DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.
I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.
The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.
https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20
Narashino Country Club Course Analysis
Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.
The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.
Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.
Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.
Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.
Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks
Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.
Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.
I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.
Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.
Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.
Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks
Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.
Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.
Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.
ZOZO Championship Picks
Suggested Staking
Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)
Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)
Summary
Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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