Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Home Run Blast
Jose Abreu vs. Kris Bubic
Anytime that I see the White Sox face off against a lefty, using their bats automatically comes to mind. Tonight they get to take on a lefty who has been extremely hittable this year. On the year Bubic is has a 5.27 xFIP and a 39% hard hit rate.
While his FB rate isn’t the higest at 33.3%, he has shown a tendency to give up the long ball with 5 in his last 20 innings of work. With Abreu we have someone that smashes lefties as he has a .329 ISO against them this year with a .377 wOBA.
In looking at pitch mix, Abreu should see a healthy stream of fastballs and change ups tonight as they account for about 85% of the pitches that Bubic throws to righties. Over the last several years Abreu has a .362 ISO against change ups with an average distance greater than 300 feet. Confidence Level – High
Joe Votto vs. Zach Davies
Davies isn’t a guy that gives up a ton of homers. He’s only given up 3 in his last 23 innings of work. That said, Votto is on an absolute heater right now and the environment tonight should be prime for offense. Votto will see a mix of sinkers and change ups tonight.
Let’s zero in on the sinker as he’ll see that about 40% of the time. Over the last 5 years he has an ISO of .269 with a 54% hard hit rate against right handed sinkers. Look for Votto to make it 5 straight with homer. Confidence Level – High
Rowdy Tellez vs. Max Kranick
Kranick doesn’t have a whole lot of experience at the Major League level so far, but from what we’ve seen he has a lot of work to do before he can be considered a solid pitcher. In just 3 appearances so far he’s pitched to a 5.71 xFIP due to a 48% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate.
The guy I’m going to attack him with is Rowdy Tellez. 1 – he has a great first name. 2 – he lines up pretty well with Kranick from a pitch mix stand point. He should see a mid 90’s fastball more than 50% of the time tonight.
Against this pitch he has a .234 ISO with an average distance of around 330 feet. Look for him to pull one over the right field fence tonight. Confidence Level – Medium
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
All three of the guys I’m picking on tonight have the ability to really get hammered tonight. Bubic is facing one of the best lineups in baseball against lefties and Davies is facing a Reds team that hits for a lot of power.
Good luck and hope to find some homers with you!
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