Joel Bartilotta 
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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Derby. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays out 5x your entry fee. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee.
With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls
Home Run Derby
Ronald Acuna vs. Chase De Jong
On the year De Jong is getting crushed by righties. He’s giving up a 51% fly ball rate and a near 46% hard hit rate. These two numbers have combined to give righties a .326 ISO against him. What do the Braves have? One of the best right handed hitters in the game. Mr. Ronald Acuna. If we look at pitch mix we should expect a big night from Acuna. De Jong is going to throw a heavy mix of fastballs and sliders to Acuna. Acuna has high ISO’s greater than .282 to both of these pitches with hard hit rates greater 48%. Confidence level – Very High
Nick Castellanos vs. Mike Minor
Over the past 30 days Minor is giving up home runs at a pretty quick pace. Basically 1 every 5 innings. So we know he’s guaranteed to give up at least 1 a game. My hunch is that the home run in this game comes from Castle. I’m going with Castellanos due to him crushing lefties. This year he has a .281 ISO against them to go along with a .460 wOBA. Confidence level – High
Mike Zunino vs. Logan Allen
Logan Allen hasn’t pitched much in the majors this year, but when he has it hasn’t been good. In his last 3 starts at the major league level he’s given up 7 homers. I’m going to chase that. The guy I’m going to chase with is Mike Zunino. Zunino is a lefty killer. This year he has an insane .526 ISO against lefties. He is absolutely crushing the ball coming from south paws. One of Allen’s favorite pitchers to righties is his sliders which he throws nearly 30% of the time. While Zunino has a high whiff rate to the pitch, he also has a 63% hard hit rate with a .286 ISO. There’s a good chance if he connects, it’s leaving the park. Confidence level – Medium
More or Less – Cubs at Phillies
Zach Davies Over/Bryce Harper Over
I would never call Davies a strike out pitcher. Over the past 30 days he has just a 20% K rate. But this is the Phillies and they strike out a ton. In the past week they have a 26% K rate. All we need from Davies today is 4 strike outs. Being that he’s struck out 4 in 5 out of his last 6 outings and the Phillies are a high strike out team, I’m going with the over on this one.
While I like Davies to get his 4 K’s today, I also like him to give up a few walks and a handful of hits. Davies’ walk % jumps from 10% against righties to 15% against lefties. I like Harper for at least 1 walk today as I can see Davies trying to pitch around him. Once Davies is out we’ll get to take advantage of the Cubs porous bullpen. I like Harper for at least 1 walk today and a homer. I’m going with the over on this one too.
MKF Wrap up
That’s a wrap folks. Let’s watch those homers fly out of the park tonight!
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