Dave Gloeckner 
We’re rounding into the home stretch with our 2023 NFL Division previews, and today, we bring you the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers owned the Division until last year when Minnesota stepped up and took reigns as NFC North champions. And since then, the big bad wolf in the Division, Mr. Aaron Rodgers himself, took his talents to the Big Apple, leaving the North wide open for all those he previously “owned.”
And while Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota raised a glass to the news of Rodgers trading in his Packers green for a Jets jersey, Green Bay has the talent to still stay atop the Division. Jordan Love looked great in the small amount of action he got last season. As we know, the Packers have been pretty good at drafting and grooming QB’s over the past 30 years.
But the Lions are the paper favorites and are seething at the opportunity to play frontrunner. So much so that HC Dan Campbell looked into the possibility of allowing a lion to roam the sidelines during home games.
The Vikings won the Division last year with some good football but also a lot of luck, as shown by an NFL record 11 wins in one-score games.
They still have the services of reality TV star Kirk Cousins, the most veteran QB in the Division. And he is entirely determined to finally make it deep into the playoffs and shred the label of non-big game QB.
As for the Monsters of the Midway, they saw hope in a 3-14 season as QB Justin Fields flashed athleticism and promise. Now they’ve paired him with a #1 WR in DJ Moore, raising expectations to new heights in Chicago.
The NFC North is an exciting Division with classic rivalries and fascinating storylines. So let’s get right into it and see which team has improved in the offseason and is prepared to hold off the others for an NFC North crown or Cheesehead.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
CHICAGO BEARS +400 DraftKings
The Bears come into 2023 with as high of expectations as they’ve had since the Jim McMahon days. Yes, they’ve had some good years since, including a Super Bowl appearance with Rex Grossman at QB. But for the first time in decades, they genuinely believe they have a franchise signal caller in place with Justin Fields. And with that comes hope, optimism, and the Chicago faithful’s pressure. Because, after all, it’s “Da Bears” they care most about in the Windy City.
But to go forward in 2023, we must look at what ailed this team last year. In 2022, it wasn’t just one area where Chicago struggled. On offense, they had the 4th least yards per game and were dead last, 32nd overall, in passing yards. Defensively the Bears allowed the 4th most yards in the league. Their rush defense was terrible as they allowed 157.3 yards per game which was good for 2nd most in the NFL. Additionally, they let up the most points per game in the league at 27.2.
In short, 2022 ended exactly how the stats showed with the Bears ending with the #1 pick in the draft. So this offseason was important for Chicago as they held assets in the draft and significant cap space. Starting with free agency, the Bears made several splashes when the clock turned go.
They signed two linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, to help bolster their run defense. On offense, they focused on line and spent money on G Nate Davis to help stabilize the front. The curiosity behind this was simply that LB and G are lower-valued positions in the league and being they had the most cap space many thought they would have targeted DL and T positions.
As for the draft, they traded away the first pick to Carolina and received a windfall of picks and a #1 WR in DJ Moore. They then used their draft picks on DL and T positions in Rounds 1 and 2 by selecting Darnell Wright and Gervon Dexter Sr. They also secured a quality RB in Round 4 in Roschon Johnson who could see a significant role this season.
This brings us to this year and the Bears projected outlook. When processing all the information above, the Bears will struggle defensively. They were last in the league in defensive sacks and didn’t do much on the DL to improve that area. Free agents are waiting in the wings (Justin Houston, JPP, and Frank Clark to name a few) which they may consider adding during camp. But overall, this defense is still a work in progress. As for the offense, it will be dynamic, but Fields will need to rely more on his arm this year as teams sold out on the run last year and made things tough on Chicago in tight situations. And I believe he will improve especially with the addition of DJ Moore and the potential breakout of Darnell Mooney.
But the Bears have a long way to go. I don’t see them rising all the way to the top of the Division after a 3-14 season. This year will be about whether Justin Fields can develop into the passer he was in college.
If so, brighter days are ahead on Lake Michigan and the Bears will be contenders in 2024.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
GREEN BAY PACKERS +400 DraftKings
The Packers faded in 2022, which was attributed to tension between their star QB and the front office. It boiled over to the field as the Packers looked disjointed at times leading to losing several games they could have won.
And that gap widened in the offseason, ultimately leading to the departure of long time QB Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. Green Bay turned the page on their disgruntled star and announced they were ready for the Jordan Love era to begin. With that, expectations in the betting market dipped. But inside the walls at Lambeau Field, there is optimism this team can contend as early as this year.
While the tenuous state of the locker room was the biggest reason for disappointment and an 8-9 record in 2022, other holes needed addressing. First is the run defense which allowed 139.5 yards per game which was 6th most in the league. The other is a passing attack which ended up in the middle of the league with just 213.6 yards per game.
The good news on the passing front is that Green Bay may have the answers internally and from the draft. Two WR’s they drafted in 2022 had flashes of greatness. Both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs showed potential as they combined for 83 catches and 1036 yards with 9 receiving TD’s. But they both got off to slow starts as Aaron Rodgers dismissed the idea that working with rookies in training camp would benefit the team. However, the experience they gained last season will help propel them to be a top tandem in the Division in 2023. The Packers also added dynamic pass-catching TE Luke Musgrave in the 2023 NFL Draft. Combined, it’s a young receiving corps but one with talent.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers have the best defense in the Division. And it’s by a wide margin as Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit finished 29th, 31st and 32nd in yards allowed. As is normal in Green Bay, they didn’t do much in free agency. But they did spend a 1st round pick on EDGE rusher Luke Van Ness as they look to improve on a sack rate that was 27th in the NFL last year. However, their run defense still looks to be a weakness. They lost DI Jarran Reed and made no plan to replace him. While the Packers ended up with 13 draft picks they used just 4 on defense. They’ll have to improve this area organically otherwise they may fall into similar issues they had in 2022.
