Uriah Wesson 
You already know how the DFS world works, we like to overreact at any piece of news and dissect it before we get the full picture. We all jump in and start digging in when the time comes. Guess what? Draftkings has released pricing for week one! So let us all dive in and overreact together, see where the prices look like good areas to attack and quickly change our minds an hour before kickoff. Be sure to check out our rankings page for season long when you get done here as well as hop into discord and tell us where you would go in week one. Here is our Win Daily Sports: Way too Early Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown.
As you already know, we have no idea how injuries, weather, and even training camp will change everything (see my QB choice). This is just for fun, something to wet our whistle and start the conversation in discord. A few guys that interest me and a little explainer as to why for week 1.
Quarterbacks:
Ryan Tannehill. Titans, $6,500:
Consistently disrespected Ryan finds himself as the 8th highest-priced quarterback coming into week one. A quarterback who can run, throw, has two top-flight receivers, is arguably the most dominant running back in the league, and is statistically on par with Mahomes over the past two years. He gets a paced-up matchup against a spread offense Cardinals team who put up points in bunches. While people rightfully gravitate to Murray (rightfully so), why not take the other side, with a similar upside for $1,100 less.
Carson Wentz: RIP
Matt Ryan, Falcons, $6,000:
Matt Ryan had a ton of issues last season. No time to throw, multiple receiver injuries, and there was no run game to speak of to keep the defenses honest. Even with that Ryan threw for 4,500 yards and 26 TDs with a 65% completion percentage. I know Julio is gone but Arthur Davis will establish very early that these aren’t the Falcons that you are used to. The O-Line will be better (stop laughing), you will not see many three and four wide sets (Davis runs more 2-3 TE sets than any coach in the league), and to be honest, I think gauge was always going to be the second receiver in this offense because of Davis so the trade was smart. In week one the combination of two capable tight ends, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and a capable receiving back in Mike Davis can very easily overwhelm the worst secondary in the NFC. The Falcons won the week one lottery playing against the Eagles so I could see myself having shares of Ryan.
Sam Darnold, Panthers, $5,000:
Stop laughing. Stop it. Stop. It makes sense. Here’s the fun part of my way too early plays. He played on the Jets….For Adam Gase. Anyone who managed to get away from old googly eyes takes a huge step forward almost immediately regardless of where they go. Now I’m telling you he not only escaped, but he also gets the most dynamic running back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, a better coach, o-line, and two receivers who exceeded 1,000 yards last season with Teddy Bridgewater. Oh and one of those receivers is Robby Anderson, a receiver he already has chemistry with from when he escaped New York a year earlier. The best part is his week one opponent…..The New York Jets. There would be nothing more poetic to watch him go ham against his former team in his very first game in a Panthers uniform.
Running Backs:
Joe Mixon, Bengals, $6,200:
I love, love, love this spot for Mixon in week one. He has been quietly and patiently dealing with crap teams and injuries since arriving in 2017. It paid off in a nice little extension through 2024 and while the Bengals did the Bengal thing and took a receiver in the first round but they do have some decent pieces in Jonah Williams, Trey Hopkins, and second-round pick in Jackson Carman anchoring the Bengals line. If there is even any improvement there and Mixon stays healthy we can see the second half stat lines of 2019 as the floor in terms of volume and output for the duration of 2021. With everyone talking about players like Higgins, Burrow, and Chase one thing that has gone a little under the radar is that the Bengals let Bernard go. That means Mixon now gets the passing down work as well. I said all of that and I failed to mention that in week one he gets the WORST run defense in the NFC in the Vikings.
Nick Chubb, Browns, $7,200:
This guy missed five games with an MCL injury and turned around and rushed for over 1,000 yards on 190 carries. While sharing the backfield with another good back. 7.2K is “high” in terms of price overall but everyone (including the Browns) know that to have any chance against the Chiefs you need to control the ground. If they do not give Chubb 20+ carries in this specific contest they are clearly not paying attentions. Give it to the guy who led the NFL in yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson, Panthers, $5,700:
Everything that I said about Darnold. Ditto for Anderson. You just know these guys want to take out years of pent-up frustration on the Jets front office for making them deal with what may have been the worst head coach in the history of the NFL.
Randall Cobb, Packers, $3,900:
I am listing Cobb for one reason and one reason only. Aaron Rodgers is petty enough to hammer Cobb with targets for 60 minutes as a gigantic middle finger to the Packers front office just to show them what could have been. An added benefit, while Davante Adams gets Marshon Lattimore, Randle Cobb gets either Malcolm Jenkins or PJ Williams. I’m completely fine picking on either.
Tight-Ends
Irv Smith Jr, Vikings, 4,200:
My final way too early guy is one you already know if you have talked to me at all during best ball season. I am all in on this guy. He is big, strong, and fast. Now he goes into season three which is usually the year tight ends make their leap forward without Kyle Rudolph in his way. If you watched any Vikings games last year you also saw that he lined up quite a bit on the outside towards the end of the season and created matchup nightmares. The Bengals last season gave up yards in bunches to tight ends like Mike Gesicki (9/88/1), Zach Ertz (7/70/0), and Evan Engram (6/129/0) and Irv is just as talented as any of them.
Mock Lineup:
Relax Draftkings. This is simply a mock lineup in July. I’m not giving out my picks. The structure is clearly not perfect. Also, RIP Michael Pittman due to Carson Wentz…
Hope you enjoyed Win Daily Sports: Way too Early Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown. Like I said in the beginning, this is simply a conversation starter. It is something that we can look at, think about the season that will be, and have a little fun with some banter. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
