NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Darlington 9/5

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week the Cup Series is at Darlington Raceway, one of the most difficult race tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Darlington is known as the “Lady in Black” or “The Track Too Tough to Tame” by most fans and drivers. This is a place where the high line is usually the best way to run and a lot of these cars will have the “Darlington Stripe” when it’s all said and done.

Unlike the Xfinity race on Saturday, our builds will not be straight place differential builds. Two drivers are must play in my book for their place differential upside, but outside of them, it is about finishing position and dominator points. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000) led 248 of 293 laps here in May meaning that if you didn’t roster him you weren’t having a good day. This is why I say we need to look for drivers who can lead a lot of laps and pick up those dominator points. Truex is definitely someone who can do that again, but he isn’t the only one.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Larson has excelled at Darlington in his career and has finished inside the top 3 in four of his last five trips here. Included in that is his 2nd place finish here in May. Larson has also faired really well at high tire wear tracks this season. If you remove his poor finish at Atlanta 2 (late pit road penalty caused him to finish 18th) he has an average finish of 2.7 far and away the best in the series. Larson has never won here, but that will change on Sunday I believe. There are 367 laps to pick up dominator points on and there is a good chance Larson leads a lot of those laps on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Starting Position: 10th

As I mentioned in the open, Truex absolutely dominated this race in the spring and will most likely once again be fighting for the win at the need. Truex is a two-time winner here at Darlington and had a chance to win this race last fall but Truex and Elliott wrecked while racing for the lead. Truex also dominated that race leading 196 laps and winning both the first and second stage. This season at similar tracks, MTJ has an average finish of 4th and has the 2nd best speed ranking.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is a three-time winner at Darlington and while he is winless this season, there is a good chance Hamlin could get his first victory in 2021 on Sunday. This season at high tire wear tracks, Hamlin has the 5th best speed ranking. Hamlin has top 5’s in three of his last four races at Darlington as well.

Kyle Busch ($11,200)

Starting Position: 12th

This season at similar track types Kyle Busch has been outstanding. Busch is the only driver to finish top 10 in every race at a high tire wear track and has an average finish of 3.3 in the last three. It has been 13 years since Busch won a race here, but since 2010 he has only finished worse than 11th one time (1st race in 2020). Busch has an average speed ranking of 2.3 at these track types and has the #1 overall speed ranking this season.

Other Options: William Byron ($10,700 – P14), Kevin Harvick ($9,800 – P9) Joey Logano ($10,100 – P11), Chase Elliott ($9,200 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($7,800)

Starting Position: 34th

I know everyone is programmed to avoid the chalk, but in NASCAR that is not the case. Buescher will be a high owned play, but he also has the potential to be the top overall play which you cannot fade and expect to get a takedown. Buescher ran exceptional well here at Darlington in the spring finishing 9th. Not only did he finish well, Buescher also ran well throughout the race. Buescher had the 8th best speed late in a run (VERY important at high tire wear tracks), 9th fastest speed ranking, and had an average running position of 11.6. There is a good chance Buescher can finish with another top 10 here, but I view him more as a mid-teens play.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700)

Starting Position: 30th

DiBenedetto had a great run going at Daytona, and then he got caught up in the big one late in the race. Matty D is racing for a job next season so he will be trying to put on a show and potentially steal a win in this race. Similar to Buescher, DiBenedetto will be a chalky play but is another play that you can’t ignore. Heading into Daytona, DiBenedetto had an average finish of 8.6 and over has last five at Darlington he has three finishes of 14th or better. I see the 21 car as a mid to high teens driver on Sunday. If you want to fade of him or Buescher, DiBenedetto would be m choice, but I plan on having plenty of both.

There is a log jam of drivers in this tier that all seem to project out the same for me.

All four of Chastain, Blaney, Bell, and Dillon project for similar point totals (39.15-39.85) and ownership (19% – 26%). Ross Chastain would be my favorite play of the four followed but Austin Dillon. Blaney and Bell are good GPP options but they have a great down side than Dillon and Chastain

Other Options: Cole Custer ($7,100 – P31)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900) – P29: Stenhouse doesn’t have a great recent history at Darlington, but his team has been running well of late. Since Nashville (June 20th), Stenhouse has six top 15 finishes and a top 10 in 10 races.
2. Chase Briscoe ($6,300) – P24: Briscoe and the 14 team have been stradily improving throughout the season and should be a low teens driver on Sunday. Last time the series was here, Briscoe finished 11th.
3. Ryan Newman ($5,700) -P19: Darlington is one of Newman’s best tracks, even this late in his career. In his last four races here, Newman has an average finish of 13.5 and has finished no worse than 15th.
4. Erik Jones ($6,100) – P22: Darlington is probably Jones’s best track and before he made the downgrade in equipment he had never finished lower than 8th. This season he came home 18th, but was running right outside the top 15 before he hit the wall and had to make an unscheduled pitstop.
5. Bubba Wallace ($6,000) – P17: Wallace had himself a day with a P2 finish at Daytona last week. I think he keeps this momentum going and earns himself a top 15 on Sunday. At the last high tire wear track (Atlanta) Wallace finished 14th, I think he can duplicate that or better it on Sunday.
6. & 7. Corey Lajoie ($5,500 – P25) & Anthony Alfredo ($5,800 – P32): Both of these drivers are pure place differential plays for cheap. I don’t love either but they are pretty safe plays that will be sub 10% owned.

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