DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Another week and it was a consecutive runner-up finish for our picks! That keeps our run of selecting a golfer in the Top 5 or better at every PGA Tour event in 2023. It truly has been a great start to the year. In this instance, it was Brendon Todd who secured 2nd behind Justin Rose in a heavily wind delayed Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Another runner-up, this time at 70/1, and we are well in profit for the year. The hot streak shows no signs of stopping any time soon with our WM Phoenix Open Picks!
The WM Phoenix Open represents the first full field of the designated events since the PGA Tour meetings in 2022. Chiefly, this was a direct attempt to negate the effect of LIV Golf on the tour. This sees a field of Major championship calibre competing for a generous $20m purse. Let’s get into it!
Course Analysis
TPC Scottsdale plays host to this event as it has done since 1987. Do note some substantial redesign work was completed in 2014. The course now provides a sterner test which has become renowned as an all around test of a golfer’s game. As such, the cream often rises to the top here. The winner has been priced at 50/1 or less at every tournament since those renovations. 5 out of 8 of those winners have been at 30/1 or shorter.
Trends are nice, but not always informative. Therefore, this should not be the sole influence to your WM Phoenix Open Picks. Remember, we are looking for value not necessarily winners. For an article with insights on what this means and my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/
Ball-striking is well-linked to success here. Somewhat overlooked by others in the industry this week is that this course is also a major factor. Solely looking at SG: T2G would exclude one of the key indicators for potential success. The greens here are very large at over 7,000 sq feet on average. Ideally, we want elite ball strikers who can then give us a chance of making putts. Especially, the putting statistics might come into play with some long putts required. The greens are playing ultra fast and firm, as are the fairways. Rough is not overly penal at just 2 inches ryegrass.
Comp Courses for our WM Phoenix Open Picks
This course is one of the highest correlations between prior course form and future success. In fact, the only courses with greater correlation are Augusta National, Waialae, and Bay Hill. As a matter of fact, Bay Hill is a decent course comp for this track, as is the 2022 PGA Championship host Southern Hills and Houston Open host Memorial Park. Those three said courses have played a key role in determining our WM Phoenix Open Picks.
Weather
Alongside a dry course with no rain in the forecast, there is wind to contend with here. Consequently, this should add to those aforementioned firm and fast conditions. Expect higher missed fairways per usual, as holding the short grass becomes more difficult. It is also forecast to be cold all week, particularly in the mornings.
The winds at this stage have not resulted in any discernible edge for a weather draw. Generally, increased winds are expected both on the afternoon of the Thursday and Friday. Overall, gusts look to be at a similar strength across both days. However, Friday AM may end up windier than Thursday AM. Accordingly, it may be worthy building some lines with exclusively Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times to cover an eventuality where Friday AM ends up particularly tumultuous.
https://www.windy.com/33.640/-111.915?icon,33.117,-111.915,8,m:eBfac2D
2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks
Suggested Staking
Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Alex Noren
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Shane Lowry
2pts E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.60
Lucas Herbert
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50
Chris Kirk
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50
Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pt E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.50
2pts Top 40 $2.70
Golfer Profiles
Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play
Firstly, Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks. Xander emphatically shook off his (somewhat undeserved) reputation for having difficulty crossing the winners line. Wins at the Zurich Classic, Travelers Championship, and Genesis Scottish Open all contributed to a stellar year in 2022.
At 17/1, there is real value in the number on offer where fair odds would place him more in the space of a 14/1 chance. Correlated form bounds off the page for Xander. Across his obvious course form here, at Bay Hill, and at Southern Hills, he has never finished worse than 24th in those 7 starts.
In fact, he ranks 2nd in true SG at this course for any golfer with more than 4 rounds played. Leading that is Matsuyama, who I can easily fade this week given his indifferent form and possible long-term lingering injury concerns. Scheffler and Rahm follow closely
Notably, this form includes a 3rd and 2nd here in his last two appearances. Previous fears of a neck injury for Xander at the Sentry Tournament of Champions look to now be gone. He returned just two weeks later to finish 3rd at The American Express and followed that with a 13th around the tougher Torrey Pines course at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is fit, in great form, and arrives at a course which is one of his favourites on the PGA Tour.
Alex Noren
Alex Noren looks to be back at his best having finished in the Top 5 in his last three starts. In November, Noren finished 4th at the Houston Open where Memorial Park presents strong links to TPC Scottsdale. That result came from nowhere after a very indifferent 42nd in a weak field at Mayakoba, suggesting the type of track that suits his eye.
He has kept that recent form at other desert courses in the Middle East. A 2nd at the DP World Tour Championship behind one Jon Rahm, when we had Noren in our tips at long odds, and a 5th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship both present elite form in two Rolex Series events.
Alex Noren ranks 1st in this field for SG: PUTT and 26th for SG: APP over the last 3 months. Those two metrics together provide a nice recipe for success on this track of pin seekers who can then make putts when needed.
