NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Pocono 6/26/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend we have TWO Cup Series races from Pocono Raceway with the first being run Saturday afternoon. Pocono is nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle” and is a 2.5-mile “superspeedway”. Saturday’s race is 130 laps of which Kyle Larson ($12,500) likely leads over 100 of in route to his fourth straight win and seventh straight top 2 finish. Of course, it’s also likely someone finally knocks Larson out of victory lane, though it will be difficult to do.

I am not sure it can really affect our DFS lineups but we could see some drivers who are running in the teens try to position themselves around P20 at the end of the race since Sunday’s starting lineup is determined by how this race ends. Sunday’s lineup will be the top 20 inverted and then 21-38 by the formula NASCAR usually uses to determine lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,500)

Starting Position: 1st

It’s Kyle Larson series and the rest of the field is just living in it. Larson is riding a three race winning streak, and has six straight finishes of 2nd or better. I honestly don’t think you can fade Larson at this point if you’re only playing one lineup. I will be playing multiple lineups like usual and will probably have 90% Larson again. Like I mentioned in the open, I think Larson could lead over 100 laps in this 130 lap race and I also think you will need him in your build to have a shot at a takedown.

Chase Elliott ($11,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Elliott starts deep in the field this week but should be back in the top 10 by the end of stage 1. It’s not unusual for Elliott to start towards the rear of the field as he generally fails pre-race inspection every couple of weeks. If you take out Elliott’s “DQ” finish last week he has not finished lower than 7th in any of the previous 6 races and has an average finish of 3.3. Elliott should come home in the top 10 on Saturday and be part of the optimal lineup with Larson.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500)

Starting Position: 18th

Pocono is clearly one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks. In his last 11 races here, Keselowski has finished top 11 ten times. In fact, the only time Keselowski finished lower than 11th was when he wrecked in 2018 with just 45 laps to go. Keselowski’s salary is cheap enough that you can pair him with the Larson and Elliott to make a good GPP build. It will take some risky value plays to make it work, but it is feasible.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200)

Blaney, like Elliott, will start towards the rear of the field, but for completely different reasons. Last Sunday at Nashville Blaney lost his breaks coming out of turn 2 and hit the wall hard. Pocono is one of Blaney’s better track and in 10 starts here he has only finished lower than 12th twice and owns a win here in 2017. If you can’t make a lineup you’re comfortable rolling out with Larson and Elliott, Blaney is a suitable replacement with $800 in savings.

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 2nd

William Byron has put together a great string of races at Pocono over his career. In six career races at Pocono, Byron has never finished lower than 18th and has finished top 10 in four out of six. Byron is another cheaper option to pair with Larson and Elliott or Blaney that will give you some flexibility.

Other Options: Martin Truex ($10,700 – P15), Denny Hamlin ($9,700 – P10), Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Chris Buescher has a win at Pocono and that was one of only two top 10 finishes he has had here. Buescher is having his best season as a regular in the Cup Series and I believe he could pull his third top 10 finish at Pocono on Saturday. If you take out his poor finish last week when he wrecked, Buescher has an average finish of 11.8 over his last six races and has three top 10’s in that span

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Matt DiBenedetto has not been running well of late and hasn’t finished better than 18 over the last six races. Before this bad run, Matty D had three straight top 10’s, and two top 5’s in three races. Last season at Pocono DiBenedetto had finishes of 13th and 6th. I am worried about using DiBenedetto because of his recent struggles but his salary and potential place differential upside make him worth the risk

Austin Dillon ($7,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Dillon is having a great season in 2021 and it should continue come Saturday. In 17 races this season, Dillon has only finished lower than 17th twice. Dillon doesn’t have a great track record at Pocono, but he does have 11 top 20 finishes in 14 races here, and last season he finished 19th and 14th at Pocono. Much like with the rest of the drivers in this tier I am hunting for value with upside to make the top tier drivers we need fit and Dillon fits the bill.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,600 – P13), Tyler Reddick ($7,900 – P16), Christopher Bell ($8,200 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Erik Jones ($6,400) – P22: Super cheap price for a driver that has been overperforming this season
2. Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – P28: Briscoe has been improving as the season goes on and I expect a top 15 for Briscoe this week
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,500) – P14: Suarez has had some great success at Pocono in his career (when in good equipment). In his 6 races before 2020, Suarez has three top 10’s.
4. Cole Custer ($6,300) – P26: I really like Custer’s PD upside for his cheap price.
5. Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P31: Cheap and has great PD upside, what’s not to like. Plus he’s running the truck race before this one as well
6. Ryan Newman ($5,800) – P19: Newman starts a little higher than we like, but his salary makes him playable.
7. Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P23: Lajoie has four straight top 20’s and it’s hard to overlook the potential here for the cheap price tag
8. Ross Chastain ($6,800) – P6: Chastain is starting to turn it on as the season progresses. In his last four races, Chastain has three top 7 finishes.
9. Bubba Wallace ($6,100) – P20: Wallace and Team 23XI Racing have figured it out it would seem. In his last five races, Wallace has three top 15 finishes.
10. Quin Houff ($4,700) – P37: Houff didn’t even make a lap last week and will most likely come in under 2% ownership on Saturday. There is potential for a top 35 on Saturday.

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