Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000!
With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Home Run Blast
Joey Gallo vs. Zach Plesac
Joe Gallo is pretty hot right now and I want to make sure to take advantage of his streak. Over the last week he has 4 homers and 91% fly ball rate. His launch angle is tailored to home runs right now. Looking back 30 days Gallo has a .373 ISO vs. righties and he gets to take on a very beatable righty in Zach Plesac.
Plesac tends to give up more fly balls to lefties as over the last 30 days his fly ball rate is 46% against them vs. just 39% for righties. Love the spot tonight for Gallo and look for him to take Plesac deep into the right field seats at Yankee Stadium. Confidence Level – High
Hunter Renfroe vs. Keegan Akin
Over the last 30 days Hunter Renfro has been absolutely destroying left handed pitching. He owns a .462 ISO and a .511 wOBA over since mid-August. His average distance over that stretch is an insane 343 feet. He gets a great match up tonight against a pitcher in Akin who is due for some nasty regression.
His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA. This has been mostly due to some luck. On balls in play (this excludes homers) hitters have just a .145 average. If we add in that his fly ball rate over the last month is nearly 55% and he’s given up 9 barrels we can decipher that hitters ‘are just missing it’ against him. I highly doubt that Renfroe misses one tonight. The only thing that he may miss is a windshield on Lansdowne Street when he takes one over the green monster tonight. Confidence Level – Very High
Jesus Sanchez vs. Will Crowe
Sanchez is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now. Over the last week he has 5 homers, 7 barrels, a .568 wOBA, and a 1.426 OPS. That OPS Is just bonkers. This is a spot for him tonight that should have him continue his hot streak at the plate. He gets a very soft match up in Will Crowe who has a 6.02 xFIP over the last month.
Crowe’s been especially bad against lefties as he’s giving up a .302 ISO to them. He’s going to throw his change up about 25% of the time tonight to Sanchez and if he leaves one of those over the plate, it’s gone. Sanchez owns a .450 ISO against change ups coming from righties. He loves the pitch and I love him for a homer tonight. Confidence Level – High
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters. These three all stand a solid chance to homer. They match up great w/ the pitcher. Other guys I also love to homer tonight are Bryce Harper vs. Taijuan Walker, Luis Robert vs. Taylor Hearn, and Daniel Vogelbach vs. Zach Davies.
Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!
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