adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
The NFL season may be over, but that does not mean that it is the end of football DFS! XFL DFS is upon us this weekend and we have a four-game slate to breakdown on DraftKings. Nobody knows how this league will play out, but the more information you have the better that you should do. These leagues were made for offenses to flourish so this should be a fun Saturday! Let’s dive in because we have four games to breakdown.
Seattle Dragons @ D.C. Defenders (-8) – XFL DFS
A few things to notes about the Dragons is they have two ex-NFL receivers on the roster: Kasen Williams ($7,700) and Keenan Reynolds ($8,100). Williams had a big preseason with Seattle in 2017. Reynolds is dynamic with the ball in his hands; he scored an NCCA-record 88 touchdowns at quarterback for Navy. Williams is a name to keep an eye on, but not for Week 1. The XFL injury report has him listed as out.
The tight end of notice here is Conor Hamlett who played his college ball at Oregon State and was on the John Mackey watchlist which goes to the best tight end in the country. Hamlett is joined by OC Mike Riley with the Dragons who also was the head coach at Oregon State.
Running Backs
Kenneth Farrow ($7,200) is the running back to target for the Dragons in GPPs. He was drafted by the team, has NFL/AAF experience, and was named the offensive captain for the team. Via PlayerProfiler.com Farrow also brings a solid burst/agility score, which can translate to more explosive plays. Under offensive coordinator Mike Riley, expect that the Dragons will be a run-first team as they were when Riley coached in the AAF. His old team had the second-fewest passing attempts.
Playing Farrow over somebody like Ja’Quan Garnder ($3,600) despite him being listed the starter could provide a significant edge in XFL DFS. Garnder I would rather play in cash formats. Seattle is going to have strong run game so I think both will see a solid amount of touches. If anything this could mean Farrow is used more in the passing game which on DraftKings is a plus. This team has five tight ends so they are going to run the football!
A wildcard player for the Dragons is John Santiago ($3,000). He is listed as a wide receiver but played running back at the University of North Dakota, where he was a three-time All-American.
Quarterbacks
Brandon Silvers ($8,000) is the starting quarterback for Week 1 for the Dragons and you should not ply him. Starting for the D.C. Defenders will be former Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones ($10,200). Jones brings NFL backup experience and is arguably a potential MVP candidate for the XFL in its inaugural season. He definitely has something to prove and is my top high-priced quarterback on the slate.
Rashad Ross ($10,400) is the most expensive wide receiver on the slate and this comes after he was traded to LA. At this point, we do not necessarily know how caught up to speed he is with the playbook. With his price and status on the depth chart, he is a big fade for me outside a GPP play. I’d much prefer especially in a cash setting to play Eli Rogers ($9,100) who figures to be running the majority of his routes out of the slot especially with DeAndre Thompkins ($4,600) already ruled out. Rogers is not listed as a starter on the team’s depth chart, but they only listed 10 players. Rogers would figure to slide into that spot. If you really want to pay down go for Simmie Cobbs ($3,800).
As a sleeper wide receiver look no further than Malachi Dupree ($3,000) who is listed as a starter on the Defenders’ depth chart for Week 1. D.C. also brings forward some solid running backs starting with Jhruell Pressley ($7,900) who led the AAF in rushing yards last season. He will be one of my most owned backs for Week 1. Donnel Pumphrey ($5,100) is the change of pace back. The D.C. run game should be strong Week 1.
Los Angeles Wildcats @ Houston Roughnecks (-6) – XFL DFS
Head coach June Jones brings his run-and-shoot offense to Houston with quarterback P.J. Walker ($7,800) his starter after he beat out Connor Cook ($9,400). Now, this is interesting because DraftKings had priced Cook as the starter, but that is no longer the case. That makes Walker in this offense the best value at quarterback on the slate by far. Also worth noting that Houston has made the least personnel moves so Jones apparently like what he has in the guys that he already has with the team.
It’s worth noting as well that this offense features zero tight ends – it is all about the wide receiver position starting with Sammie Coates ($9,300). You will surely want to target receivers in this offense all season long. Next would be Kahlil Lewis ($4,100), Cam Phillips ($5,100), and Nick Holley ($5,800) who is actually listed as a running back on DraftKings XFL DFS. Lewis has gotten solid hype leading up to Week 1 and was selected in the second round of the XFL Draft. Coates was selected after him in the third round.
