Dave Gloeckner 
We have finished the AFC Divisions and now jump to the National Football Conference. Today we bring you the NFC West, which is a fascinating division in itself. It is home to the 49ers, who have been to two straight NFC Championships and look to bigger things in 2023. The Rams also reside in the West, and they are only 18 months removed from a Super Bowl LVI win over the Bengals. But last season was disastrous, and they are chomping to show that it was a fluke. We also have the Seahawks coming off a shocking season and looking to build upon that in 2023.
Finally, we have the Cardinals, still healing from the Kingsbury and Keim era, sprinkled with success but littered with failure. And looking at the QB situation, we have more questions than answers which is primarily why this Division will have surprises this year.
While the 49ers are the clear favorites, they still need to name a starting QB. There is value out West, and see future bets that can give us a positive edges on the books.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
ARIZONA CARDINALS +2500 DraftKings
The Cardinals had virtually no chance last season. It all started to fall apart when they publicly released specific terms in QB Kyler Murray’s contract extension. The details clearly stated facts, such as the QB must log hours of studying film. That brought into immediate question his dedication to not only the team but to football. And while that all got worked out, a gray cloud hung over Kyler and this team all season, leading them to a 4-13 record and last-place finish in the West.
So while controversy ailed this team, what were their faults on the field in 2022? It started with an offense that was 22nd in yards, 21st in ppg, and 26th in 3rd down conversion percentage. They threw the 4th most interceptions (17) as an offense and were 27th in TO differential. Defensively, they were average at best in both the run and the pass. But they were 24th in sacks and only created 20 turnovers which were also good for 24th in the league. Overall, Arizona didn’t do anything very well in 2022 and did most things poorly.
Which is why they moved on from Kliff Kingsbury and hired Jonathan Gannon to take over as head coach. Gannon comes over from Philadelphia, who led the league in sacks with an astounding 70. While the talent in Arizona is not what Gannon had in Philly, he will look to install a system that will allow yards but look to make teams beat them underneath. And against the likes of Brock Purdy, Matt Stafford, and Geno Smith, it may work and keep them in games. Joining Gannon, a first-time head coach, are first-time coordinators Drew Petzing (OC) and Nick Rallis (DC). So overall, this is a young staff needing more experience and will have to get up to speed fast in a competitive division.
Now the big question looms: how can the Cardinals improve in 2023? They have the longest odds of any team in the NFL to win their Division at +2500. Their win total is the lowest in the NFL at 4.5. And they are favored, by a country mile, to have the fewest wins in the league. Add to that they have a QB that regressed after receiving a big contract. And they lost key players from last season, such as WR DeAndre Hopkins, DL Zach Allen, and CB Byron Murphy. As for incoming FA’s, their most significant signing was LB Kyzir White, who was PFF’s 96th-ranked free agent. Arizona did well in the draft, but most picks won’t provide immediate impacts in 2023.
The bottom line is the roster is substandard, and it will take years of astute moves, including drafts, to bring it back up to the level of the top teams in the Division. Their star, Kyler Murray, is recovering from ACL surgery and likely won’t be ready until October. They have holes on the O-Line and at critical positions such as WR and Defensive Line. And the coaching staff is brand new, with first-time signal callers on both sides of the ball. They will be battling for the first pick in next year’s draft but not for any division titles in 2023. This one is a no for me.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
LOS ANGELES RAMS +1000 DraftKings
The Rams made the biggest nose dive of any previous Super Bowl Champion in NFL history. The Rams’ 12 losses were the most by any team in a season following a Super Bowl victory. Adding salt to the wounds, the Rams had traded away their first-round pick in the Matthew Stafford deal and were left sitting out another NFL Draft Thursday.
The Rams entered the 2023 offseason with little room to improve their roster because they were only $1.5M under the cap. So they opted for plan B to trade off high-profile players such as Jalen Ramsey and stockpile late-round picks in the draft. And their trades resulted in an NFL-high 14 picks in the 2023 draft. With most (11) of those picks coming in Rounds 5 and later.
But their most significant offseason move was convincing HC Sean McVay to return and sign an extension, as he left some doubt about whether he would be back with the team in 2023. Being they still had stars in Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Stafford, albeit all are a year older and recovering from injury, that was enough to get McVay to sign on the dotted line.
While this team hit a low point in 2022, culminated by bringing in Baker Mayfield to finish the season at QB, 2023 could result in an even lower floor. The Rams are old at crucial positions, and the roster is thin in most other areas. They have experience and proven winners, but this season looks like a transition year. If they start slow, we could easily see them turn their eyes to 2024 and start the hunt for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. But if they can compete early, it would provide some hope that the turnaround will be sooner than most anticipated.