The course history and comp course performances are stout. A 6th here last year alongside a 44th and 21st when in worse form in 2018/19 both joining the 4th place at the Houston Open. He was an obvious must include for our WM Phoenix Open Picks.
Shane Lowry
Shane Lowry had statistically the best year of his career in 2022, surpassing even his 2019 season when he won The Open Championship and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Lowry was perhaps unlucky to secure just the one win, although it was a big one in the BMW PGA Championship when he backed him for the win as he secured the flagship event on the DP World Tour. We also had him as our favourite play when he finished 3rd at The Masters, and somehow he continues to be overlooked despite being amongst the true elite players of this era.
I believe leading people astray was a missed cut at the Dubai Desert Classic last start. It should be noted that event was severely weather affected, including losing a full day of play, and there was a significant draw bias that formed as a result. However, strike a line through that and his form reads beautifully. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 8th in this field for SG: APP.
In terms of correlated form, a 23rd at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship was better than it looked again suffering from a large draw bias. He also holds a 11th at Memorial Park and a 6th and 16th here at TPC Scottsdale from 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Lowry is a better golfer now and, despite being a stronger field, he simply should not be as long as 70/1. He also recently fired his caddy, due to losing their competitive spark. Given he is playing so well, that is promising to his confidence in his game at the moment. And we have often seen a golfer make such a change and immediately spike in performance, which may well happen here.
Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value
It was close between Lowry and Mitchell who would earn the tag of “best value” for this week. Keith Mitchell will typically give you some excellent driving, with gains both on distance and accuracy.
He is also gaining significantly on approach lately, finishing in the Top 30 for SG: APP in his last two starts. Entering here on the back of a 22nd and 4th, both coming at shorter courses which for me are not Mitchell’s best fits, is certainly promising.
Again, the comp course form really pops here. Mitchell was 9th in November at Memorial Park, finished 34th at Southern Hills when in dreadful form of MC-MC-76 in his three prior starts, and has a 5th and 6th around Bay Hill. To boot, he finished 10th at TPC Scottsdale at last year’s edition.
As always with Mitchell, it will come down to his putting for the week. Given his recent form filling him with confidence, and his prior form on these greens, it presents a promising opportunity for Mitchell to secure his 2nd PGA Tour victory.
Lucas Herbert
Our WinDaily family will know I have a soft spot for Lucas Herbert in windy conditions, which we may well encounter this week. Irrespective of that, Herbert simply presents as a golfer in great form with excellent results at similar events.
Herbert arrives off two stellar tournaments in the desert. A 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic continued his rich association with that event (and makes the 250/1 on offer for him at The Masters even more absurd). He followed that with a 3rd at the Saudi International. That was not necessarily a weak field as the Asian Tour’s flagship event, won by Abe Ancer with Cam Young in 2nd.
Other correlated form comes at Southern Hills when finishing 13th, where we had backed him at 300/1. He also finished 7th around Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer, when we also had him at 200/1. Although we sadly can’t find him at those juicy triple figure odds here, that is largely down to his more obvious recent form than the more nuanced indicators in his game I look for.
Lucas Herbert is the inverse of many profiles we look for. He is one of the best putters in the world, ranking 4th over the last 2 years and 2nd in the last 12 months for SG: PUTT from this field. What we want to see from Herbert is a spike round with his irons. Given his recent form, he looks to be hitting the ball beautifully and could well contend on this desert track.
Chris Kirk
The numbers around Kirk are rather absurd for a golfer who arrives here following two consecutive 3rd place finishes. It becomes even more baffling when we deep dive some of his prior form on related courses.
Kirk finished 14th here in 2022, to compliment prior performances of an 11th and 24th. In 2022, he also finished 5th at Bay Hill as well as a 5th at the PGA Championship around Southern Hills. Those were his two best finishes for the year, and the fact they both came at correlated courses to here whilst in elite fields is extremely promising.
He is not the longest off the tee, which is not overly detrimental. This is a course played at altitude which will also be playing very firm and fast. In fact, his superior driving accuracy could prove beneficial as will his excellent iron play. Kirk ranks at 9th for SG:APP over the last 3 months, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 12th for SG: T2G in this field. Those are outrageous numbers considering the strength of field on offer, as well as his price.
Jhonattan Vegas
Finally, we go back to Jhonny Vegas here having not done much wrong for us last time out at the Farmers. Vegas secured a Top 40 place for us there, as he returns from planned shoulder surgery in August of 2022.
Vegas look to be straight into it. He gained on the field for driving distance and accuracy in his two tournament starts this year. He has also gained on SG: APP in both appearances. If we take a longer term look at his form, we find a player who ranks 16th in SG: OTT and 23rd for SG: APP in this field, as well as 32nd for SG: TOTAL, over the last two years.
Jhonattan Vegas finished 10th at his last appearance here in 2019, as well as holding a 23rd at Bay Hill that same year. Overall, that is a lot of value for a player at 200/1 who has been largely forgotten about in fields of late due to a planned absence he looks fully recovered from. We won’t and happily go right back to him here at a big price.
