NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 10/3

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Weekend FInale from Talladega!

As expected Saturday’s doubleheader was full of big wrecks and plenty of cars hitting the junkyard. We did have two drivers getting their first career wins, which was not expected was great to see. Sunday will be much of the same, but I don’t expect to see a first-time winner, but you never know.

Looking back at how the spring Talladega race went we can expect plenty of cars coming from that back to finish with great days. In April only three drivers starting in the top 10 would finish there and nine drivers starting 21st or lower finished inside the top 20. While we will want to load up on drivers starting towards the rear getting 1-2 drivers starting towards the front will be a good idea. Looking back over the last nine races at Talladega no driver starting lower than 12th has won the race and the last time someone outside the top 20 has won was 2014 (Denny Hamlin – P34).

Even though we are looking for some drivers starting towards the front, we still aren’t chasing dominator points. In the first race this season here, 17 of 40 drivers led at least one lap and the driver with the most laps led (Hamlin – 43) finished 32nd.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Haley ($9,400)

Starting Position: 38th

I expect Haley to be one of the highest-owned drivers, but there is a chance that he is good chalk. Haley will not be in his usually #77 Spire Chevy, but instead, he is in the Kaulig #16. Kaulig always has good cars in Superspeedway races in both Xfinity and Cup Series. Kaz Grala has driven this car the previous three Superspeedway races in 2021 and he wrecked twice but did finish 6th at Talladega. I expect Haley to have a similar day to Grala at Talladega on Sunday.

Aric Almirola ($9,200)

Starting Position: 20th

Aric Almirola and Superspeedways are a match made in heaven. Two of Almirola’s three career wins have come on Superspeedways. Almirola has also finished top 10 at Talladega in eight of his last ten races, but he did finish 15th here earlier this season. That finish was also when his team was still trying to figure things out, but recently the 10 team has been hitting on all cylinders with nine straight top 20 finishes.

William Byron ($9,800)

Starting Position: 10th

Byron is another driver who is becoming something of a Superspeedway whisperer. Over the last three Talladega races, Byron has an average finish of 5.7, a series-best, and has finished 11th or better in each race. Byron finished 2nd here earlier this season and 4th at this race last season. It may be a long shot, but I think Byron wins this race on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700)

Starting Position: 4th

I like that DraftKings priced Blaney up for Sunday’s race, because of this his ownership should be extremely low. Blaney has been of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series for years now. Blaney won this race back in 2019 and then followed it up with a win in the spring race in 2020. At this race last year, Blaney got caught up in a late wreck, but he was back to his usual Superspeedway self with a 9th place finish.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,500 – P1), Kurt Busch ($10,000 – P14), Ross Chastain ($9,600 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ryan Newman ($7,500)

Starting Position: 25th

I know, I know you guys don’t want to play Newman but at this salary on both sites and where he starts, he is a solid play. Newman may not be the driver he used to be, but at Superspeedways, he can still get it done. In his last five at Talladega, Newman has three finishes of 7th or better and finished 13th earlier this season here. In the last race at this track type, Newman finished 3rd at Daytona in August.

Chris Buescher ($7,400)

Starting Position: 24th

Buescher is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series and it is showing with his recent success at this track type. Before NASCAR penalized the 17 team at this race in 20202, Buescher had finished 6th, giving him back-to-back 6th place finishes. Buescher also ran well at Daytona in August where he finished 2nd. Buescher should be seen as a threat for a top 10 on Sunday.

Joey Logano ($7,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Joey Logano is a quality Superspeedway racer even though he hasn’t had the finishes to show for it. Earlier this season Logano did summersaults through the backstretch. Before this poor three-race stretch, Logano had five great races at Talladega where he averaged a 5th place finish. During this five-race stretch, Logano finished no worse than 11th, had one win, and had four top 5’s.

Other Options: Landon Cassill ($7,200 – P40), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ryan Preece ($6,700) – P27: Preece projects as the highest scoring driver on this slate. At first glance that seems odd, but when you look at his history at Talladega I can see why. In his five career races here, Preece has never finished lower than 18th and finished 10th at this race last fall.
2. Erik Jones ($6,500) – P26: Jones traditionally does well at this track type. Earlier this season he was running top 10 when he was caught up in a last lap wreck taking him down to 27th. In two races here in 2020 Jones had two top 5 finishes. In August at Daytona, Jones finished 11th.
3. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,000) – P21: Stenhouse is one of the top Superspeedway racers in NASCAR. Yes, he may race too hard and that does result in his getting caught up or causing wrecks, but he also has had plenty of success at this track type. Stenhouse has wrecked in the last two Dega races, but prior to that he has three top 5’s and four top 10’s in five races.
4. Cole Custer ($6,800) – P28: Custer has finished 11th and 10th in the last two Superspeedway races this season. Custer is really only a play on DraftKings, his price is just unreasonably high in FanDuel
5. Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P19: Wallace has 7 races at Talladega and if take out the two times he’s wrecked, his average finish is 18.4. As we’ve seen Wallace has been running much better and at Daytona in August he finished 2nd. Wallace is only playable on DK since FD’s algorithm is broken and priced him up like Kyle Larson on a 1.5 mile track.
6. Tyler Reddick ($6,400) – P13: Reddick is an under the radar top SS driver all of a sudden and he has back-to-back 7th place finishes at Talladega. If Reddick can manage another top 10 finish, he should make value at this price, on both sites.
7. Corey Lajoie ($6,900) – P29: Lajoie is a low 20’s driver at Superspeedways. Over his last five Talladega races, Lajoie has four finishes of 22nd or better.
8. Chase Briscoe ($5,600) – P17: Briscoe showed out well in his first Cup Series trip to Talladega with an 11th place finish. As the season has progressed, Briscoe has become more comfortable with his new car and team and I expect another top 15 from Briscoe with top 10 upside.

Lastly, if you want to employ our full #StacktheBack strategy there are a few of the real cheap guys that you can run. All of BJ McLeod ($4,700 – P32), Garrett Smithley ($5,200 – P37), Quin Houff ($4,500 – P35), Joey Gase ($4,900 – P36), and James Davison ($5,500 – P39) offer up some huge upside if this turns into something similar to what we saw happen in the Truck Series where more than half the field wrecked out.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!