Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/28
We have the mother-load of games tonight with all 30 teams in action, so it’s obviously a big slate. There are a ton of directions these kinds of slates can go but pitching remains the bedrock of anything. We definitely have some aces up top and some other players along the way in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/28!
Aces
Carlos Rodon
The Tigers have come to life in the last 14 days when facing a lefty pitcher, ranking in the top 12 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ but the K rate is right under 24% and on the season, Detroit is in the bottom 10. Rodon has gotten back on the horse with 30+ DK points in each of the past three starts and he’s racked up 26 strikeouts, one earned run, and 21 IP. Two of those starts have come against the Dodgers and Braves, making them even more impressive. His FIP is 2.34 and the xFIP is 3.10 to go along with a 31.3% K rate and a 14.2% swinging-strike rate. The fastball has a 4.6% whiff rate and 58 strikeouts to go with 39 from the slider while Detroit is bottom-four against both pitch types. Rodon has also held both sides of the plate under a .270 wOBA, a 2.45 FIP, and a K rate over 30%. He makes a ton of sense up top tonight.
Zack Wheeler
The perception is the matchup against the Tigers is going to be easier for Rodon, but Wheeler sets up quite well for this spot against Atlanta. Granted, there is more talent in comparison to Detroit but Wheeler is better when facing a righty even with a .294 wOBA because he has a K rate of 29.8%, he’s allowed no home runs with a 2.49 xFIP and 1.46 FIP combo, and the .389 BABIP is not going to stick around forever. Atlanta is in the top 10 in ISO but they’ve fallen outside of the top 10 in many others and they strike out 25.4% of the time, third-most in baseball when facing a righty pitcher. Wheeler took a minute to get going this year but he’s now got the FIP down to 2.27, a 2.93 xFIP, and a 12.2% swinging-strike rate. That would narrowly edge out 2021 for his best mark and I’m interested to see how the field approaches these two. They may not be as far apart as the perception might be.
Charlie Morton
He has come to life with a vengeance in the past four starts with 40 total strikeouts, four walks, and a total of 10 earned runs across 25 innings and the curveball has been cooking. It’s up to a 39.9% whiff rate and 39 strikeouts to lead the arsenal and it has been in the positives in FanGraphs rating In all four starts. Philly is second against the curve this year but they’re without Bryce Harper after a broken thumb and that’s a big boost for any pitcher facing them. The wOBA in June has dipped down to .271, the K rate is an (unsustainable) 40%, and the xFIP is down to 1.59. Even with Harper this year, Philly is 17th in wRC+, wOBA, 11th in ISO, and 15th in OPS so it’s far from dominant. Morton didn’t suddenly get THIS good but his salary is reasonable and I’m still interested.
Honorable Mention
We saw Zac Gallen go off in the last start against the Padres and it is a reminder of what he can do. His metrics are still kind of average for an ace with a 3.73 xFIP and the K rate is under 25% and he does at least generate a ground ball rate just a hair under 48%. I wouldn’t argue with you at all if you played him, but he wouldn’t be my first choice and in June he still has a 4.35 ERA, a .351 wOBA, and a 1.74 HR/9.
Mid-Range
Frankie Montas
We all know in New York against the Yankees can be a difficult matchup and I would say I’m not putting much weight into the 5.21 road ERA since that sample is only 19 innings and the xFIP is better than at home at 2.92. Montas also has a 30.5% K rate, a 3.4% walk rate, a 2.08 FIP, and a 2.46 xFIP when he’s facing a righty and that’s what I’m after against the Yanks. His splitter gets a lot of attention and it should but the slider is a weapon when facing the right side even with just nine strikeouts. It still has a 41.7% whiff rate which is the best of the arsenal and the splitter is next at 29.7%. Montas has actually thrown the slider and sinker more against righties than the splitter and it has worked all year. We all know the risk but the reward could be well worth it.
Luis Castillo
I can’t say he’s been anything special this season with a 3.46 xFIP, 49.6% ground ball rate, and a 22.9% K rate but those certainly aren’t bad numbers either. The barrel rate for Castillo is still just 5.6% so he’s not being squared up and the biggest change for him has been the swinging-strike rate dropping to 10.5% after never being lower than 12.6% at any point in his career. His sinker and changeup are both down in whiff rate this year and they make up almost 55% of the arsenal, so that tends to explain it. The Cubs are just 21st when they see a changeup so that’s a bump to Castillo and he’s been better against righties. They only have a .242 wOBA, a 2.63 FIP, and a 0.37 HR/9 with a higher K rate of 23.7%. The Cubs could throw out six of them and we’ll see if the weather cooperates, but it’s not a terrible matchup since they whiff 22.8%, 12th most against righty pitching.
