David Stowe 
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Before we get started I just wanted to take a moment to wish everyone a happy and safe Independence Day or Happy Treason Day if you live over the pond. We have five MLB games that we have to choose from on this beautiful July afternoon and I am going to find you a few areas to target and make a little cash. Now let’s take a look at Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4.
Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4
More or Less: Cubs at Reds
The Cubs are an absolute mess and have been striking out at a higher clip than any other team in the Majors over the last couple of weeks with no less than 11 K’s in 8-10 and no less than 8 K’s at in any of them. Throw in their abysmal .215/ .289 BA OBP on the road and Miley’s 5.5 looks more than reachable. We all know what Hendricks does and you can almost set your clock to it. 6 innings, 90 pitches, 4-5 K’s, rinse, repeat. I opt for the under today simply because the Reds are mashing this season and even better than their baseline suggests against groundball pitchers slugging .476 with a 123 tOPS and are only striking out at a rate of 7.66 K/9.
More or Less:
Poor Detroit. Year in and year out they are one of the worst teams in baseball and 2021 is no different. They are the very worst in the league with a 27% strikeout percentage, 7th worst with a .150 ISO, and 9th worst in hits per game with 7.69. Now they get Lucas Giolito who has a 29.4% K-Rate and has already started against the Tigers twice striking out nine in each contest. This could go to 8.5 and I would still be good. Matt Manning may not get out of the second inning today and in three contests this season he has not exceeded 3 K’s in any of them and he was awful in Triple-A before being called up with an 8.07 ERA across seven starts. The White Sox are middling in more offensive categories this season but Manning really has no business being in the Majors at this point and the vast majority of his pitches are four-seamers right down the middle of the plate at 93 mph. This is going to look like batting practice.
Home Run Derby: Orioles at Angels
My picks: Ohtani, Walsh, Mountcastle
I feel for Thomas Eshelman, the Orioles, and Orioles fans this afternoon. This is a perfect storm for the Angels to smash today. His K rate in a tiny sample is 7%, opponent launch angle is 21.7 percent (which is optimum against pitches under 80 mph which account for around 52% of his pitches), wind blowing out to center at around 10 mph, and oh yeah he has to compete against two of the top seven home run leaders in Jared Walsh and Shohei Ohtani. For my Orioles player, I am going to roll with Ryan Mountcastle who is hitting lefties well with a .506 Slugging percentage and four of his 14 home runs in 81 at-bats. Choose your goal based on your tolerance but I keep it simple and opt to double my money.
Extra Plays***
If I see anything else I like I’ll be sure to put it into our Discord before tip.
Hope you enjoyed my Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 7.4. I look forward to more content covering all of the sports MKF has to offer. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
