Andrew Erickson Welcome to another Monday night preview article. It will come along with a video to break down Monday Night Football in all things DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian play of the game. So who is ready for some Monday night action between the 49ers and Seahawks? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Monday Night Football Showdown Contest.
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Value and Punt Plays
Tight end Ross Dwelley ($2,000) is the easy punt play in lineup builds with George Kittle doubtful for Monday night football. Dwelley should see the lion’s share of snaps Monday against Seattle. His price is too cheap for a starting player with significant playing time. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fifth-most receiving yards to tight end position this season. Dwelley ran just one fewer route than Kittle in Week 9.
Jaron Brown ($2,200) is interesting as he has three touchdown receptions in his last two games played versus the 49ers. Receiver David Moore ($1,200) has seen his snaps increase since Week 6. He has gone from 22.9%, 41.7%, and 49.2%, all the way up to 54.7% in Week 9. Brown’s snaps have decreased over that timespan.
Favorite Stack
With the 49ers favored by 6.5 points playing at home, the best stack to build with is quarterback Russell Wilson ($11,400). Wilson has been playing at an MVP level this season. In his last two games versus the 49ers, Wilson has thrown for a total of six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The obvious stacks to build Wilson around are the top Seahawks passing weapons in Tyler Lockett ($10,400), DK Metcalf ($7,800), and Chris Carson ($8,600).
Now Lockett and Metcalf both have tougher matchups with the 49ers allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the receiver position this season. I would prefer Lockett. He has scored at least 12 fantasy points in seven games this season. In seven of those games, Metcalf has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of them. You should have at least one build with both receivers, but I would not force Metcalf in. Worth noting Lockett has not surpassed 65 receiving yards in his last four games versus the 49ers.
Adding Carson makes a ton of sense because it gives you total market equity of the Seahawks potential touchdowns. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to backs over the past two weeks and will be without starting linebacker Kwon Alexander. I like Carson as an option in the captain spot because of his floor usage in the passing game and his touchdown upside. He also averages more points on the road (19) than at home (16). Going heavy Seahawks on offense I believe is the right play and bringing it back with Emmanuel Sanders ($10,200) and/or Deebo Samuel ($4,800). Seattle has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers over the past two weeks.
49ers Running Game
You will also want to have shares of 49ers running backs Tevin Coleman ($8,200) and Matt Breida ($6,200). After multi-game absences, left tackle Joe Staley (lower leg), fullback Kyle Juszczyk (knee) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) all returned to practice Tuesday and have a shot at returning for an important divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. If these guys return you need to increase your exposure to the 49ers running game. Both Coleman and Breida have scored significantly more points at home than on the road this season. Breida has averaged 16 fantasy points per game at home versus just 9.4 on the road. Meanwhile, Coleman has averaged 28.3 fantasy points per game at home versus 8.9 on the road.
Contrarian Plays
Without Alexander, the 49ers could find themselves extremely vulnerable versus tight ends. According to PFF, Alexander against the pass ranked eighth in pass coverage and second in passer rating against. That is why the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Things get more complicated here though because the Seahawks have multiple tight ends that could be featured or used. Jacob Hollister ($4,600) is the more obvious play with Luke Willson ($200) nothing more than a punt. Hollister has run the third-most routes (68) on the Seahawks over the past three weeks.
Kicker Chase McLaughlin ($3,600) is the backup kicker to Robbie Gould who is going to miss this game. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL in field goal attempts per game (2.5), and Seattle allows the fourth-most field goal attempts per game (2.4). Previously with the Chargers, McLaughlin averaged seven points per game in four starts.
A lot of people will play Jimmy Garoppolo ($11,000) because of his matchup on paper trumps Wilson’s. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks. But with the 49ers always wanting to run the ball (57.00% run play selection at home), I do not think he has the upside. He’s a fade for me. Seahawks DST ($3,200) is not good but could be a nice contrarian play. The 49ers at home have been averaging two giveaways per game.
In terms of Josh Gordon ($5,400), there’s a chance he does not even play, but I am not even sure what is ceiling would even be in this game. Coming off an ankle injury he is an easy fade for me.
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