Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000!
With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Home Run Blast
Trey Mancini vs. Ryan Yarbrough
The first two guys I have listed tonight are playing in the same game. As someone that lives in Baltimore I’ve been to enough games in Camden Yards to know that when the weather is hot the ball flies out of the yard, especially to left field.
I’m starting with Mancini here because he gets a great match up vs. a pitcher that’s been struggling of late. Over the last month Yarbrough has given up 4 homers in just 22 innings for work. During that same stretch he has a 49% fly ball rate. A fly ball pitcher in Camden is not what you want to be.
On the year Mancini has a .279 ISO and .386 wOBA vs. lefties. What a comeback for him this year! Yarbrough’s struggles come against righties. On the year he’s given up a .198 ISO and .314 wOBA. Mancini is going to get a heavy dose of cutters tonight’s. He has a .735 slugging % and .442 wOBA against cutters this year and if we look back over his career, this is a trend. Confidence Level – High!
Randy Arozarena vs. John Means
Switching dugouts, I’m looking to Randy Arozarena for a long ball. Arozarena is hot, with 3 straight multi-hit games. I like to target batters in this contest that are swing a hot bat. So we can check that box off right from the start.
He also matches up very well with Means. He has great numbers vs. Means and a lot of has to do with Means pitch mix. Means will throw in a large amount of fastballs with some change ups mixed in. Arozarena is a crusher of fastballs this year with a .586 slugging %, a .415 wOBA, and 61% hard hit rate.
Means has given up 4 homers in his 3 outings since returning from injury. Look for number 5 to come off the bat from Arozarena. Confidence Level – High
Joey Votto vs. JT Brubaker
Joey Votto is no longer hitting a home run every game, but he’s still swinging an extremely hot bat. Since July 21 he has only 1 game without a hit and 10 homers.
Tonight he gets to take on a pitcher in Brubaker who is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace with 5 in his last 18 innings of work. Brubaker has been giving up a ton of hard contact with a 48% hard hit rate over the past month.
While he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, 30% of the fly balls he does give up end up in a fan’s glove. Just like Camden, when it’s warm in Great American Ballpark the ball has a little extra giddy up to it off the bat. With it supposed to be in the mid 80’s at first pitch, the weather is primed for some long balls. Confidence Level – Medium/High
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
Tonight I’m picking on both pitchers and hitting environment. I’ve selected 3 guys facing pitchers that are prone to giving up homers, but also playing in ball parks that making home runs a little bit easier. If you want to go a different route, Jesse Winker on the Reds also is in a good spot for the Reds. In the Camden Yards game, I can also see Nelson Cruz or Ryan Mountcastle going yard.
Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!
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