Shane Baz
This is another risk/reward spot because Bay isn’t the cleanest when facing lefty hitters. Throughout his career (only 41 hitters), the wOBA is .279 but the BABIP is only .182 and the FIP is 4.84 to go along with the 4.48 xFIP. Since Milwaukee still strikes out the seventh-most against righties at 23.7%, there is plenty of upside at the price. His slider and curve both have whiff rates over 40% this season and he’ll need the slider to be strong since the Brewers are fifth against it. Baz has only made three starts so far this season but the xFIP is 3.78 and the K rate is 28.3%, an excellent number. The 12.4% swinging-strike rate is solid as well and this could be the first game he gets over the 80-pitch threshold. Now that he has dipped under $8,000, he’s very appealing for the ceiling he could bring.
Honorable Mention
I don’t love attacking the Mets but Framber Valdez is well in play with a 3.20 xFIP, 21.1% K rate, and a 67.6% ground ball rate. He has hit at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts but this salary is kind of expensive for a ceiling of likely around 20 DK points. The Mets aren’t the best team ever against lefties but the K rate is under 20.5% as a team.
Johnny Cueto is sort of on the fringe for me since we know the Angels strike out at the highest rate in the league, but I can’t help but think Cueto can’t keep this up. His metrics aren’t bad with a 3.63 FIP and a K rate just under 21% to go along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, but there isn’t anything special here either. I think you probably get a solid 13-17 DK and move on, and a player like Baz can hit over 20 with much more strikeout upside in my eyes.
Punt Range
JP Sears
This was from yesterday, but Sears is actually pitching tonight for the Yanks – Sears is certainly interesting as he grabs the Oakland matchup and went 84 pitches in the last start. They are in the bottom 10 in every offensive category and whiff 23% of the time, while Sears is a lefty with just seven innings in the majors. He does have a 4.72 xFIP with his 0.00 ERA but the salary is certainly cheap enough and the K rate in the minors has been over 31.5% since the start of last year. There’s not much to go on but the salary is great and Oakland is not, so he makes plenty of sense. Just like we thought for Monday, the builds he opens up are worth the risk and I’m always willing to chase a big K rate in the minors at this salary.
Keegan Thompson
This guy has been a bear to figure out, with two starts in the negatives and two over 26 points in the last four. The funny part is one of the good ones came against Atlanta and one of the bad ones came when facing the Orioles, so it’s tough to say he’s matchup dependent. The xFIP is over 4.00 when facing either side of the plate and we’d want more lefties to get the 25.7% K rate in play. The right side is under 20% with a 1.54 HR/9 and a 4.84 FIP, which are a little worrisome. That could be an issue depending on the Reds lineup but the ground ball rate is very nice at 45.5% and the hard-hit rate is under 40%. He checks boxes that could get the job done, but I want to see the lineup and weather before deciding.
Honorable Mention
This goes along the same lines as yesterday, but Dean Kremer could turn interesting. On the whole, across his 21 IP, the 16.3% K rate and 4.75 xFIP aren’t what we’re looking for. However, Seattle had suspensions handed down today so that could have an effect here. They plan to appeal (not sure how Jesse Winker appeals helping start it and flipping the double bird, but I digress) so we need to see the lineup.
Missed The Cut
Clayton Kershaw – He was great in the last start but again, he was only at 80 pitches. The game was out of hand at that juncture but the best case is likely still 90 and that’s a tough sell in Coors for five digits. We have other pitchers with higher ceilings in my view.
Robbie Ray – Of all the pitchers on this list, he almost certainly has the highest upside but across the past 30 days, Baltimore is in the top three in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a K rate under 24%. Ray has given up plenty of runs and does have a 4.18 FIP with a 3.83 xFIP, so the bombs could fly.
Sean Manaea – He gets this Arizona offense for the second straight start and while they haven’t been good against lefties, Manaea is not an ace in my eyes. He’s a good pitcher but he also has a 3.92 xFIP and the K rate is 25.5% with a fly-ball rate over 42%. I think he makes a fine start but not one we need at the salary.
Stacks
Dodgers
Blue Jays
Cardinals
Twins
Rangers
Pirates
Red Sox
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