Joel Bartilotta 
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Tonight’s Thursday night matchup brings us to New Orleans with a matchup between the Saints (5-6) and the Cowboys (7-4). The Cowboys look to bounce back tonight after 2 losing straight. For the Saints, they’re handing the offense over to Taysom Hill tonight who makes his first start at QB of the season. The Saints come into this matchup riding a 4 game losing streak. Things have not gone well for them since Jameis Winston went down.
More or Less – 3.6x Payout
Dak Prescott – 270.5 Passing Yards – More
Dak Prescott should have one of his top weapons back tonight. After sitting out the last 2 games, Cooper was activated from the Covid-19 list yesterday. Prescott now has his full arsenal of weapons healthy. Well as healthy as you can be for the tail end of the football season. For the first time in several weeks he’ll have Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz to throw to.
We’ve seen Prescott shine at times this year and tonight should be one of those times. He’s hit the 271 yards mark in 4 out of his last 6 weeks. In what I expect to be a close game tonight, Prescott should be able to focus enough on his passing game to hit his 271 yards. I’m going with the More side for Prescott.
Taysom Hill – 180.5 Passing Yards – More
The Saints have finally made the switch at QB to Taysom Hill. With Hill finally healthy enough to play again he’ll have a chance to start at QB for the first time since Week 14 of last season against the Eagles. Hill started 4 games at QB last season and did fairly well. In 3 of his 4 starts he easily surpassed tonight’s goal of 181 yards. He had 233, 232, and 291 yards.
In the one game that he didn’t get to the 181 yards last season, it was more due to game script as the Saints destroyed the Broncos 31-3 in Week 12. Only once this season have the Cowboys given up less than the 181 yards goal for Hill tonight. Look for Hill to easily surpass his goal tonight. I’m going with the More here as well.
Rapid Fire – 3x Payout
Dak Prescott vs. Taysom Hill (+90.5)
I’ve highlighted in the More or Less section that both QB’s should hit their number tonight. That said, both QB’s have a very different number and skill set. While Hill has shown some upside with his arm, he also tends to run the ball quite a bit for a QB which somewhat lowers his pass yardage ceiling. He did pass for 291 yards in one game last season, but that was an outlier. His ceiling is closer to his other two games where he finished in the low 230 yard range and that’s where I think he ends up tonight.
If we look at Prescott, his ceiling is much higher and he’s facing a Saints secondary that has given up close to 3k passing yards through their first 11 games this season. This is the type of game that has ceiling written all over it for Prescott. Even though MKF Is giving 90.5 passing yards to Hill in this one, I like Prescott tonight. Prescott for the win in this one.
Alvin Kamara vs. Ezekiel Elliot (+11.5)
As of writing this, Kamara is still listed as questionable. I’m going to write this under the assumption that he’s playing. In the few games before he was injured Kamara struggled producing on the ground. In those 3 games he had 51, 61, and 50 rushing yards.
If we look at the Cowboy’s defense, they’ve started to show some cracks against the run. Over the last 6 weeks they’ve given up over 100 yards rushing 4 times. Through the first 5 weeks of the year they hadn’t given up more than 74 in any game. If Kamara proves to be healthy tonight, he’s looking at a solid chance for a rebound game.
Switching gears to Ezekiel Elliot, he gets an extremely tough matchup tonight. Only Washington and Tampa Bay have given up less rushing yards to running backs this season. They’ve given up more than 80 rushing yards to running backs just twice this season.
Even if we had a healthy Elliot, I wouldn’t love him here so a banged up Elliot has me ready to gag in this matchup. Especially knowing that Prescott has all his receiving weapons available to him tonight. Coming into this matchup, granted he’s been banged up, Elliot has been downright bad on the ground. He hasn’t surpassed 52 rushing yards since he had 69 yards against the Patriots in week 6.
As it stands right now, I like Kamara to have more pure rushing yards tonight. Even though Elliot gets the bonus of 11.5 yards tonight, he doesn’t do enough on the ground to get close to Kamara. Kamara for the win!
Good luck tonight and hope you cash!
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