Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Home Run Blast
Yordan Alvarez vs. Eli Morgan
Eli Morgan is someone that will eventually turn into a solid pitcher. He’s got solid swing and miss stuff when he’s on, as evidenced by his 11.6% swinging strike rate over the past month. That said, he’s still raw and leaving far too many pitches over the plate.
On the year he’s giving up a 53% fly ball rate with a 47% hard hit rate. He’s been pretty consistent across both sides of the plate as both righties and lefties have an ISO of .300 against him. He’s going to throw Alvarez a mix of fastballs and change ups tonight. Alvarez has had a ton of success against change-ups with a .266 ISO against. Confidence Level – High
Rhys Hoskins vs. Asher Wojciechowski
Woj is making his 2021 debut with a spot start for the Yankees. He last pitched in the Majors in 2020 with the O’s. As someone who has watched a ton of O’s baseball, we’re in for a treat tonight. Over the last few years Woj just has not been able to find success at the Major League level.
Since 2019 his xFIP is sitting at 5.53. That’s a pretty high number and it indicates that we should be able to find some fly balls and homers. My lean here is to the right side of the plate as Woj gives up a 50% fly ball rate to righties. To righties, Woj will throw a mix of a low 90’s fastball, slider, and curve. Hoskins has historically done well against all three of these pitches. Confidence Level – Medium/High
George Springer vs. Garrett Richards
Richards has been one of the most affected pitchers in the game since the ban of the sticky stuff. Over his last 17 innings of work he has a 6.03 xFIP to go with 5 homers and 6 barrels. This is someone that we should take full advantage of. The guy here I’m most interested in is Springer. He just lines up so well tonight.
Richards throws his 94 mph fastball almost 50% of the time to righties. Over the last several seasons Springer has a .733 ISO against this pitch with an average distance of 377 feet. That’s just insane. The next pitch he’ll likely see tonight is a slider. He has a .227 ISO against this pitch. Confidence Level – High
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball. If you want to go a little bit of a different route, JT Realmuto stands a good chance to also homer against Woj and Guerrero against Richards. All three games should see a healthy amount of long balls tonight.
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