Joel Bartilotta 
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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
Thursday night football brings us to Atlanta for a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and Atlanta Falcons (4-5). The Patriots are coming into this Thursday night match up riding a 4 game winning streak. Mac Jones has really come into his own during that stretch. The Falcons on the other hand are reeling following a brutal 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. They look to get back on track tonight but the matchup for them will be super tough.
More or Less – 3.6x Payout
Matt Ryan – 251.5 Passing Yards – More
I expect the Falcons to playing from behind most of this game tonight. And because of that, they will more than likely be forced to throw the ball a ton tonight. If we first take a look at Ryan’s season, he’s hit 252 passing yards in all but 4 games this season. The bad thing for us is that half of those games have come in the last 3 weeks.
Last week was Ryan’s worst game of the season, throwing for only 117 yards and 2 picks. He’s alternated good and back weeks over the past month. Ryan is due for his bounce back game here.
If we switch gears and take a look at the Patriots defense we can see that it’s been 4 weeks since they gave up at least 252 passing yards. However, it’s also been a few weeks since the Patriots have actually faced a competent QB. Last weekend Casey Keenum took the majority of the snaps after Mayfield was hurt, the weekend before that they faced Sam Darnold. We’re not talking about MVP caliber quarterbacks.
My gut here is telling me that Matt Ryan gets back on track and does his best to keep the Falcons in this one in front of the home crowd. I’m going with the ‘More’.
Mac Jones – 245.5 Passing Yards – Less
While the Falcons defense against the pass has been atrocious this year, I just don’t think the Mac Jones will need to throw the ball enough tonight to get to his target of 246 yards. If we look at this Jones season as a whole he’s only reached this number 4 times. During their 4 game winning streak he’s only reached 246 once and that was against the Jets 4 weeks ago.
The Patriots should be up early in this one and if they are I can see them just funneling the ball to Stevenson the majority of the game. He had a breakout game last weekend and if this one gets out of hand, he’ll have a chance to replicate his productivity from last weekend. I’m going w/ the ‘Less’ on Mac Jones.
Rapid Fire – 3x Payout
Matt Ryan vs. Mac Jones (+6.5)
In the more or less section I’ve highlighted my thoughts on both quarterbacks tonight. My gut is telling me we’re going to see very different playbooks from both teams tonight. Ryan will be forced to throw the ball often tonight while Mac Jones and his teammates should be up most of the game and will rely on the run. In the end, Ryan should get at least 6.5 more passing yards than Mac Jones.
Kyle Pitts vs. Jakobi Meyers (+10.5)
This is a tougher one to pick. If the Falcons have any hope of winning this one, or just keeping it close they’re going to need to the tandem of Ryan and Pitts to be productive. The volume for Pitts has been there as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in his last 8 games. That said, the last few weeks haven’t been the greatest for Pitts as he’s failed to reach 100 receiving yards in each of the last 3 weeks.
The matchup tonight screams that Pitts will struggle. The Patriots have been one of the best teams against tight ends all season. They’ve given up more than 55 yards receiving to tight ends just once this season. While Pitts isn’t a normal tight end, I do think tonight will be a struggle for him against a solid Patriots defense.
In Meyers we’re dealing with someone who has been pretty consistent for the most part this season. What we can expect tonight from Meyers is 45-50 yards receiving. If we tack on the additional 10.5 bonus we can expect him to get near 60 yards tonight. With my expectation that Pitts will struggle tonight, the extra 10.5 yards that Meyers will get tonight has me picking him in this match up. Meyers for the win tonight.
Good Luck tonight and hope to see you cash!
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