Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to the next 2023 NFL Division preview in our series of preseason articles. Today we bring you the AFC South which is home to three teams that drafted in the top 11 of the most recent NFL draft. The one team that didn’t own that honor, had the number one pick in both the 2020 and 2021 drafts. The point being, this Division is home to teams that have been bottom-feeders at some point over the past 2 seasons. And with that comes a replenishment of talent and the potential for brighter futures ahead. Which is what we see when looking at the QB’s in the South; Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and CJ Stroud.
And as you can tell from the above, the South will again be one of the worst divisions in football. This division has not had a team reach the Super Bowl since the Colts in 2009, which is the longest streak in football for any division. However, there is optimism as each team has a potential franchise QB in place.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
HOUSTON TEXANS +800 DraftKings
The Houston Texans found a way to win the least meaningful game in franchise history which sent them tumbling to the 2nd pick in the 2023 draft. And with that, they lost out on the opportunity to draft Alabama QB Bryce Young and instead ended up with QB CJ Stroud from Ohio State. And maybe that was their guy all along. But in the upcoming years, we will be comparing Young and Stroud, and remembering that meaningless game to close out the 2022 season.
Anyway, this was always going to be a transition and building year. And by having picks #2 and #3 in the 1st round and a total of 9 picks in the draft, they stockpiled good talent that could even pay dividends this year. I still have some questions about Stroud but can’t argue with the pick. On the other hand, I loved the LB/DE Will Anderson and WR Nathaniel Dell picks. Xavier Hutchinson, a star WR at Iowa State, could also turn into a late-round gem. So overall, this was as good a haul as they could have expected and has built a solid foundation.
Besides the changing of guard at QB and other positions, the Texans also hired a new HC in DeMeco Ryans. The former San Francisco DC comes with high praise and will raise the level of accountability in the building. But he’s also taking over a team that was 7-26-1 in the last two seasons and were outscored by a total of 303 points. This isn’t your typical overnight rebuild and is going to take some significant performances for this team to rise to the level of the other teams in the Division.
But remember this, the Jaguars were last place 2 years straight prior to surprising everyone and winning the AFC South last year. The Colts and the Titans were heavy favorites and while many had the Jags improving on their record, few had them climbing to the top of the Division. With that said, to win a +800 bet it will have to occur at a probability higher than 11%. We have a division with questionable QB’s, two new head coaches, and a history of surprising teams. And the Texans have a new head coach that brings in a fresh scheme and accountability. They’ve also added skill at key positions and should improve dramatically on offense and defense.
Lest not forget, this team wasn’t as bad as its record indicated in 2022. They hung tight against good teams such as the Chiefs, Cowboys and Eagles. They also upset the Titans late in the season to put a foil in their playoff plans. For those reasons, I think this bet is worth sprinkling a few bucks on. This is a play that has value even if the chances of it happening are low. Remember, this isn’t predicting they’ll win but saying there is a better probability than the odds are giving.
VERDICT: BET +800
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +550 DraftKings
The Indianapolis Colts went from a team that was a QB away from being contenders to one of the laughingstocks in the league in 2022. From rolling out a dinosaur in Matt Ryan to be the QB solution, to then hiring Jeff Saturday from ESPN to coach the team, owner Jim Irsay made some precarious decisions last season. So what tells us his new decisions will work? In comes Shane Steichen, formerly Eagles OC, to coach the team. In comes Anthony Richardson as the 4th pick in the draft to take over the signal-calling job. And if he is not ready right away, it’s Minshew time which always provides excitement.
The Colts also added several free agents including a head scratcher. Based on last seasons struggles they gave kicker Matt Gay the biggest FA deal at that position. In the trade market, DB Stephon Gilmore had a great year but requested a trade and he’s now a Cowboy. There is just so much turnover here and what we’re left with is a good defensive line, a star running back, and question marks in most other places. Time will tell if the moves have now brought the Colts back to relevancy. But my intuition says that with a new coach and completely new quarterbacking, this will be a transition year for Indy. It’s different from Houston solely because of Stroud’s experience compared to Richardson’s.
