Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to the next 2023 NFL Division preview in our series of preseason articles. Today we bring you the AFC West which is home to the Super Bowl Champions, Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, the Chiefs have won the AFC West in 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2023. And looking at the structure of the teams in the Division, it wouldn’t be a surprise to reach 8 straight. It’s Mahomes versus Herbert, Garoppolo, and Russell Wilson. Which seems to be as wide of a gap as we have in any Division.
But that doesn’t mean the other teams won’t try. The Chargers are talented enough but find ways to lose, even when they have 27-point leads. The Broncos hired the best FA head coach available and have pieces in place, but is Russ cooked? As for the Raiders, they have a cool stadium. So, take that for what it’s worth, and let’s dissect this Division to see if there is any value in betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +1200 DraftKings
I was down on the Raiders going into last season primarily because of their massive luck in 2021 and record of 7-1 in one-possession games. But I didn’t see it all unraveling to the point that Derek Carr was ostracized and put out to pasture. Additionally, their three stars, Maxx Crosby, Josh Jacobs, and DeVante Adams, all put up great stats and yet they still tumbled to a 6-11 record. Looking back, the Raiders played in 13 one-score games and went 4-9 in those outings. So it goes to show that winning close games at such a high clip doesn’t translate from year to year. And after the dust was settled, it just looked like another typical maelstrom of a year from HC Josh McDaniels. Controversy finds McDaniels and it doesn’t seem to be by coincidence.
Jumping to 2023, the Raiders decided to move on from Derek Carr. They had their choice of several high-profile QBs to recruit and pick from. Ultimately, they homed in on and traded for ex-49er Jimmy Garoppolo to be the leader of the (near) future. While Jimmy is a winner, he’s also a limited QB that is prone to injuries. Quite frankly, it doesn’t seem like a huge upgrade if any at all, from Derek Carr. It just seemed like Carr and McDaniels were oil and water and never meant to mix. Which means this pairing of QB and HC made sense due to their prior relationship in New England and criticality of this upcoming season.
While I don’t love the Garoppolo move, here’s what I did like about the Raiders offseason. Drafting Edge Rusher Tyree Wilson, who I believe is a strong DROY candidate, and TE Michael Meyer were shrewd moves by a front office that often strayed way off typical draft boards. They also brought in WR Jacobi Meyers to pair with DeVante Adams. Overall, the strengths of this team are their pass catchers and defensive line.
So how can this team improve from its misfortunes in 2023? First, they’ll need to create more turnovers as the Raiders were last in the NFL with just 13. Because of that, they ended up 30th in turnover differential with a -8 number. The defensive backfield still looks to be a weakness but rumors are FA Marcus Peters could be eyeing the Raiders. That would be a huge boost for a team starving for ball hawks. And while I’ve piled on the Garoppolo move, he does bring a winning attitude and culture which could spark something in the locker room. He’ll also be a good mentor for rookie QB Aiden O’Connell.
However, they still have McDaniels and his style has been proven to not work in the NFL. There was a time when I wanted him as the Eagles HC. But I can tell now why that would have never worked here. He doesn’t build cultures and can wear down teams. This is a make-or-break year for McDaniels and he decided his best chance was to phone a friend to help run the offense the way he wants.
The other issue is the Josh Jacobs situation as the Raiders and his team were not able to come up with a long-term deal by last Monday’s 4 pm deadline. He’s now officially tagged, which is a one-year deal worth $10.1 million, and they cannot negotiate a deal until the end of the year. Jacobs led the league in touches last season and did it on a one-year deal. Is he willing to do that again, for a team that didn’t show him proper love? It’s a story that will be hanging over this team all training camp and possibly into the season.
The Raiders will look better in 2023 as they have “their” guy at QB and talented pieces at critical positions. But it won’t be enough to challenge the Chiefs for the Division title. And it might not be enough for McDaniels to keep his job. I feel there is too much drama in Vegas and the overall roster construction will lead them towards a tumultuous season.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
DENVER BRONCOS +550 DraftKings
The Denver Broncos were an organizational failure in 2022. On the field level, the Broncos were the lowest-scoring team in the league last season averaging just 16.8 ppg. Russell Wilson ended up 27th in QBR, ahead of only Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and Baker Mayfield. He was sacked 55 times, most in his career, which helped pilot him to his lowest completion percentage (60.5%). At the front office level, the hiring of HC Nathaniel Hackett ended up being the worst coaching hire of the offseason, and the worst in the franchise’s history. He was fired after Week 15 and became just the 5th first-year head coach of all time to not finish his first season.
But enough with last year as the Broncos’ front office crumbled up that piece of paper and threw it away. They moved swiftly and found their new head coach during the Super Bowl off week. And they got their man in Sean Payton but while doing so also had to pay a steep price as he was under contract with New Orleans until 2024. The Broncos ended up trading away a 2023 1st round pick and a 2024 2nd round pick just to be able to sign Payton to a lucrative 5-year deal. That’s just how desperate they were, and how wounded they felt from the disastrous Hackett era.
The Broncos also made two significant FA acquisitions as they signed OT Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers. These moves were paramount as the Broncos led the league in sacks allowed in 2022 with 63. As for the draft, the Broncos didn’t have a pick until late Round 2 but did add potential starters in WR Marvin Mims, LB Drew Sanders, and CB Riley Moss.
But in the end, this all comes down to whether Payton can get Russell Wilson back to the form he had in Seattle. The Broncos’ defense has talent, especially in the defensive backfield, to stay close in games. They just need an offense to find ways to score, especially in the red zone, to keep up with the firepower of the other teams in their Division. I believe Denver is one of the bounce-back teams of the year because of Payton, Wilson, the receivers, and their defense. And quite honestly, he should be able to out-coach McDaniels and Staley with ease. They won’t win this Division, but they’ll compete enough for me to make a few bets on them.