The Rams are the ultimate story of going all-in for a Super Bowl and what can happen afterward. The next chapter will be a story about who the future QB will be and will the coach stick around long enough for the rebuild. If those questions can be answered in the near term, this team can quickly resurge to the top of their Division. To me, that story won’t be in 2023, and they will be a hard fade for me this year.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +190 DraftKings
The Seattle Seahawks surprised most everyone outside the Emerald City last year by finishing with a 9-8 record and securing a Wild Card spot in the NFC playoffs. In what was supposed to be a transition year from Russell Wilson, the Seahawks played better without their franchise’s best QB. And that was because Geno Smith came out of nowhere to have a career season finishing with a league-best 69.8% completion rate and throwing 30 TDs. Those accomplishments earned him the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year, which was well deserved as he hadn’t started a game in 7 years. And to top it all off, he was rewarded with a 3-year contract worth $105 million.
Overall, it was a feel-good story in the Pacific Northwest led by a coach who constantly exudes good vibes in Pete Carroll. The Seahawks had breakout seasons from rookies such as RB Kenneth Walker and CB Tariq Woolen, who led the league in interceptions. They also had solid years from proven veterans, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett finished with over 1000 yards receiving. Their biggest weakness was on defense, as they allowed the 7th most yards per game. With the rushing defense being the biggest issue allowing the 3rd highest rushing yards in the league. Improving those numbers in 2023 will be paramount to the Hawks making the next step in the NFC.
So the Seahawks moved into the offseason with two primary focuses, improve the O-Line and front 7 of the defense. And they did just that in both FA and the draft. They brought back hometown favorite LB Bobby Wagner and added two interior DLs in Jaren Reed and Dre’Mont Jones. These moves alone should help improve the run defense. On offense, they signed C Evan Brown to help improve their run offense, especially in short-yardage situations.
But the draft is where this team won again as they brought in talented WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to pair with an already lethal WR tandem in Metcalf and Lockett. But most importantly, with the pick they received from Denver they drafted the best DB on the board in Devon Witherspoon, to make up one of the best defensive backfields in the league with Woolen, Coby Jones, and Jamal Adams. Just adding further proof of how much they won the Russell Wilson trade with the Broncos.
This leads to the upcoming season, one of the most anticipated in recent Seahawks history. On paper, the Seahawks are arguably a top 5 team in the NFC, battling with Philadelphia, Dallas, San Francisco, and Detroit. Their sudden ascension last season pushed ownership to pay for FAs this year and take advantage of the current window. And with that, this offense looks like they have talent and depth at all skill positions. The defense has vastly improved and has young talent that is still blossoming. The Seahawks are a real challenger in the NFC West as well as the NFC. I’m buying Seattle this year, and the 12th-man advantage will be in full effect as we watch the Seahawks battle the 49ers all year for the West champs.
VERDICT: Bet +195 DK to win NFC West / Bet SEATTLE TO MAKE PLAYOFFS (-120 DK)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -160 DraftKings
The San Francisco 49ers rose from 3rd place to first in the NFC West last season. Once the Rams started faltering and the Cardinals became unwound, it quickly became San Francisco’s Division, and they flexed their dominance. The 49ers were 7-0 against the NFC West last year, including a playoff victory over Seattle.
In those seven games, they outscored the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals by a total of 131 points. No team in the West got closer than 8 points to the 49ers. It was total domination by the team from the Bay. And while the trade for Christian McCaffrey was paramount to reaching the NFC Championship, they were led by their defense. The 49ers D created havoc all season and led the NFL in yards/game (300.6) and points/game (16.3). Spearheaded by Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, Fred Warner, and more, they were able to play a physical style that made teams one-dimensional.
The big news for 2023 will be surrounding the QB situation. Gone is Jimmy Garappolo, as the 49ers traded him to Las Vegas. In comes Sam Darnold to battle with incumbent 3rd year QB in Trey Lance. Their surprise hero from last year, Brock Purdy, is still recovering from elbow surgery and could return by Week 1. On paper, this is a precarious situation. But in reality, they’ll make it work because they have HC Kyle Shanahan, who is a master at creating offenses around their strengths, which for this team is the running game and short passing.
The other big news in the offseason was DC DeMeco Ryans taking the Houston Texans head coach position. But in comes Steve Wilks, who has had success calling plays and should fit right in. And San Francisco helped Wilks by adding DL Javon Hargrave in free agency. Adding to an already stout defensive line.
The 49ers are still stinging from a 31-7 loss in the NFC Championship. But a lot of that game unveiled their actual weaknesses. Remember, the 49ers went 7-0 against their Division but were just 6-4 against the rest of the NFL. They beat up on weak offenses and got away with sub-standard QB play. The pass D was ranked 20th in the league, but they didn’t play enough teams that could expose that. Looking to 2023, the 49ers schedule is weak again, and they will be a force in the NFC. But the lack of a true QB combined with aged stars and injury concerns (McCaffrey) makes me believe they will have some regression in 2023. While they still may win the West, I have too many concerns to bet them at -160.
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