adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
Wildcard Weekend DFS – Buffalo @ Houston – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -3 | Over/Under 41.5
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).
Quarterbacks
From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game.
However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.
Defenses
For defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018.
Running Backs
Do not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17.
It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
At the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday.
The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells.
Wildcard Weekend DFS – Titans @ Patriots – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: New England -5 | Over/Under 43.5
Quarterbacks, Defenses
As a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland.
All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career.
Running Backs
The Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.
Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Outside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense.
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung.
Wildcard Weekend DFS – Vikings @ Saints – 1:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 47
Quarterbacks, Defenses
The 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks.
Running Back
The Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.
Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
The one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go.
Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1.
This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target.
Wildcard Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Eagles – 4:40 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 46
Quarterbacks, Defenses
This is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback.
Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense.
Running Back
Over the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs.
Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
I have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown.
Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage.