VERDICT: DENVER OVER 2.5 DIVISION WINS (-170 DK) / DENVER BRONCOS WINNING RECORD YES (-110 DK)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +340 DraftKings
For years, the Chargers found the most torturous ways to lose football games. From missed FGs to last-second fumbles at the goal line, this team did the unthinkable to lose games. And then January 14, 2023, happened where LA botched a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a crushing defeat. They almost outdid the Houston Oilers, and that wasn’t a good thing. Most notably, it was the first time a team had a +5 turnover differential and lost.
A lot of arrows and fingers were pointed at HC Brandon Staley after that game as it was a culmination of the curious moves he made throughout the season. The biggest was playing his starters in a meaningless Week 18 game and seeing WR Mike Williams getting injured. But he kept his job during the offseason and promised things will be different. And like McDaniels in Las Vegas, it may be his last chance to prove those words aren’t hollow.
Outside of all that, the Chargers have a roster equipped to challenge the Chiefs for the Division. In the last 3 seasons, which is when the Herbert era began, the Chargers are 2-4 against the Chiefs with all their losses coming by a total of 15 points. In those 6 games, Los Angeles outscored their rivals by 8 points. So they have been able to swing and take punches from the mighty Chiefs but, like they’re known to do, found ways to lose the close ones (including allowing a Travis Kelce TD with 30 seconds left to lose by 3 points last November).
As constructed they have starts at almost every position. They have a young gun-slinger at QB in Justin Herbert. They have a dynamic RB, one of the tops in the game, in Austin Ekeler. And their receiving corps is arguably a top 5 unit in the NFL with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and newly drafted Quentin Johnston. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have All-Pros in DE Joey Bosa, LB Khalil Mack, and DB Derwin James. And lastly, they finally have a kicker in Cameron Dicker.
So we are all set for another year of high hopes for the Chargers. In comes Kellen Moore as OC to hopefully better balance this offense and make less curious decisions. They didn’t make any big splashes in Free Agency but filled some small holes. But again, this is still a team that has a reputation for “Chargering”. They haven’t won this Division since 2009 and have just 2 playoff wins in the past 15 years.
But the more you keep firing, the better chance you have of hitting the target. And that’s where I am with the Chargers this season. They can compete with the Chiefs and other top teams in the AFC. Outside of their loss to the Chargers and Seahawks, they lost their other 5 games by 7 points or less. In 2022, they had the 8th best offense in yards gained but just the 13th best scoring offense. They struggled in the red zone producing a 55% TD conversion rate which was 18th best in the NFL. And this is where I think the addition of Kellen Moore will work wonders as the Cowboys were #1 in the red zone last season with a 71.4% TD rate.
The defense was solid but they’ll aim to improve their 22.6 ppg which was 22nd last year. Overall, I’m just bullish on a team that has been chipping away but has been their own worst enemy, outside of the bullies in Kansas City. The collapse in the playoffs could be one of the best things that happened to the Chargers as they can continually use that as motivation during this offseason to never let that pain occur again. And taking placing play-calling decisions in the capable hands of Kellen Moore will be one of the best moves this team made in recent years.
At +340, I’m getting a team with 10+ win talent to return 3.5x value. All it takes is one injury in KC to make this even juicier. But I also believe they can compete with the tops in the league and can turn around their misfortunes.
VERDICT: Bet +340 DK / CHIEFS & CHARGERS TOP 2 in Division (+110 DK)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -165 DraftKings
The Kansas City Chiefs are the gold standard in the NFL. They have a historic combination of a Hall of Fame Head Coach, Andy Reid, and a Hall of Fame QB, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have been a force in the AFC ever since Reid arrived and more recently in the 6 years of Mahomes under center. They have been in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, winning 2, placing them in “dynasty” conversation. And now they are on the hunt for their 8th straight AFC West title which would be the 2nd longest in NFL history with New England’s 11 straight AFC East titles being the most.
To stay atop the league, the Chiefs often have significant turnover as winning players demand higher salaries. This year, they lost the likes of WR Ju-Ju Schuster Smith (New England), OT Orlando Brown (Cincinnati), WR Mecole Hardman (NY Jets), and DE Frank Clark (Denver). Those were significant hits for an already top-heavy team. But they filled those holes with rookies in the draft such as EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah and WR Rashee Rice. They also brought in WR Richie James and resigned RB Jerrick McKinnon. So the cupboard is still stocked but I question how much longer an aging TE can be their top receiver. At some point, someone in the WR group has to break out, whether it be Kadarius Toney or last year’s rookie Skyy Moore.
Defensively, they’ll need their young rushers to step up including last year’s 1st round pick George Karlaftis. They will deploy an aggressive blitz-based scheme behind DC Steve Spanola. But it will be more bend but don’t break style that has won them games, including last year’s Super Bowl.
Here’s the deal, the Chiefs are the team to beat in the entire NFL. But I’m not betting them at -165 to win a Division. I’ll take a bet similar to this if it was “wins” based. Just not in this situation even though they are by far the best team in the AFC West. The schedule is tougher, ranked 5th hardest by Sharp Football Analysis and 9th hardest by PFF. Their second half includes the Bills, Eagles, and Bengals as well as road trips to cold-weather cities. Plus, they are the hunted and if it wasn’t for a life-threatening situation in the Bills-Bengals game last year in Week 17, they may have been playing their most important playoff games on the road.
The teams in the AFC are catching up and are hungry. And while the Chiefs still have Magic Mahomes, the gap is smaller, and I see each game they play this year being a dogfight. So, it’s a pass for me at -165 for the Chiefs to win their 8th straight AFC West title. Remind you, that’s something that’s only been once before in NFL history.
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