DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The Mexico Open shaped up as good as could be hoped for the PGA Tour, with two leading lights of Tony Finau and Jon Rahm duking it out for the title. However, it was very hard to argue there was any significant value to be found in those selections priced at just +375 and +700 pre-tournament. Unfortunately, it was therefore also a tricky week for our picks as a result. Wyndham Clark recovered nicely from a very poor opening round to move up the leaderboard significantly. Patrick Rodgers and Joseph Bramlett joined him in that upward trajectory. However, both finished in 10th and just one shot outside place money for us. There will be more on Rodgers and Clark in our Wells Fargo Championship Picks this week.
Course Analysis for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Certainly, the first thing to note for your Wells Fargo Championship Picks is the return to Quail Hollow Golf Course. The tournament shifted to TPC Potomac for last year’s edition, due to a clash in preparation for hosting the President’s Cup. Despite being quite a different golf course, Max Homa was successful in securing his 2nd Wells Fargo Championship. However, last year’s event can be ignored in your analysis as it shares little with Quail Hollow.
Most notably, the course is a tricky par 71 at 7,538 yards. That already tells us a lot that we need to know about the track. The penalty for finding the rough is not too significant. However, the ideal combination of driving distance and accuracy is a desirable asset to have. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Additionally, approach shots from 200+ are once again severely disproportionate to the PGA Tour average.
Around the green is easier than PGA Tour average. However, SG: Putting receives a small boost. Putting from 5 to 15 feet has ranked 15th most difficult here, with over 15 feet ranking 7th on tour.
Therefore, key for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks are driving distance, long iron approach play, and an uptick in putting.
Course Comps for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Course form is relatively sticky at Quail Hollow and should influence your Wells Fargo Championship Picks respectively. Certainly, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook and host of the Valspar Championship, profiles well as a course that requires a similar profile for approach shots. It also features the same Bermuda overseeded with Poa greens as seen at the Valspar Championship. Additionally, Bay Hill requires long, straight driving alongside an uptick in long iron approach.
Certainly Caves Valley, host of the 2021 BMW Championship, is one of the most correlated courses to Quail Hollow. Form, however, can be more difficult find due to the reduced field and having only hosted the single event. Finally, last year’s PGA Championship hosted at Southern Hills Country Club should be a good guide of who to expect in contention for our Wells Fargo Championship picks this week.
Weather
Obviously, it is a difficult week to predict if there will be a weather edge for our Wells Fargo Championship picks. Thursday AM will see some increased winds which are forecast to reduce throughout the day. However, this is offset slightly by the fact some rain has been received on the course Wednesday and predicted overnight on Thursday. This should see the course play softer and, therefore, more receptive. However, it does also become imperative to have a modicum of distance off the tee with rollout expected to reduce from drives.
Friday AM should be the calmer winds of the 2nd round, before steadily increasing as the day unfolds. Particularly, this is likely to result in a slight edge to those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. However, the mitigation of rain for those earliest Thursday will reduce the advantage to a predicted less than 0.5 strokes.
Latest weather forecasting can be found here.
Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Suggested Staking
Cameron Young
2.5pts WIN +2200 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +240 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Sam Burns – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3300 MGM
2pts Top 10 +320 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +3300 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +7500 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +550 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +240 Draftkings or +300 Bet365
Taylor Moore – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8500 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365
Gary Woodland
1pt WIN +9000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365
Patrick Rodgers
1pt WIN +12000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Draftkings/Bet365
Cameron Champ – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Long-Shot
0.5pts WIN +25000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1800 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 Draftkings/Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +210 Draftkings or +275 Bet365
Wells Fargo Championship Picks DFS Core: Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Taylor Moore
Thank you reading our 2023 Wells Fargo Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
Italian Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.
