adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Welcome to my preview for the Divisional Weekend DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
Divisional Weekend DFS – Minnesota at San Francisco – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: 49ers -6 | Over/Under 45
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 45 in total and is up to 44 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 256 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games: The team like San Francisco won the game 184 times (71.9%). The team like Minnesota won the game 71 times (27.7%). The team like Minnesota did better against the spread, going 128-116-12 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.
Quarterbacks
From a quick glance, these quarterbacks look like some of the least appealing on the slate. Kirk Cousins ($5,700/$7,600) will be facing off versus a vicious 49ers defensive front that is getting healthier. Cousins played well last week, but still only ended up with 13.58 fantasy points. So even if Cousins can duplicate is efforts from last week, that may not translate to fantasy success. Of the two quarterbacks, I prefer Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,600/$7,800) who is the cheaper quarterback on DraftKings but only as a target in larger-field GPPs. Minnesota is down a lot of cornerbacks and its weaknesses are in its secondary. The 49ers this season have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks second-best in the NFL.
Defenses
For defenses overall on this slate, the Vikings DST ($2,700/$3,700) seems like the safest pay-down option. They have scored at least eight fantasy points over six straight weeks. The 49ers DST ($3,000/$4,600) I would only play on DraftKings, as the clear-cut choice for best pay-up DST is Kansas City ($3,200/$4,200) on FanDuel.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,000/$8,000) arguably is the best running back on the Divisional DFS Weekend slate especially on FanDuel where he is only the third-highest price running back. He is seeing and touching the ball too much to not have him as a core piece in your lineups. As for the 49ers backfield, Raheem Mostert ($5,800/$6,700) is the lead back, but with the other SF running backs healthy, I am sure they will cut into his production. I would prefer to use some more salary and pay up to get to Damien Williams ($6,000/$6,900) who should see more touches and is just $200 more on both sites. The Vikings defense is not good at defending running backs in the passing game, so on DraftKings, Matt Breida ($3,300/$5,000) is an interesting name to consider, because there is a chance they have been saving him for the playoffs.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
There’s no tougher matchup for George Kittle ($6,200/$7,400) than his spot this week. No team has been better other than the Green Bay Packers versus tight ends over the last four weeks of the season. We saw it last with Jared Cook as well who went just five receptions for 54 yards. That being said you need Kittle to smash in this spot, and at his price, it might just make more sense to have more exposure for Travis Kelce ($6,400)/$7,500).
For the Minnesota receivers, both have now popped up on the injury report which means I am limiting my exposure to Stefon Diggs ($5,600/$6,800). He has a brutal track record of underperforming in games where he was on the injury report leading up to that game. The 49ers are strong versus deep passes and Diggs lead the NFL in yards per reception this season. In most cases, I would rather just pay-down to get to either Deebo Samuel ($5,200/$6,100) or Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400/$5,700). Samuel is cheaper on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper on FanDuel. I like both of them in this spot versus the Minnesota secondary that is dealing with a ton of injuries. Samuel gets rushing attempts which is a plus, and Sanders is actually coming off his first bye week of the season! Remember he was traded to San Francisco after their bye week in Week 4, so he has played 17 straight weeks. He says he feels relieved and much better heading into this game after a lackluster final three-game stretch (eight receptions for 95 yards).
Adam Thielen ($6,200/$6,900) is still the receiver you want in Minnesota if he plays. Over the last four weeks, no team allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the 49ers.
Divisional Weekend DFS – Titans @ Ravens – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: Baltimore -10 | Over/Under 48
Quarterbacks, Defenses
The line on this game has just gone down since it opened at 48 down to 46.5. Not a sign that Vegas considers this game a shootout and it should not be considering both teams want to run the football which shortens the game. But for Lamar Jackson ($8,400)/$9,400) it does not really matter. Play him in cash games, and use him in GPPs in Divisional Weekend DFS. But with which Ravens player should you pair him with? Well, the Ravens DST ($3,600/$4,800) is also in a smash spot as the Titans have allowed 3.4 sacks per game the third-highest average in the NFL.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram has been labeled day-day and I am concerned that even after a two-week absence he is not ready to go. It has been reported that he will play but there is a strong chance that he could be limited in this game, which means Gus Edwards ($4,900/$5,400) would become a lock, especially on FanDuel. In Ingram’s absence in Week 17 behind back-up offensive lineman and RG3 at quarterback versus a great Steelers’ defense Edwards did work. He carried 21 times for 130 yards. If Ingram is active I love him in GPPs. The same goes for Justice Hill ($3,900/$4,800) on FanDuel. He is way too cheap over there.
Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,600) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where absolutely dominated the New England Patriots. However, he is far from a lock for me because this game script is going to be harder to project the Titans playing with a lead. He is also very expensive on both sites, so I would not be touching him heavily on DraftKings. However, you must keep in mind that the Baltimore defense is weak through its run defense. At home this season the Ravens have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, which was worse than the Carolina Panthers. If the game script somehow goes in the Titans favor than Henry could rack up points quickly with a 25 touch workload looking very projectable. The Ravens can also be exposed versus heavier personnel packages. Versus 12-personnel Baltimore allowed a 48% success rate and 4.5 yards per attempt this season.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
I think Marquise Brown ($4,400)/$5,300) finds himself in a sweet spot on both sites. He is priced down significantly and has a massive upside that you usually cannot get from the receiver at his salary. He can help round out a GPP stack with Jackson. Also, cornerback Adoree Jackson will be returning for Tennesse but he has been dealing with a foot injury, while Brown has not been on the injury report at all this week. That despite being on it almost every week during the regular season. Mark Andrews ($5,600/$6,800) will also be good to go and the matchup is also great for him. The Titans allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season and allowed Ben Watson to be second on the Patriots in receptions and yards last week. Andrews is a great pivot off Kelce/Kittle.
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($6,000)/($7,400) had been on absolute fire but was shut down last week. I am not looking to fade Brown this week, because the Titans should be forced to throw the ball more versus the Ravens. We also got a $1,400 discount on him on DraftKings down to 6K. On the season the Ravens allowed the third-most targets, seventh-most receptions, and sixth-most red-zone targets to receivers. The Ravens also ranked number one versus the tight end, so I am looking elsewhere for a cheap tight end than in this game.
Divisional Weekend DFS – Texans @ Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 49
Quarterbacks, Defenses
When we want to target games for DFS we look for games where the totals are moving up. This is the case here with Houston @ KC, where the line opened at 49 and has moved up to 51 with the Chiefs getting two more points in the process. They are now favored by ten. Patrick Mahomes ($7,500/$8,600) is a great option in cash and GPPs if you cannot afford to pay up for Jackson. Houston was the fourth-worst ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2019. That being said the more contrarian approach will be targeting the other QB Deshaun Watson ($6,700/$8,300). He is a nice late-swap pivot if your Mahomes lineups are not looking great after the first two games. I like the savings more on DrafKings than on FanDuel where you only shave off $300. I alluded to it earlier, but I also love the Chiefs DST ($3,200/$4,200) especially on FanDuel. Watson was sacked seven times last week and this season has been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game.
Running Back
You have to lock-in, Damien Williams. With his increased workload, and the salary he is too easy to jam into lineups. Houston on the season ranked fifth-worst versus the running back position and gave up the second-most receptions to the position.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($6,400/$7,500) is the clear-cut number one tight end option on the slate. The Texans over the last four weeks rank fourth-worst versus the position. Kelce has yet to see less than nine targets in five of his past six games. Darren Fells ($3,500/$5,200) should only be rostered if we see Jordan Akins miss again. Kansas City allowed the second-most targets to the tight end position over the 2019 season and ranked third in touchdowns at the position.
The Houston defense allows a ton of completions towards the middle of the field, but ranks fourth-best versus deep passes. However, Tyreek Hill ($7,600/$7,900) should see enough work in the slot versus Vernon Hargreaves who is one of the single-worst cornerbacks left in the NFL playoffs. Hill’s ceiling is too high to not have exposure and he should dominate. I do prioritize Kelce first in builds. I like Hill on FanDuel more where he is cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400/$8,100). Not sure if I will be too heavy on Hopkins especially as Will Fuller ($5,000/$5,600) makes his probable return. I love Fuller in GPPs because the last time he played Kansas City he almost had three touchdowns but dropped them. Still, the plays were there, and I think in the playoffs he makes them this time around.
Divisional Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Packers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: Green Bay -4.0| Over/Under 46
Quarterbacks, Defenses
Russell Wilson ($6,600)/($7,900) has struggled in his few games at Lambeau Field. Just three combined passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his three career games there. Overall versus Green Bay Wilson has never thrown for more than 225 yards or two passing touchdowns. So with the quarterbacks here I lean towards Aaron Rodgers ($6,500/$8,100) especially on DraftKings where is priced lower than Wilson. Rodgers is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Green Bay is averaging over 260 passing yards per game at home this season (sixth-highest), with 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. I also think the Green Bay DST ($2,800/$4,400) is a very usable DST on DraftKings in the mid-range price. Seattle’s offensive line is really banged up. Packers ranked top-four in forced turnovers per game at home.
Running Back
Aaron Jones ($7,400/$8,200) is in a killer-spot here versus the Seahawks atrocious run defense. Over the last four weeks, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and the most rushing touchdowns.
Pete Carroll also talked up getting more Marshawn Lynch ($4,800/$6,000) involved, which I think you need to get some exposure to especially because of Lynch’s workload near the goal line. Green Bay has allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game, so there is a three-touchdown game in Lynch’s outcomes that needs to be accounted for.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Tyler Lockett ($6,600/$6,700) is cheaper than DK Metcalf ($6,800/$7,100) on both sites this week and I will surely be buying him at the discount. Lockett is still seeing targets; he had eight last week and not fewer than seven in the previous three.
For the value, I also love using guys like Allen Lazard ($4,500/$5,400) and Jimmy Graham ($3,300/$5,000). It’s a #revengegame for Graham and a great matchup. The Seahawks were the second-worst team versus the tight end this year only behind the Arizona Cardinals. Also, Graham is coming off his second-highest target total (seven) of the season. Speaking of targets that is also why I like Lazard. He has 17 targets in his last two games. The Seattle defense is overrated.
