Dave Gloeckner MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/6
The pitching options are a lot better on this smaller slate, not that it was a difficult task to be better than yesterday. We actually have players that we’ll want to play tonight and the ownership should be a little less concentrated. Let’s talk about who all we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/6 and find green screens!
Aces
Cristian Javier
I think the number one option tonight is a tough call and I have Javier with a slight lead. Even though his 3.54 xFIP is higher than the 2.58 ERA, it’s not a terrible number and Javier is backing that up with a massive 34.3% K rate. His swinging-strike rate is at a career-high 13.7% and his four-seam must play really well in the batter’s box. It has a whiff rate of 28.5% and 60 strikeouts despite Javier throwing it 61.5% of the time this year. Hopefully, he gets a bunch of righties since he dominates that side of the plate with a 43% K rate, a 1.43 FIP, and a .211 wOBA. Granted, the left side still whiffs 26.8% so it’s not like he can’t handle them at all but the xFIP does come up to 4.26 which can be a slight concern. Javier is one of those pitchers that can flourish in the face of giving up a lot of fly-balls (over 58%) and the Royals ranking in the bottom 10 offensively is only going to help him.
Tony Gonsolin
I’m typically a little heavy than the field on Gonsolin and we’ll see if that continues, but he’s hard not to like. We talked about the matchup with Road Rockies yesterday against righties so all of that still stands for Gonsolin as well. Now he has been pitching with a horseshoe in his mitt because the 3.77 xFIP simply doesn’t match the 1.54 ERA but he’s always been a pitcher that looks like he’s lucky. Through his 224 career innings, the xFIP is 4.19 and the ERA is 2.37, and his 8.5% HR/FB ratio is excellent. The season, his K rate is 24.9% and he’s cut his WHIP down to 0.82. It helps when the walk rate goes from 14.2% last year to 7.4% this year, even though his 91.4% strand rate won’t stick around forever. The four-seam for Gonsolin has a .385 wOBA but he only throws it 36.8% of the time and his splitter/slider/curve has a whiff rate of at least 30%. Both sides of the plate are at a .255 wOBA or lower and he doesn’t have any other major splits to worry about.
Aaron Nola
The matchup is not the best on paper for strikeout upside but Nola has been so outstanding this year that he shouldn’t be left out at all. Nola has a 29.1% K rate and a 3.13 ERA to go with his 2.94/2.87 FIP/xFIP combo along with a 44.2% ground ball rate and a 0.92 WHIP. His curveball is driving his strikeouts with 46 and a 39.6% whiff rate while the Nationals are just 14th against it. The status of Juan Soto is up in the air as he hasn’t played in a couple of days so that would certainly help Nola if he continued to miss. Both sides of the plate are under .300 for the wOBA and Nola whiffs the left side a little more often at a 29.3% K rate. He can get through any lineup, even one that is only striking out at 19.9%. You can argue that he may not be the best bet to lead the slate in scoring, which is what you would want at his salary.
Honorable Mention
Max Fried has been excellent but the Cardinals are as well, sitting in the top seven in all of our offensive categories. I think he puts up a strong real-life game with a .292 wOBA and a 22.8% K rate when facing a righty but I like other cheaper options.
Mid-Range
Miles Mikolas
This could end up very badly but the reward is certainly there was well and Mikolas is in the top 10 in innings pitched at 100 even. When we talk about pitchers against the Braves, we want pitchers that handle the right side of the plate and Mikolas does that. He has a .280 wOBA, a 19.1% K rate, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 51.1% ground ball rate. That last part can help neutralize the power-laden Atlanta hitters and he’s only giving up a hard-hit rate of 31.9%. There is really no one pitch that Mikolas leans on more than others but the changeup is the least-used pitch against righties and that’s a positive since it allows a .360 wOBA. Atlanta is fifth n fly-ball rate against righty pitching so there’s no doubt it’s a tough matchup but Mikolas could be well up to the task.
Honorable Mention
Josiah Gray is kind of Hunter Greene-lite in that the K rate of 25.4% is always going to tempt you at a reasonable salary but he can get smacked in any outing. The xFIP is 4.35 but the lineup construction is going to be vital. He’s held the right side to a .275 wOBA and a 26.6% K rate with a manageable 1.28 HR/9. The left side is much tougher for him with a 6.87 FIP, a 2.56 HR/9, and a .387 wOBA. Hello, Kyle Schwarber.
Punt Range
Merrill Kelly
I’m not over the moon for Kelly as he’s a little worse against the left side of the plate but the Giants are slumping offensively. Over the past 30 days against righty pitching, they are 22nd in wRC+, 21st in wOBA, 19th in ISO, 21st in OPS, and that has come with a 24% K rate. Even though lefties are more productive, it’s a .302 wOBA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 3.77 FIP. He also has the hard-hit rate under 22% of the time as well and while Kelly isn’t the most stable source of points, the salary has really dropped. Kelly also generates a 45.6% ground ball rate and a 26.1% CSW so he’s in play for tonight to load up on bats.
Brayan Bello
I’ll admit, I’m much more inclined to take a risk with Bello tonight and pay just $5,000 for the 23-year-old righty who has shredded the minors so far this season. Through 51.1 IP in AAA, he’s sporting a 2.81 ERA, a 2.64 xFIP, and a massive 34.4% K rate which is super exciting but the ground ball rate has been over 62% in both AA and AAA this season. That’s a spectacular combo and the scouting reports have him with a plus fastball and slider with a good changeup. With Tampa striking out over 25% of the time and walking 7.7% of the time, that’s a good mix for Bello as well. Against the left side, the K rate has been 29.8% and the righties have a K rate of over 45%. With the instability baked in, he’s WELL worth the risk at this salary.
Missed The Cut
Luis Severino – This is a very tough spot to predict for Severino. On the one hand, the Buccos strike out at a top-five rate when they face a righty. That sounds great but they’re going to throw out a lot of lefties and that doesn’t jive well for a ceiling for Severino. His K rate s only 20.2% and the FIP is 5.23 and while the Pirates offense isn’t the best, I don’t think Severino has a huge game here.
Alex Cobb – I’ve been Mr. Alex Cobb since he’s been the unluckiest dude we talk about with a 4.79 ERA and a 2.73 xFIP but the pitch count has me worried. I don’t think we get more than 80 as he’s thrown 60, 80, and then went back to 67 (five innings but still) in the last start. It also doesn’t help that lefties have a .364 wOBA and the K rate goes down under 24%. The salary is interesting but it’s still a bit of a tougher sell unless we get some indication he’s full-go.
Spenser Watkins – He’s had two good starts after coming back from the IL but I’m not sure why, and that freaks me out. There hasn’t been a shift in pitch types or anything else and his career numbers through 95.2 IP seem far more relevant with a 5.56 xFIP and 6.59 ERA.
Stacks
Dodgers
Astros
Yankees
Orioles/Rangers Game Stack
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