Regarding the run-and-shoot offense, here are a few major takeaways you should be aware of with this offense. The offense features four receivers who adjust their routes based on the defenders. This is interesting because we do not know how any of these XFL defenses will lineup with no tape on any of them. The whole deal in the run-and-shoot is to get the pass off fast. For this reason and draft capital, you should favor Lewis over Coates.
Don’t play actual running backs in this offense like Andre Williams ($3,800). A sleeper receiver is Blake Jackson ($3,000) who played quarterback in college and runs a 4.44 40-yard dash.
Quarterbacks
Josh Johnson is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and brings the most name recognition of any of the signal-callers. However, he is dealing with a thigh injury that makes him a game-time decision for Week 1. Things as of 2/7/20 look like he is trending out. Because of the injury and the fact that Johnson is an established veteran quarterback it would not surprise me to see him sit. At his price, he is more of a fade or just a play in GPPs. Just be prepared to pivot off him either to his backup or another QB. His backup is Jalan McClendon ($6,300). McClendon has very little experience and is surely a clear step down from Johnson. He never even started at the collegiate level. The Houston Roughnecks DST ($3,200) are in a great spot.
He would be a reason to fade LA pass-catchers. He is however mobile so perhaps the Wildcats lean more on the ground with Elijah Hood ($7,500). Hood has been the starter since training camp and that will continue Week 1. He does have some pass-catching chops. He comes with XFL draft capital as well as the Wildcats first skill player chosen. Larry Rose ($3,500) is more of the pass-catching back. The Wildcats have a huge offensive line that could overpower Houston.
Defense Special Teams
Usually, I will just pick a defense that is cheapest to fit in other studs, but in the XFL Week 1, there is a case that the LA Wildcats DST ($3,500) is the strong play. They are a fierce group of players with a strong defensive line. The defense led by Pepper Johnson who worked under Bill Belichick in New England. They have a top LB core led by former Baylor star Shawn Oakman.
The number one receiver on the Wildcats is Nelson Spruce ($8,500), with Tre McBride ($5,500) coming in after. McBride is dealing with his own injury so again, it is best to not be overweight on this LA Wildcats passing offense led by McClendon. Saeed Blacknall ($5,900) would seem to benefit the most by McBride’s absence. Like everybody that comes out of Penn State, Blacknall is a 95 percentile SPARQ-x athlete. Apparently, his nickname in college was Megatron Jr. The pay-down receiver option is Adonis Jennings ($3,300).
Sunday XFL DFS Games
Tampa Bay Vipers @ New York Guardians (+3) – XFL DFS
The New York Guardians are the only home team that is not favored to win on the XFL’s opening slate of games. Aaron Murray ($9,000) is the starting quarterback for the Vipers and he has the benefit of throwing behind a solid offensive line. Matt McGloin ($9,700) gets the nod for the Guardians and I am not that excited about it. McGloin is one of the few quarterbacks that has virtually no rushing upside and for that reason, he is a zero-play for me. The Vipers also have a lot of chemistry in their defense. Their backup Marcus Williams ($6,500) has a lot of rushing chops, so he could play an integral role in the double forward pass. For me being lower than consensus on McGloin the same goes for his number one passing target Mekale Mckay ($9,900). Mckay was the Guardians second-round pick in the XFL Draft.
The New York Guardians DST ($3,900) is another DST that on paper looks pretty good, and I think are being undervalued at home. There’s a chance of rain/snow in New York during this time, so the weather alone could impact the Vipers offense. Something to monitor heading into Sunday. This defense features one of the best and fastest secondaries in the XFL. They may try to play ball control with their bruising running back.
Running Backs
At running back everything points to Tim Cook ($6,100) being the main guy to lead the Guardians. Cook is interesting because of this size he could be a monster to be a TD vulture and get a ton of two-point attempts. He is not much of a pass-catcher. Darius Victor ($3,700) figures to also be involved. He and Cook split reps during the week.
One of the few tight ends that may end up being featured is Nick Truesdell ($6,900). He was the Vipers’ first pick in the XFL Draft. The guys is 6’7” so he will most likely see a large role in some of this point-after tries. Other skill players for the Vipers you should target include Reese Horn ($3,400). He is a big-bodied wide receiver but is not a speedy guy (4.72 40-yard dash). The speedy receiver to target is Seantavius Jones ($7,400). He was the Vipers second-round draft pick after they took Truesdall.
