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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
This week all three of the top NASCAR Series head to Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas! This is the first time ANY of these Series will run here so there is no data for us to go back to, we just need to rely on past road course history for the drivers in these races
NASCAR DFS: COTA Breakdown
COTA is a fairly new track, less than 10 years old, and has hosted many of the world’s top series from Formula 1 to IndyCar and even motorcycle races. NASCAR is choosing to run the full 3.426-mile course which means there are not a lot of laps being run. In fact, the three series are running 42, 44, and 68 laps respectively, so dominator points will be at a premium in all three races. Typically, we look more at place differential and finishing position for points when we have races like this with very few laps.
Two of the most dominant road course racers in the Cup Series are also the highest priced drivers on the slate today, Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600 P17) & Chase Elliott ($10,500 P8). Truex is a four-time road course winner and Elliott won four straight road course races coming into the season until he was unseated by Christopher Bell ($8,300 P10). Both Truex and Elliott should be anchors for lineups today.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Like I mentioned in the open both Truex and Elliott are the dominant road course racers in the field and should still be considered for GPP’s even though they will be highly owned. For GPP’s I would probably lean Elliott because he was the better car in practice on Saturday. In cash games, I want to play them both together and you will still have over $7.2K left per driver which is plenty of salary based on the value we have in this race.
Kyle Larson ($10,200)
Starting Position: 2nd
Larson was potentially going to take the lead and win earlier this season at the Daytona RC when he wrecked late and finished 30th. In that race, Larson was 4th fastest in total speed and was 8th fastest in late run speed. On Saturday Larson was third fastest in practice, one of three Hendrick cars in the top in overall speed (Byron- 1st, Elliott- 5th).
Kyle Busch ($9,900)
Starting Position: 4th
Kyle all but dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and that track time will definitely help him on Sunday. While the competition will definitely be tougher, I still think the 18 could be in for the win when all is said and done on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Busch pushed his car in the heavy rain and ended up 4th fastest.
William Byron ($9,200)
Starting Position: 5th
Byron is currently a top 10 machine and comes in with 11 straight top 10’s and back-to-back 4th place finishes. In Saturday’s rain-soaked practice, Byron was the fastest car by over half a second (that’s a lot for NASCAR) and should easily find himself in contention for a third straight top 5 on Sunday. Before his wreck at the Daytona road course earlier this season Byron has three straight top 10 finishes at road courses (6th, 6th, 8th).
Remaining Top Tier drivers:
Kevin Harvick ($9,700) P11: Harvick had a good day in the Xfinity race on Saturday and has a shot at the win on Sunday
Joey Logano (9,500) P6: Logano has the second-best avg speed ranking behind Elliott over the last two seasons at road courses. I would look for Logano to be in contention for the top 5 on Sunday
Denny Hamlin ($10,100) P19: Hamlin had a power steering issue in qualifying, but they believed they fixed the issue. If Hamlin’s car is fine then he will be one of the top plays in this race. Hamlin has PD upside and is a good bet for a top 5 at COTA
Ryan Blaney ($9,100) P9: Blaney is starting exactly where he ran in practice on Saturday and should be a contender for a top 10. Blaney has finished 12th or better in all but two road course races since 2017 and has a 6.4 average finish.
Brad Keselowski ($9,300) P24: Keselowski was bad in practice and bad in qualifying. These were not his first laps here because he did test at COTA earlier this year with Truex and Elliott, but unless he is playing possum, Keselowski doesn’t seem like a top play today
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Christopher Bell ($8,300)
Starting Position: 10th
Bell won the only other road course races this season and will definitely be a threat for another top 5 on Sunday. In practice, Bell ran the 6th best practice lap which was 1.3 seconds off the top lap run by Byron. Bell seems underpriced for his upside on Sunday. I also think that Bell doesn’t get too much ownership and he will be viable in cash and GPP.
AJ Allmendinger ($8,500 – P7) & Austin Cindric ($8,700 – P3)
I think both Dinger and Cindric are solid mid tier plays for this race. They both raced in the Xfinity race on Saturday and performed well so they have track experience which is key. I wouldn’t roster them both together because of the volatility of they’re cars. My preference would be AJ for cash/SE and Cindric for GPP’s.
Michael McDowell ($7,400)
Starting Position: 23rd
McDowell is an excellent road course racer and could push for a top 10 today. In his last four road course races, McDowell has finished 12th or better in three of them. McDowell was 10th in practice on Saturday and looked really good in the rain, which there is a chance we get some rain during this race
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,100 – P13) – Busch had his best finish (4th) this season at the Dayton RC, maybe gets right here. Alex Bowmn ($8,900 – P12), Cole Custer ($7,800 – P14), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 – P21)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ross Chastain ($6,000 P20) : Chastain ran a top 10 practice lap on Saturday and has PD upside. Great cash play as well.
- Chris Buescher ($6,900 P28) : Buescher is another great road course racer who will probably go underowned today. In his last three RC starts, Buescher has an avg finish of 12th
- Chase Briscoe ($6,400 P27): Briscoe is another good road course racer and has won at lower levels. If you need the $500 I don’t mind dropping down to Briscoe over Buescher one bit.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,600 P15): Suarez and the 99 team seem to be getting better every week. Earlier at Daytona RC in 2021 Suarez was 16th
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,200 P22): Stenhouse is an average road course racers, look for him to finish top 20, maybe top 15 if he catches a break or two
- Ryan Newman ($6,700 P34): Newman can’t really hurt you at this price, but expect him to be highly owned
- Ryan Preece ($5,700 P36): Preece had a top 10 at the Daytona RC earlier this season, but don’t expect that. Look for Preece to finish top 20
- Ty Dillon ($5,500 P33): Dillon was 19th in this car at the Daytona RC earlier and I expect a similar finish on Sunday
- James Davison ($5,000 P32): Davison is a solid road course racer who will go overlooked. Davison was fast in practice finishing with the 20th best lap
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