Adam Zibuda 
Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.
B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.
C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.
The Stacks
A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.
B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.
C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
