Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
Looking back at Thursday Night’s large DK GPP, the winning line-up went with a double-ace configuration with Shane Bieber and Dinelson Lamet with a cost-effective 5 man San Diego stack to take down the $100K prize pool with a 200+ score on the night!
We will come back to this roster construction at the end – I promise.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
Looking back at last night’s slate and looking ahead to tonight, I think there is merit to paying up for both arms tonight and much of it as we will get into is a result of some soft pricing on DraftKings.
Yu Darvish ($10.5K) is one of three arms over $10K on this slate and with unknowns around Blake Snell’s pitch count (3-5 innings is his rumored stopping point) and Mike Clevinger having to face a dangerous Twins offense, the match-up at home for Darvish against the Pirates seems like the best pay up option both for floor and upside.
In the second half of last season, Darvish was one of the best strikeout arms in the league, racking up a 37.8% K rate in the second half of the season which was behind only Cole and Verlander. Not only did the K rate spike, but his walk rate PLUMMETED from 11.7% down to just 2.2% and this was all driven by a change in his pitch type/approach.
Take a look at the difference first half to second half in his pitch type:
- Fastball: 40% 1H and 28% 2H
- Cutter: 32% 1H and 38% 2H
- Slider: 17% 1H and 11% 2H
- Curveball: 4% 1H and 12% 2H
The reduced dependence on his fastball was the key, as this was a pitch generating the lowest whiff rate of any of his arsenal and by increasing the use of the cutter and tripling his use of the curveball, he got far more swings and misses.
His first start of 2020 he leaned heavily on the cutter, nearly 44% of the time against the Brewers, and in just 73 pitches he racked up 5 K’s on the back of an elite 15% swinging-strike rate. Don’t let the first half of last season skew your thinking – Darvish is every bit the elite arm and he is worth the pay up today against a weak Pirates line-up.
Ok, let’s get to the elephant in the room today. What in the sweet tomfoolery is DraftKings doing with Luis Castillo ($8K) today? We have a near 30% K arm pitching against a Detroit team that last season led all of baseball with the highest K rate against RHP at 26.6%.
I am sorry but it is as simple as locking Castillo in as your SP2 today on DK. The ownership will be there, sure you can argue leverage and variance and whatnot but the fact he is the 10th highest priced arm on DraftKings is laughable and it is just a spot you do not get cute with.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
In order to make the Darvish/Castillo build work, we need to find a stack in the $4K price range on DraftKings and luckily it is not difficult to find with the Chicago White Sox standing out as one of the best PP/$ stacks on this slate.
The White Sox will face off wth Royals lefty Kris Bubic, who has yet to make a start above AA and while he has shown K ability in Single-A, going up against the power righties in this White Sox lineup is a tall task for start numero uno above Single-A.
The White Sox have four bats in the middle of their lineup with a 200+ ISO mark against LHP including Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Ewin Encarnacion and Eloy Jimemez and that does not include the uber-talented rookie Luis Robert.
There are so many ways to mix and match this stack as you can argue any of the bats 1-7 are in play including lead-off man Tim Anderson and Catcher James McCann. With Abreu/E5 at similar price points, it also gives you the ability to mix and match at first base if multi entering with the same basic lineup construction.
The White Sox IRT sits only behind the Yankees and the game in Coors and the fact you can stack them up to 5 batters with ease and still get two top tier K arms, makes this a spot we lock and load.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
One of the reasons I look back and previous slates and note the winning GPP lineups is because I want to focus on roster construction and what we see win.
We see it time and time again – 5 man stacks on DK are always at the core and last night with Bieber/Lamet putting up 60+ at pitcher, you were off and running.
Tonight, a 5 man CWS stack with Darvish/Castillo has every bit the upside to take down a GPP in a similar fashion and I think it makes for a core foundation on this Friday Night of MLB action!
Have a good weekend all – Picks and Pivots will be back on Monday!
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