Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Derby. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Derby contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000. Last week there was only 1 winner and that person walked away with $5,000!
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some homers
Home Run Derby
Matt Olson vs. Jordan Lyles
Olson is my top target for a home run tonight and that’s due to Jordan Lyles being one of my favorite pitchers to chase homers against. Lyles is someone that gives up a ton of fly balls. His fly ball rate over the past 30 days is sitting close to 50%. Anytime you put that many balls in the air you run a big risk of giving up homers.
Well, Lyles has done just that with 5 homers over his last 23 innings of work. Olson matches up very well in terms of pitch mix tonight. Lyles throws his fastball more than 50% of the time vs. lefties. Against fastballs this year Olson is slugging .546 to go along with a 54% hard hit rate. Look for Olson to hit one out of Globe Life Park tonight. Confidence Level – Very High
JT Realmuto vs. Garrett Richards
Here’s some righty on righty crime. Since sticky stuff gate Richards has been a different pitcher. Not in the good way. Over the past month since spider tack was taken away Richards has been giving up a hard hit rate of nearly 43% with a swing strike rate below 8%. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact.
When you give up that much hard contact it’s only a matter of time before the ball leaves the park. Well against Richards, it has. He’s given up 6 homers in the past 21 innings. I’m siding with Realmuto in this match-up because he’s such an extreme fly ball hitter.
His fly ball rate over the past week is 63%. Pitch wise Realmuto also matches up very well. Richards is mostly throwing his 4 seamer these days. That is a pitch that Realmuto has been crushing this year. On the year he has a .638 slugging and a 65% hard hit rate. If Richards leaves one of those fastballs over the plate to Realmuto tonight, there’s no doubt the Green Monster won’t be able to hold it. Confidence Level – Highish
Rhys Hoskins vs. Garrett Richards
A lot of what I said for Realmuto also stands true for Richards. Hoskins is also an extreme fly ball hitter. Over the past week he’s at 61%. Hoskins is red hot over the past week too with 3 homers and a 1.462 OPS. I don’t see someone like that Richards being able to slow him down. Look for Hoskins to add to the home run total tonight against Richards. Confidence Level – High
Xander Bogaerts vs. Vincent Velasquez
When I attack Velasquez I like to attack him from the right side as he gives up a whole lot more power to them than he does lefties. Righties have a 48% fly ball rate against him this year and a .253 ISO. The two power righties from the Red Sox that automatically come to mind are JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. I’m siding with Bogaerts here because he lines up a bit better against Velasquez.
Velasquez is going to mostly throw his 4-seamer to righties as he throws it more than 50% of time to them. On the year Bogaerts has a .600 slugging percentage and a 54% hard hit rate to 4-seamers. His estimated slugging % is almost equal to slugging % so we know he’s performing as expected to it. Look for Bogaerts to take Velasquez deep tonight. Confidence Level – Medium
Home Run Derby Wrap Up
These are my top picks for home runs tonight. All 3 of these pitchers have shown the propensity to give up homers and that’s what we want to chase here.
Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!
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