Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $10,000!
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some homers!
Home Run Blast
Michael Conforto vs. Chad Kuhl
I should preface this pick with saying that there is risk with this game. You’ll need to monitor the weather up until first pitch before locking in Conforto. If that game plays I really like Conforto’s chances of hitting a homer today.
Prior to last Sunday’s game Conforto went 89 at bats without a homer which was one of the longest stretches of his career without one. As a die-hard Mets fan I know that with Conforto, when he gets his swing locked in he goes on stretches where he hits for a ton of power. I’m hopeful that his homer last weekend before the break is a start of things to come for him.
It also helps that Conforto matches up well with Kuhl. The main pitch that Conforto will see is the are slider from Kuhl. This is a pitch that Conforto has historically crushed. His ISO against the pitch over the past several years is sitting at .300 with a 51% hard hit rate. Confidence Level – High
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Jordan Lyles
I’m expecting some regression coming Lyles’ way. Over the past 30 days his SIERA and xFIP are both sitting over 5 while his ERA is at 3.68. He has the lowest CSW of any pitcher on the slate tonight and has an 85% LOB. All of this indicates to me that he’s been skating by with a ton of luck.
Unfortunately for him he’s facing off against one of the best lineups in the business. The guy that I think takes the most advantage of him tonight is Guerrero, fresh off his All Star Game MVP. In looking at Lyles’ pitch mix we see his 93 MPH fastball is the pitch he’ll throw the most to righties. In his career Guerrero has a .378 ISO with a 56% hard hit rate to this pitch. I see no way that Lyles is able to keep Guerrero in the park tonight. Confidence Level – High
Adolis Garcia vs. Robbie Ray
Look, I love Ray as a pitcher. He’s made some huge strides this year with cutting down his walks and improved on his strike outs. Even though he’s made all of those strides, he’s still giving up the occasional long ball and he’s getting tagged by righties.
His fly ball rate jumps from 31% against lefties to 43% against righties. His hard hit rate goes from 36.5% to 43.3%. We know that if we want to take advantage of Ray, we need to do it from the right side of the plate. Insert Garcia. On the year Garcia has a .222 ISO vs. lefties to go along with a .318 wOBA. Really like the chances of Garcia taking Ray long tonight. Confidence Level – Medium/High
Juan Soto vs. Chris Paddack
Paddack has been up and down with his performances since the beginning of the year. He faced off against this Nationals team about 10 days ago and got shelled. I’m not chasing that performance. That’s not why I’m attacking him here. I’m attacking him because of the way he matches up with Soto.
Paddack has a very simple pitch mix. He throws a fastball and a changeup. Soto absolutely crushes fastballs, to the tune of a 70% hard hit rate and .617 slugging % this year. He’s going to face that pitch more than half of the time tonight. With it being in the 90’s today in DC, the ball should be flying. Confidence Level – Medium
Home Run Blast Wrap Up
These are my top picks for home runs tonight. All 4 of these hitters are set up to do well tonight. From a pitch mix standpoint, they line up for success and the pitchers they are going against have shown the propensity to give up bombs.
Good luck and hope to share the $10k with you!
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