StixPicks 
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 16 NFL DFS GPP slate! Happy Holidays to everyone! I’ll make this article a bit more brief as we all have other things to do this weekend than read NFL articles. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.
It’s a rather condensed player pool for me this week. There are a lot of low-total games and then a couple higher-total games with great fantasy players all around. I’ll be focusing most of my energy there. Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
LAR/MIN
BAL/CIN
CHI/SEA
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD)
Stafford is likely to be the most popular quarterback on this slate and usually that is an auto-fade for me, but the AETY Model loves this matchup and I personally do as well. Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson are the clear GPP leverage plays here, but I have such a hard time handicapping that backfield and truly believe this is a ceiling-situation for Stafford and the passing attack. I’ll eat the Stafford chalk and get different elsewhere in my builds.
Key Pairing(s): Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee
Key Run-back(s): Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin, Alexander Mattison
Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD)
As written in the Cash Game Checkdown, I love the savings in Joe Burrow this weekend at home, against a pass-funnel Baltimore defense that is decimated. At 5-8% ownership (projected), Burrow has all of the boxes checked for a great NFL DFS GPP lineup signal caller.
Key Pairing(s): Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, CJ Uzomah, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon
Key Run-back(s): Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown
*UPDATE: No Huntley and no Lamar Jackson… Likely will not force a run-back on the Baltimore side. This game got a lot less sexy.
Russell Wilson ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD)
It wouldn’t be my style if I didn’t include a 1-2% owned flyer for the weekend… Welcome back, Russell Wilson! The Bears’ secondary is full of practice squad players and should provide Wilson and company multiple paths to a ceiling fantasy outing, finally, in 2021. There are many concerns with this Seattle offense (mainly that they have nothing to play for) but I will roll the dice with confidence that Russ gets back to cooking in Week 16, at home against the Bears.
Key Pairing(s): DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Key Run-back(s): Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Allen Robinson (if active)
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
- James Robinson – best matchup on the slate. Hard to ignore and do not care about ownership.
- Miles Sanders – double-digit home favorite running back at 10% ownership. Easy pivot in the value range of chalk running backs (Ronald Jones, David Montgomery, James Robinson, etc.)
- Najee Harris – Everyone will be paying down at running back leaving a true, 20+ touch, dual-threat workhorse under 10% in ownership. Chris Jones is back for Kansas City, other than that, Najee Harris is in an excellent spot.
- Cordarrelle Patterson – another dual-threat, high-upside running back with a matchup against Detroit. Atlanta has the highest implied team total they’ve had in weeks so I love to see the trust Vegas has in this offense in Week 16.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – double-digit home favorite running back at 5% ownership… If Kelce and Hill are not activated, CEH is in for heavy usage on Sunday against a terrible Pittsburgh run defense (30th in run defense DVOA). I’m still interested if they’re active.
- Josh Jacobs – 3-down running back against the Denver Broncos run defense at 5% ownership? Yep.
- Michael Carter – I’ll go right back to the well in a game with two horrible defenses, the week after Michael Carter chalk let-down the whole DFS community.
Honorable Mention: Sony Michel, Joe Mixon, Damien Harris, Saquon Barkley
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
- Ja’Maar Chase – just in love with the matchup this week. Super affordable on FanDuel. Tee Higgins is also a fine play, but I prefer the “X” wide receiver against a blitz’ heavy Baltimore defense.
- DK Metcalf – Russell Wilson’s #1 target. The blowup game is coming and coming soon. Tyler Lockett is also a fine play. I’m very interested in the double stack because if I’m rostering Russ in NFL DFS GPP lineups, I will need him to have a ceiling game to fight off the Stafford, Herbert, and Hurts good chalk. If Russ goes off, I like the odds of DK and Lockett going off together, if Russ fails, my lineup as a whole will fail.
- DJ Moore – only game in town for a run-back to Tom Brady stacks with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Carolina will have to move the ball through the air if they want to keep this one competitive.
- Darnell Mooney – Easy, affordable, run-back to my Russel Wilson lineups who should see a good bit of Ugo Amandi.
- Odell Beckham Jr. – Everyone is simply going to stack Stafford and Cooper Kupp, which is fine, they’ll likely crush, but I will be adding Odell Beckham into that stack as well in hopes Stafford has a ceiling game and the 3-5% owned Odell Beckham is the difference maker for my builds. Odell absolutely destroyed Cam Dantzler in coverage earlier this year when Baker Mayfield overthrew or under-threw Beckham in a game which should have produced 2+ Beckham touchdowns… Stafford won’t make those mistakes.
- Marvin Jones – highest upside of these salary saving Jacksonville wideouts and the sportsbooks agree, as Jones has the highest receiving yard props he’s had in months. The only downside is Trevor Lawrence.
Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
- Mark Andrews – highest floor on the slate at the tight-end position and easy run-back to Bengals’ stacks.
UPDATE: Downgrade with Josh Johnson. - Rob Gronkowski – other than Antonio Brown, he’s the only trusted game in town for Tom Brady.
- Kyle Pitts – A cheap, sub-5% owned Kyle Pitts against the Lions’ secondary? You’re getting a stud wide receiver at an affordable tight-end price tag.
- Cole Kmet – Cheap run-back who gets a significant amount of snaps from the slot (Ugo Amandi). Nick Foles has a career of data that supports rostering his top tight-end.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Tyler Conklin, CJ Uzomah
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
