Uriah Wesson 
Good evening everyone, once again the NFL has bestowed upon us a random day of the week to enjoy some NFL action and they have given us a couple of contests that are actually fantastic for GPP plays and leverage points that we can take advantage of. As always be mindful that we are going to have to keep an eye out for injury information leading up to kickoff. The NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 should be a good one allowing for a few different build types depending on the injuries.
NFL 2020 has essentially turned into the NBA when it comes to injury information. I’m not going to drivel on much longer about that, I’m going to go ahead and hop into my favorite plays for this slate. I’ll identify in what format I like each of these plays in.
With a two game slate you need to pay closer attention to script in the same way that you would with a showdown slate. Not to say you don’t with a full slate but it just moves up in my priority list and it allows me to put some lower owned plays that could separate you from the field that may not always be a good play in a full slate. Lets dig into Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19.
As always, if I name a player for cash they are GPP’s viable as well, just know I think they will have higher than usual ownership. My projected exposure is based overall between Cash and GPP
Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 QB’s:
Josh Allen $7,200 (DK): (Cash*but read full explanation*)
Due to the slight decrease in price over Aaron Rodgers, the running upside, the matchup against a Swiss cheese Denver defense, and the potential chip on Buffalo’s shoulder from some statements made by an individual within the ESPN organization (I won’t expand here but it is easy to find) it doesn’t surprise me at all that Josh Allen will potentially exceed 40% in ownership in this two game slate. I will have a GPP pivot but in a lot of instances I’ll likely eat the chalk and get weird elsewhere.
The Steelers stout defense did hold him to around 19.8 DK points but there were a number of missed opportunities, and against middling defenses like the Broncos he usually goes ham for 30+ points and to this point he’s averaging 27.5 DK points in away games so his splits are slightly positive compared to his home appearances.. You can go Rodgers here if you wanted to but I really think Allen needs to be your guy in cash. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling): 35-37 DK points. My exposure, 60-70%
Drew Lock $5,000 (DK) (GPP):
As I stated above with Allen. I do not really care about the ownership. But the Bills are susceptible to big plays so I will be stacking this game from the other side with Drew Lock as my QB in small doses. Of 10 lineups I would have seven with Allen and three with Lock. He’s not a great QB by any stretch but his garbage time production is real. Last week Lock got it together and threw for 280 and four TD’s against the Panthers. The Panthers for all of their issues have shown flashes of having a decent defensive secondary.
If the Broncos screw up and turn the ball over early and get behind we can see the Broncos completely abandon the run early and watch Drew throw bombs for two and a half quarters. Expected Ownership 6-8% My projections (Ceiling): 25-28 DK points. My exposure 20-30%
Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 RB’s:
Mike Davis $6,500 (DK) (Cash)
The Packers are top half in the league in basically every single QB pressure metric in the NFL and the Panthers are a little dinged up on the offensive line. Teddy Bridgewater may find himself running a little more than usual tomorrow.
There is one thing that he is going to have a problem with regardless, finding an open receiver with all of the secondary talent that the Packers have at their exposure. Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Safety Darnell Savage are no slouches. I’m expecting a heavy dose of Mike Davis attacking the week run defense and the short passing game. This is where the Panthers can actually get some consistent ball movement to keep this was within a decent margin.
Davis had a rough stretch where he barely exceeded 8 DK points for 5 week in a row. He finally got himself back on track against the Broncos last week with a nice 25 point outing. I’d expect him to get somewhere around 8 targets tomorrow (if not more) to go along with at least 15 carries. Expected ownership 60-65%, My Projections (Ceiling) 20-23 DK Points. My exposure 40-45%.
Aaron Jones $7,300 (DK) (Cash)
Aaron Jones is great, we all know what he brings to the table and the Panthers can’t spot anyone on the ground so no need to go further. Only concern as he is still in a 55-45% time share with Jamal Williams. If you can tolerate that, he needs to be considered in your lineups. He’s a beast. Expected Ownership 70%. My Projections (Ceiling) 25-28 DK points. My exposure 30-35% (I’m personally going underweight to avoid the usage headache but he can go nuts even in a timeshare.)
Melvin Gordon $5,200 (DK) (GPP)
If Gordon is good to go Fangio seems to be figuring out that Gordon is a better running back than Philip Lindsay. Hopefully they saw the game against the Chiefs where Gordon gashed them for 131 yards while averaging 8.7 YPC while Lindsay got 26 yards on 1.9 YPC. Gordon clearly need to be the guy.
In a negative game script which we will likely get, he is better suited being the pass catcher of the two. If people are still telling you Lindsay is the pass catching back block them now because they aren’t paying attention. Look up his stats this year. He’s caught two passes all season. Gordon will actually be a GPP pivot when I choose to leave Jones out of my roster. His ownership is a touch high, but it’s still 30% less than Jones. He also the get the same amount of work so I like the leverage it provides. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling) 18-22 DK points. My Exposure 40-45%
Don’t Forget: Jamal Williams (Great low owned Aaron Jones pivot), Devin Singletary, Zach Moss
Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 WR’s
Davante Adams $9,400 (DK) (Cash):
If you can afford him you play him. I don’t need to explain what he brings to the table. He’ll be high owned, with a high ceiling, and I’ll have a lot of him. Moving on.
Stefon Diggs $7,900 (DK) (Cash)
Like Adams, it’s Diggs. I shouldn’t need to explain him at this point.
Curtis Samuel $4800 (DK) (GPP):
Please watch his injury designation closely, he came down late with a hamstring issue. He’s here for me for a GPP play for the same reason Mike Davis is. The short passing game, his roll in the running game, and the lack of CMC. I’m not going to put any projections for him because we don’t know what his deal is yet so we need to watch before we make any decisions.
Jerry Jeudy $3,900 (DK) (GPP):
I think this is gonna be Jeudy’s 2nd coming out party. He’s had an a lot of struggles with drops this year, but as you could see above where I touted Drew Lock, those passes downfield are going someone! In the event that he is matched up man against Levi Johnson, he will be able to burn him and catch more than a few deep passes.
If the Bills manage to get up two score I think we’re looking at a situation where Jeudy could get between 8-10 targets. If they connect, I can see this being his highest output game of the season. Even in situations where I don’t use Lock as my QB Jeudy will largely be the guy I run back my Bills stack with. Expected Ownership 18-20%. My Projections (Ceiling) 22-25 DK points
Don’t Forget: Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson
Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 TE’s
Robert Tonyan $4500 (DK), Noah Fant $3,800 (DK)
I’m not going to recommend any other tight ends. If you want to use a dart throw have at it but I’m not going there. Get different elsewhere in my opinion.
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
