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Wells Fargo Championship: Initial Picks

The PGA Tour is in North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Players will need to bring the big stick as OTT game takes a major role in a successful week here.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP and I’ll have a particular focus on proximities of 175 through 200+ as those are back in play just like last week.  While the second shot proximities remain similar to last week, the big difference at Wells Fargo is the sheer length of the course and what will be required off the tee.  Don’t completely rule out shorter hitters, but certainly give the edge or the tiebreaker to a guy that can hit it long.  Make sure you listen to tonight’s Win Daily Sports PGA show as we will bring you much more perspective on the course dynamics and each player in this field.  Now let’s get to the Wells Fargo picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11000) – I really think Justin Thomas should be included in this article but I only want to make room for two in this elite range, so I’m going to go with Bryson and Rahm (see below).  This course gives a big advantage to OTT game and Bryson is the Captain of Team OTT.  Rest of his game hasn’t been too bad either and I think this is an excellent course fit.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Speaking of elite OTT game, Rahm hasn’t lost strokes OTT in a very long time.  He rates out 2nd OTT in this Calendar year (behind only Bryson and his APP game has been stellar as well, particularly on shots of 175-200+.  He rates out number 1 in my model.  Again, honorable mention in this range goes to JT and I should also add Webb Simpson.

Corey Conners (9200) – If you’re looking for a great ball striker who has been particularly good OTT, then look no further than the 5th ranked golfer in my model.  Only thing holding this guy back right now is the short game, but that shouldn’t hurt him too badly here.  Give me the ball striker.

Joaquin Niemann (9100) – The only issue with Niemann is he rarely puts all facets of his game together but he’s clearly an elite player just waiting for his moment.  This guy has a small frame but absolutely crushes the ball OTT.  His history at the Wells Fargo is limited and not particularly great, but I’m willing to take a chance on a good course fit and a rising star.

Bubba Watson (8300) – I’m not a Bubba guy, but he has been pretty great lately and I think this DK price is very fair.  Watson has been finishing strong lately and making cuts at the rate of vintage Bubba Watson.  His long iron and putting game has been shaky as of the last 36 rounds, but I’m willing to take a chance on Bubba, but only in GPP’s.

Emiliano Grillo (8100) – a great price for a great ball striker who has been surprisingly great OTT.  Grillo is both a GPP and cash game play as his ball striking and history at this course speak to a golfer that should probably be closer to 8500 rather than 8100.  As usual, he will need to find the putter.

Stewart Cink (7900) – Already a two time winner this year, Cink is in the midst of a great stretch of golf.  That great stretch included a takedown at the RBC and a 12th at the Masters.  Most people may think he’s not the best course fit here due to a presumed lack of length of the tee.  Cink is inside the Top 20 in driving distance over the last 36 rounds, and for the sake of context, he has been driving it longer than Jon Rahm.  The floor is low for Cink but the ceiling is quite high.

Matt Jones (7500) – As you build your lineups, you’ll find yourself in this exact price range quite often and my favorite guy in this particular range is Matt Jones.  He’s a good course fit as he has made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here and his recent history is pretty good as well, and that includes a 1st place at the Honda.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – We’re getting into the danger zone in this price range, but I’ll go ahead and lean on last week’s Secret Weapon (34-6, but who’s counting) as this course will demand a lot of the same from last week from an APP standpoint.  While he doesn’t appear to be a good course fit, his last two efforts at Wells Fargo resulted in an 8th and 13th place finish.

Adam Schenk (6800) – A simple case of riding the hot hand as he has finished within the Top 25 over the last three tournaments (for the sake of fairness, one of those tournaments was the Zurich Classic match play).  Either way, Schenk has been striking it well lately and finished 13th here the last time this tournament was played in 2019.

Luke List (6800) – Some clear deficiencies in List’s game, particularly with the putter and certain APP metrics (175-200), but the OTT game is there as he ranks 12th OTT over the last 36 rounds in this field.  In 2019 he made the cut but finished 65th and in 2018 he finished 9th.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-6.

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