Running Backs
At running back for the Vipers look no further than De’Veon Smith ($6,300). Smith was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2020 XFL Draft by the Tampa Bay Vipers and brings a dual-threat skillset in the receiving and passing game. Head coach Marc Trestman heavily targets his running backs in the passing game. Jacques Patrick ($4,300) is more of the straight pass-catcher and Quinton Flowers ($3,900) according to Trestman will be used in a variety of ways as a wildcard for XFL DFS.
St. Louis BattleHawks @ Dallas Renegades (-9.5) – XFL DFS
The Battlehawks team has one of the fastest defenses on paper. Under Bob Stoops and offensive coordinator Hak Mumme they will need to be fast to stop the explosive air raid offense. The major note here is that quarterback Landry Jones ($9,200) is dealing with an injury and could potentially miss Week 1. That would thrust Philip Nelson ($8,300) into the starting role. He last played in the AAF under Mike Martz.
Running Backs
The main running back to target here is Cameron Artis-Payne ($6,800). He owns the top stop on the depth chart, and that matches the buzz surrounding is role entering the season. Lance Dunbar ($4,400) had been dealing with an injury and is not listed on the depth chart at all…which does not bode well for his usage in Week 1. A sneaky running back play here to make the most of DraftKings XFL DFS’ PPR format is Austin Walter ($3,000). This offense is going to use the running backs in the passing game and Walter profiles as a pass-catching back. At Rice, he caught 79 balls for 803 yards and was also used as a punt and kick returner. 97th percentile college target share! Even though the offense is called the air-raid, they still do a lot of running of the football, unlike the run-and-shoot that Houston runs.
Wide Receivers
Wide receiver Jeff Badet ($8,800) is the fifth-highest receiver on the slate, but I think he is worth the price tag. Runs a sub 4.4, and possesses a 93rd percentile burst score. His college yards per reception was 18.5 in the SEC and he was the Renegades’ first pick in the XFL Draft. Jazz Ferguson ($4,200) was someone I was also excited about but he is dealing with a thigh injury. If he plays I like him as well despite him being listed as a number two receiver on the depth chart. This offense will throw plenty for him to see targets.
If Ferguson misses that makes me like Flynn Nagel ($3,900) and Freddie Martino ($3,000) as even cheaper options. Martino is listed as a starter, has strong NFL ties and some serious track speed. Nagel should dominate in the slot which in the air raid can get a lot of targets. He was compared to Wes Welker by some that were present at training camp. Also, watch out for Jerrod Heard ($3,000) when it comes to double passes. He is a former college quarterback.
Tight End
At tight end, again this is not a position to prioritize. However one of the cheapest players on the slate is tight end Donald Parham ($2,600). Parham played college football at Stetson, where during his senior season he had 85 receptions for 1,319 yards and 13 touchdowns. XFL DFS sleeper!
For the BattleHawks, Jordan Ta’amu ($8,700) draws the start at quarterback. He does not have a lot of experience and is known mostly for failing to reach the potential of the Mississippi offense last year despite having NFL players like A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Dawson Knox at his disposal. However, because there is little known about what he can do he does have an interesting ceiling; he rushed ten times per game on average in college. His mobility would help running back Christine Michael ($8,400). I am concerned about this offense as a whole and Vegas agrees as they are the biggest underdogs (9.5) this weekend against Dallas.
Wide Receivers
The only receiver I am looking for St.Louis is L’Damian Washington ($3,700). He is a fast big outside wide receiver. His quarterback made a ton of passes downfield in his college days so that is where Washington could thrive. He did have a home in the now-defunct AAF, hauling in 15 passes on 33 targets for 250 yards (16.7 yards per reception) and two touchdowns over eight games. Ta’amu finished his senior season at Ole Miss in 2018 with a whopping 42 passes that went for 25 yards or more and 87 that went for 15 or more. I would also mention Carlton Agudosi ($3,000) who is massive. 6’5” with arm length at 35 1/2 (100th percentile). Cole Hunt ($4,900) is the starting tight end.
They have the second-cheapest defense on the slate ($3,100), but they are still playing a backup quarterback assuming Landry Jones misses. Their defense also features Kenny Robinson at safety who would probably be getting ready for the NFL Draft is he was not dismissed from West Virginia in the summer of 2019.
