Dave Gloeckner 
We started our 2023 NFL Division previews last week by looking at the betting values in the AFC East. Today we turn the page to the AFC North which is similarly home to several teams with high expectations. There is one perennial favorite who is the 2-time defending champ (Bengals), one team with all expectations hinged on an oft-injured QB (Ravens), a team with a highly paid QB that is looking for a rebound (Watson), and a team with a young QB that still needs to prove he’s the franchise player (Steelers). If that sounds familiar to the AFC East then you’re right. These are the two divisions that will likely produce the most Wild Card teams in the AFC.
One thing for sure about the North, these teams don’t like each other. And when they all have competitive teams such as in 2023, it’s going to make for some can’t miss football. So let’s dive right in and give you insight into where we see value in the AFC North.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +450 DraftKings
I see a lot of optimism for the Pittsburgh Steelers in several preseason predictions. The market and internet seem to be bullish on a team that finished 2022 strong to avoid Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. The hope is that 2nd-year QB Kenny Pickett will only get better especially, knowing the starting role is his. And they added several offensive linemen, through the draft (Broderick Jones) and free agency (Isaac Seumalo & Nate Herbig), to hopefully improve a rushing offense that was 16th in yards but 25th in yards per carry.
But my concern is in the passing game as they had the least TD’s thrown (12) and the 5th lowest yard per attempt (6.4) in the league. Some of that can be contributed to a rookie QB but it is also due to a lack of game-breakers.
Najee Harris is a hard-nosed running back but doesn’t have breakaway speed. The one WR added in free agency is Allen Robinson. Who at 29 years old is coming off a terrible season with the Rams (and is a possession WR). Yes, they still have Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. But those two receivers they ended up 29th and 38th respectively in receiving yards in 2022. More importantly, the pair was 143rd and 163rd in catch percentage, with both having values below 62%. Those are major issues and the offense will need to start taking deeper shots to compete with potent offenses.
On defense, the linebacking corps didn’t improve in the offseason and is still susceptible to the run. The secondary looks solid, especially with the addition of 1st round pick Joey Porter Jr. And the defensive ends are strong as they still have TJ Watt wreaking havoc and added Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton in the draft. But in the end, I have doubts about Pickett and think there are too many holes on this roster. Pickett competes but he was ranked 33rd in yards per attempt in 2022 and routinely left the pocket too early. The offense has playmakers but lacks some of the game-breaking ability the other teams have in the division.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
CLEVELAND BROWNS +425 DraftKings
The Cleveland Browns once again finished last in the AFC North in 2022. That marked the 14th time in 20 seasons that the Clevelanders suffered a 4th-place finish in the AFC North. And it just felt so Cleveland again as they lost 6 games by one score or less. Even more maddening for Browns fans was the team’s lack of offensive pop especially after Watson took over. The Browns went 3-3 with Watson and managed just 16 points per game. Their only wins were against Houston, Washington, and a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team.
But now they’ve had a full offseason to allow Deshaun Watson to work with the team and get acclimated. So there is optimism around Lake Eerie that this year will be different, and the Browns will see the QB they paid a steep price for. Adding Elijah Moore at WR and drafting Spencer Tillman out of Tennessee will improve the WR corps. The run game should also be solid coming off a season where they had the 6th most yards (2490).
Complimenting an offense that was just 17th in scoring was a defense that was terrible against the run. The Browns allowed 4.7 yards/carry and 135 yards/game rushing which were both good for 25th in the league. They also struggled to pressure the QB as they racked up just 34 sacks. Myles Garrett accounted for 16 of those with no other Browns defender recording more than 3. They did spend money to sure up the line, adding Zadarius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson, but they’ll still need to find ways to create QB pressure.
Look, the Browns haven’t won the AFC North since 1989. And even with a full year of Deshaun Watson and overall improvements on offense, one could argue they will be closer to last than first once again this year. However, I do believe the Browns will be in line for improvement, but it just won’t be enough to get to the top of this Division. They’ll battle for a Wildcard as their schedule strength ranks 26th in football and they’ll give their fans some glimpses of hope towards the future.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
BALTIMORE RAVENS +220 DraftKings
The Ravens, much like the Dolphins in the AFC East, boast a strong roster filled with talent. But will only go as far as their QB’s health goes. One of the most comical stories of the 2022 season was to see QB Tyler Huntley in the Pro Bowl (2 TD’s and 3 INT’s for the season). And while he did hold his own, his play just showed the significant gap between Jackson and a backup QB. It was both injuries and contract squabbles that hindered the former MVP winner in 2022.
And by all accounts, both those issues have been resolved and the Ravens doubled down by stacking together the best set of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had. So, it’s now shut up and put up for both the QB and the Ravens. Can they meet the standards they’ve set for themselves and challenge the Bengals for the AFC North Title?
Adding Odell Beckham Jr and Zay Flowers to Jackson’s offense will give him greater firepower. A year plus removed from major knee injuries, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards should both be fully healthy this year which adds to the running game. And the most notable offensive move of all is the changing of offensive coordinators by replacing Greg Roman with Georgia OC Todd Monken. In all, the offense looks the part and is capable enough to play with pace and score with anyone.
There is a lot to like in Baltimore and I believe they will be serious contenders in the AFC. But it also may take time for them to get all the new pieces, including change in offensive schemes, gelling together. Plus, they have a tough opening stretch and play their first 3 division games on the road. I think Baltimore makes the playoffs again and will be playing their best football by the season’s end. I won’t take the +220 here (to win Division) because of a possible slow start but instead, consider them for AFC champions at +1100.
VERDICT: RAVENS +1100 to WIN AFC / SIDE BET RAVENS TO WIN MORE THAN 3.5 IN A ROW (-140)
CINCINNATI BENGALS +150 DraftKings
The Bengals have won the AFC North in two straight seasons and they are fully equipped once again to be the lead dogs, or cats, in the Division again in 2023. In 2022, Cincinnati improved their defense and offense leading to a higher point differential and 2 more wins than the Super Bowl team from 2021. And to be honest, a couple of zebras and an egregious late hit are some of the biggest reasons they didn’t make it back to the big game. But that pain yields motivation which will help fuel this team to be tops in the AFC North again.
The Bengals biggest challenger is the Baltimore Ravens. Since the start of 2021, Cincy is 4-1 against the rivals from Maryland. And in the offseason, they added key pieces such as stud offensive lineman Orlando Brown who will add protection to their star QB, Joe Burrow.
And those last two words are the key to why I’m backing the Bengals even at the shortest odds of the group. Joe Burrow has improved every year and is the coolest of customers in the most daunting situations. He’s won in Kansas City and Buffalo during the playoffs. Mr. Cool has beaten the #1 seed on the road. Last we forget, Burrow won a National Championship under the brightest of lights. Nothing gets to Joe and as long as he stays upright, the Bengals will be annual contenders in the AFC. He looks as close to Tom Brady as anyone I’ve seen.
To win a bet at +150, we need to have better than a 40% chance of an outcome occurring. If we just simply eliminate the Steelers and Browns from winning the Division, the easy math is the Bengals have a 50% chance to be better than the Ravens. Diving deeper we see a team that has won the Division two times in a row and has been eliminated in those seasons by the eventual Super Bowl Champion. And looking at last season, 4 of their 5 losses were by 3 points or less. As a team, they are tough to beat, and they have become better each year. For all those reasons, these odds are worth betting as there is a better than 40% chance the Bengals will reign supreme in the AFC North once again. And who doesn’t love backing Joe Cool?
VERDICT: BET +150
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