 2.3 TD passes per game, and we have yet to see a monster game from Garoppolo….just sayin’.
Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers
1) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. ARI
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,200)
In a Sentence: The Cardinals are the worst Fantasy defense against opposing QBs, making Jones an interesting punt who becomes very intriguing if Evan Engram is available.
2) Teddy Bridgewater, NO @ CHI
DK ($5,300), FD ($7,000)
In a Sentence: The Bears allow 0.8 TD passes per game; if Bridgewater is the answer here, I sure as hell don’t want to know the question.
3) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. JAX
DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)
In a Sentence: On average, Dalton is blitzed 16.1 times per game, which means you may need a spatula to scrape him off the field.
4) Case Keenum, WAS vs. SF
DK ($4,600), FD ($6,500)
In a Sentence: I’d put good money that you’ll see Dwayne Haskins at some point.
5) Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA @ BUF
DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)
In a Sentence: The Bills are one of three teams (Patriots, 49ers) allowing fewer than 10 Fantasy points per game against opposing passers, so good luck with that, Ryan.
