NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Watkins Glen 8/8/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! Each week, I break down the field and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome back, everyone! After a hiatus because of the Summer Olympics NASCAR is finally back at the track this weekend. This weekend all three series are at Watkins Glen International Raceway in upstate New York, a 3.4-mile road course featuring 11 turns.

Watkins Glen is NASCAR’s oldest road course and some would consider it the best. Drivers usually drive very aggressively here and that was evident by how both races on Saturday turned out. There has been a trend over the past 5 races that I think ends this week. Over the last five races here the winner has started in the top 6 four times and has an average starting position of 5.8. During this same time, the winner has led an average of 33.4 laps per race.

Chase Elliott ($10,600) starts 11th on Sunday and has won back-to-back races here and has also won back-to-back road course races this season. Elliott is the favorite to win this race and will be in the majority of my lineups and he is the best play on this slate in my opinion.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

I already mentioned Elliott in the open so I won’t spend more time on him. He is projected as the highest owned driver but also has the projected point total.

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Starting Position: 20th

Busch is a two-time winner at WGI and will be in contention for a third on Sunday. In 2019, the last time the series raced here, Busch finished 11th, but that should have been a top 5. Busch had some mishaps on the track and a pit road speeding penalty that led to him finishing 11th. This season Busch has three top ten’s in four road course races. If you take out the Daytona Road Course (where he wrecked), Busch has an average finish of 6th in the remaining three races.

Kurt Busch ($10,000)

Starting Position: 17th

From one Busch to the other, Kurt has been as good, or better, of a performer at road courses than his little brother this season. Kurt has an average finish of 10.3 in his four races this season including three top tens and two top 5’s. I believe both Kurt (20%) and Kyle (30%) will be upfront most of the day and should compete for top 5’s, but Kurt will be the much lower owned of the two brothers.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)

Starting Position: 9th

Truex is another driver who excels at road courses and doesn’t need his accolades written up again. I will just say that Truex has three straight top 2 finishes at Watkins Glen and is someone you need to consider for your builds on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($10,200)

Starting Position: 4th

Larson has become one of the series top road course racers in 2021 and should finish in the top 5 on Sunday. In his last race here, Larson finished 8th and was 5th in total speed ranking as well as 6th fastest late in a run. With pit strategy being crucial here, a driver who can make the best of his car late in a run is key as we say with Ty Gibbs on Saturday.

Other Options: William Byron ($9,800 – P15), Denny Hamlin ($9,400 – P6), Joey Logano ($9,600 – P2)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chase Briscoe ($8,300)

Starting Position: 27th

Briscoe will be popular on Sunday, but like I keep saying we need to just eat good chalk. This season Briscoe has two top 10’s but were 6th place finishes at the last two road course races and I expect another one from him on Sunday. Briscoe ran in the ARCA race on Friday night but had issues with his car and did not finish but he was running top 10 for the majority of the race before his issues.

Michael McDowell ($7,200)

Starting Position: 25th

I know McDowell is not someone I usually recommended and someone I rarely ever give a full write-up to, but here we are. McDowell is a good road course driver and top tens at both COTA and the Daytona Road Course this season. Watkins Glen is also one of McDowell’s better tracks with five straight top 20 finishes.

Erik Jones ($7,000)

Starting Position: 22nd

Here is another driver that most of you will be like “I’m not playing him”, but hear me out, please. Jones was running a great race here in the Xfinity Series race Saturday afternoon before he lost his brakes and finished 36th. Jones spent the majority of the day in the top 15 and was looking good for a top 10 finish before his wreck. In three races in the Cup Series at WGI, Jones has three top 10’s and two top 5’s. Now I know these finishes were in different equipment, specifically the two top 5’s that came in JGR cars, but Jones is having success at road courses in 2021 with his RPM #43. Jones’s worst finish at a road course this season is 19th at Road America and I expect another top 20 on Sunday.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($8,100 – P12), Christopher Bell ($8,800 – P7), Chris Buescher ($7,800 – P24), Daniel Suarez ($7,500 – P21)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Austin Dillon ($6,100) – P16: Dillon ran the Xfinity race on Saturday but his day ended early. DraftKings price for Dillon is criminaly low which will make him semi popular, but not enough that he can’t make a difference in your lineups (sub 20%)
2. Corey Lajoie ($5,800 ) – P29: This season Lajoie has finished 21st or better in the last three road course races and has been seeing a vast improvement in his finished lately.
3. Ryan Preece ($5,500) – P23: Preece is cheap enough that if he finishes mid 20’s he doesn’t hurt you. I don’t know that we need to go this low with the value in the low $7K range though.
4. Cole Custer ($6,500) – P19: Custer has a top 10 average finish in the lower NASCAR series’s here, and I think that could translate to a top 20 finish for him on Sunday.
5. James Davison ($5,900) – P36: Davison is a good road course driver and nobody will roster him on Sunday. There is some decent upside starting next to last for Davison and if we have some early carnage it could guarantee a postinve PD day for him.
6. Bubba Wallace ($6,600) – P26: Wallace is not great at road courses, just ask him he will tell you. But, this season Wallace and 23XI racing have seen their team get better which has led to better finished for Wallace. I don’t know if he can pull of a top 15, but a top 20 is definitel in the cards.

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