Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays triple. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 4x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Home Run Blast
Jesse Winker vs. Jerad Eickhoff
In his last 8 innings of work Mr. Eickhoff has given up 6 home runs. That’s almost a homer an inning. He’s a gas can and we should attack him at all costs. The guy that takes him yard tonight is Jesse Winker (and probably others). If we look at the pitch mix that Winker should see tonight we see that he’s set up for success.
Eickhoff will throw his fastball and slider more than 67% of the time to Winker tonight. Against sliders Winker has a .203 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate. Against a very low 90’s fastball his ISO climbs to .238. With the game in Great American Ballpark tonight I really like Winker’s chances of taking Eickhoff deep. Confidence Level – High
Pete Alonso vs. Vlad Gutierrez
The Polar Bear should homer tonight. He’s facing a pitcher that has had some really mixed results at the Major League level. On the year his xFIP is still at a pretty high 5.67. He’s been susceptible to the long ball this year as he’s given up the 6 in his last 27 innings of work.
Gutierrez’s main pitch to righties this season is his 93 MP fastball. Alonso crushes this pitch. Over the last 3 years he has a .564 ISO against this pitch. You read that right. I expect Alonso to take Gutierrez very deep tonight. Confidence Level – High
Adam Duvall vs. Jon Lester
Gone are the years where Lester was a good pitcher. Now, he’s a serviceable pitcher for those playing DFS as he is one of the most attackable pitchers in the game. He just doesn’t have much left in the tank. His last few games have been downright bad.
He’s given up 5 homers in just 19 innings of work to go with a 6.53 xFIP. He’s just giving up way too much contact and way too much of it has been hard contact. Duvall has been hammering left handed pitching this year. His ISO is sitting at .247. If he’s not striking out against lefties, he crushing them. Look for Duvall to be one of the Marlins that takes Lester deep. Confidence Level – High
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
The ball should be flying in Cincinnati tonight. While Alonso and Winker are my top picks to homer from that game, guys like Naquin on the Reds and Conforto on the Mets are also primed to homer tonight. For the Fish, I also like Aguilar to take Lester deep.
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