So really what we have here is a team that won 13 games for three straight seasons and had a bump in the road last season. They decided to make a critical move at QB and then give more responsibility to younger players drafted over the past few years. On paper, the Packers are the most balanced team in the Division. And they still have HC Matt LaFleur who was proven he knows how to win games in the NFL. While they are younger, there is a core here that has won games in the past and will be given more responsibility this year.
This team is getting overlooked in a Division that has teams with significant holes. Jordan Love doesn’t have to be Aaron Rodgers as he just needs to play to his strengths. He will be a different and more vocal leader which is what a team of young players needs. My feeling is, this offense can be dynamic as they have a top 10 offensive line, terrific RB’s, and play-making WR’s and TE’s. While it’ll all be on the QB’s shoulders, I think he’s learned enough waiting his turn over the past three years and will be ready to make the most out of this opportunity.
I’m in on Green Bay as the Packers look to rise to the top of the North once again.
VERDICT: BET Win Division +400
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +215 DraftKings
The Minnesota Vikings did a Houdini act in 2022. They won an NFL record 11 games by one score or less. They ended up posting a negative point differential despite going 13-4. Ultimately, that train lost steam as the Giants upset the Vikings in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and sent Kirk Cousins and friends home with another trip short of a Super Bowl. With that, the Vikings have not reached the Super Bowl in 46 years, dating back to before I was born.
The offense carried Minnesota in 2022 because the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. They were ranked 31st in yards per game, 31st in passing yards per game, and 30th in points per game. And they created just 17 sacks (T-26th in NFL) even though teams consistently tried to pass on them. Because of those putrid numbers, the Vikings hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. Flores has had success in the NFL, specifically under Bill Belichick and then as HC in Miami. He’ll need to find his wand and work magic in 2023 to help this team improve on 2022’s performance.
On offense, the Vikings have the best pass catcher in the league in Justin Jefferson. And they used that to their advantage, posting the 6th most passing yards in the league. Their QB, Kirk Cousins, threw for 4,547 yards, the 2nd most in his 11-year career. The mid-season addition of TE TJ Hockenson also helped propel the passing offense as he saw an average of 11 targets a game for the Vikings.
But the bad news is this, luck doesn’t run that good two years in a row. The flaws of this team are still apparent. While they made a splash in free agency to sign CB Byron Murphy, the defensive backfield is still questionable. And the defensive line did not improve, leading to uncertainty in the trenches. The offense lost RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Theilen which looked like big dents. But they did well to replace both with RB Alexander Mattison and rookie WR Jordan Addison. The offense should once again be the strength of this team.
But there are too many holes and too many good bounces that are unlikely to return. It’s also one more year of Kirk Cousins who once again showed he’s good enough to win some games but not good enough to win the big ones. Add to that the Vikings are up against a first-place schedule, and it looks like a U-turn in 2023. Minnesota is in for regression this year and will have a big decision at QB heading into 2024. It’s a pass for me.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
DETROIT LIONS +140 DraftKings
It really is hard to believe that the Detroit Lions are favored to win the NFC North. The last time they even resembled a preseason favorite to win the North were the days of Wayne Fontes, Herman Moore and Barry Sanders. In fact, for you history buffs, the last time they did win the Division was back in 1993 with Rodney Peete under center. But that won’t stop the Detroit hype train from steaming up this preseason. Their inspired play last season as well as a ton of talent has most every pundit predicting big things for the Lions this season.
Let’s start with how we got here. Last season the Lions challenged for a playoff spot after starting the season 1-6. They ended up 8-2 in their last 10 games and barely missed out on a Wild Card spot. In fact, they had a +26 point differential which was good for 9th best in the league. Meaning they played better than their record indicated and deserved a more desirable fate then they had. So the hype is legit and their status as NFC North favorites is justified.
But to make that step, they’ll need to improve significantly on defense. The Lions ranked last in team defense in yards allowed. And they allowed the 5th most points in the league. Their offense won games for them as they scored the 5th most points in the league. Moving forward, Detroit dove in the deep end of the free agent market and made several big splashes. They entirely rebuilt their secondary adding CB Cameron Sutton, CB Emmanuel Mosely, and S CJ Gardner Johnson. In the NFL Draft, they added LB Jack Campbell with one of their 1st round picks and Alabama S Brian Branch. They’ve greatly improved their defensive talent and now they’ll have to work fast to get all the new faces to gel together.
Offensively, the biggest noise they made was trading away RB De’Andre Swift to the Eagles after drafting his replacement Jahmyr Gibbs in the 1st round with pick #12. It was a bold decision but one they felt improved their offense. They also swapped backup RB’s by bringing in David Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams. But the offense will only go as far as Jared Goff can take them. He has the talent and revived his career in Detroit. However, he still lives in the short and mid-range and struggles with deeper throws. The better defenses know this and can make Detroit’s offense one-dimensional. Goff will need to improve that this season for the Lions to make a big step this year.
Overall, I love HC Dan Campbell and the ferocity he brings on the sidelines. But he often makes curious calls and presses the action too much. And Jared Goff still gives me concerns. Remember, the Lions haven’t won this Division in 30 years. While I think the Lions are a real contender in the NFC, I can’t bet them at these odds. Instead, I’ll pay a little more and take action on them to make the playoffs.
VERDICT: DETROIT LIONS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS (-160 DK)
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