I do like the risk they took with Anthony Richardson as it’s all about reward. We’ve seen similar skilled QB’s rise in recent years (Hurts, Fields, etc,) and he has a coach that knows how to use that talent. However, we all heard that Richardson is a project and will take time so I’m buying into Minshew starting the year and Richardson coming in relief mid-year. One other player I believe in is Jonathan Taylor as he will have a huge bounce-back season. But in the end, there is too much scar tissue here for them to return to the top of South this year. It will take time to get the system right and the players in positions to achieve success in 2023. However, watch out for the Colts in 2024.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
TENNESSEE TITANS +425 DraftKings
The fall of the Colts was matched closely by the Titans in 2022. From the #1 seed in the AFC and a 12-5 record to 7-10 and a top 11 pick. Mike Vrabel’s team showed how much they relied on Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown, with the latter traded away to greener pastures. The Titans went all-in on thinking Treylon Burkes could come in as a rookie and put up numbers similar to Brown at 1/10 the price. But it just didn’t work. And speaking of not working, the Malik Willis project at QB came with a failing grade. It was so bad that they used players from other team’s practice squads to start at QB over Willis. And to top it all off, the Titans lost 7 straight games to end the season.
So chalk it up to an organizational failure as they hit the reset button and move into 2023 with optimism. And that’s because they still have the winningest coach in the Division in Vrabel. They also have a healthy Ryan Tannehill who was 6-6 in games he started in 2022. The Titans decided to be the team to stop the Will Levis wait party and drafted the heavy-armed QB in Round 2 as insurance for Tannehill. They strengthened their O-Line by bringing in veterans Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill while drafting RT Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern. But the receiving corps is still light with only Burkes and Westbrook-Ikhine as WR’s with proven NFL experience. However, they do have a talented TE in Chime Okonkwo as a pass catcher. Additionally, we know the RB’s are solid, namely Derrick Henry, and will have to do the heavy lifting in this offense.
As for the defense, the Titans were #1 against the rush and allowed just 76.9 yards per game. And they added key pieces such as LB Azeez Al-Shaair, edge Arden Key, and DB Sean Murphy-Bunting. If they can pressure the QB and improve the pass defense, they will have the top D in the Division.
Which means that I’m in. I am not as high as everyone else on the Jaguars. They came from 3-14 in 2021 to win the Division. Things fell right for the Jags as the Colts imploded and the Titans got bit by the injury bug. The AFC South is up for grabs, and I believe you have to take a chance in this Division. My chance will be with the best coach, best RB, and most cohesive defensive unit. If it’s not the Titans, I will also have the Texans in play at +800. So let’s Titan Up and put some plus money in our pockets with two enticing future bets listed below.
VERDICT: Bet +425 / Side Bet Tennessee winning record +200 (Draftkings)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -160 DraftKings
The Jacksonville Jaguars roared last season and were one of the most surprising stories in the NFL. From being the worst team in football for two consecutive years to winning the AFC South was surely a giant leap that even the biggest DUVAL fan couldn’t have predicted. First-year head coach Doug Pederson got more out of his team, including star QB Trevor Lawrence than the “so-called” genius Urban Meyer. It also helped to bring in WR Chris Kirk and have the full-time services of RB Travis Etienne as the Jags offense was 9th in total yards and 10th in points per game.
And to top all that off, the Jaguars won a playoff game that their QB tried to throw away early as he had 4 INT’s in the first 1.5 quarters. They rallied from a 27-0 hole to win 31-30 bringing elation to the north Florida city. Which is why everyone feels so good about the Jags coming into 2023. The coach is in place, the QB has arrived, and they have the talent to take the next step.
All that is well and good but I’m here to tell you that I didn’t buy it all. First, the 6-win turnaround came with some fortunes. The Colts imploded and the Titans fell apart at the seams due to a lack of depth in key positions. It took a late 4th quarter fumble recovery for a touchdown to clinch the division in Week 18. And that was against a Titans team with a practice squad player at QB, Joshua Dobbs. They lost to teams such as the Broncos, Colts, Texans, and Commanders. And they needed 5 straight wins at the end of the season, including a miracle against Dallas, to end with a 9-8 record (4-8 before win streak). The Jacksonville Jaguars were a great story in 2022, but it took a lot of help to get there.
The Jags didn’t make a lot of moves in FA but they had 13 draft picks so that’s where they looked to improve certain aspects of their team such as short yardage running by drafting Tank Bigsby out of Auburn. But the biggest splash was a trade they made to bring in Calvin Ridley who is a game-breaker at WR. However, they now have to move up in class and get the three Division winners in the AFC on their schedule in Kansas City and Buffalo (Cincinnati was on schedule as AFC South plays AFC North). And their bonus game is against the San Francisco 49ers. On the other hand, a team like the Texans play the Broncos, Jets, and Cardinals since they were 3rd place last season. That’s a huge difference.
The schedule just looks too daunting for a team that isn’t at the level of the elites in the AFC. I can’t bet these odds at -160, which equates to a better than 62% chance of the outcome occurring. Call me pessimistic but I’d bet on the 3 other teams before putting money on the Jags at these odds. I love Doug Pederson and believe in Trevor Lawrence. Just not at this price.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
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