Week 9 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bears at Steelers

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Najee Harris (FD $16,500, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #2: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $13,000, DK $12,600)

Najee Harris is the runaway chalk at CPT on both DK and FD tonight, and with good reason. He’s scored at leats 19 DK points in every game this season except Week 1, and he’s heavily involved in all aspect of the offense. A true bell cow, Harris is still affordable and there are plenty of value plays in this matchup where we can justify using him in the lead role and building a realistic narrative around him.

Bears notes: Justin Fields is still developing as an NFL QB, and while the Bears could have their own bell cow back this game in the form of David Montgomery (questionable, supposed to return from IR), Fields offers some upside with both his legs and assuming a negative game script where he’ll be throwing for much of the second half. I don’t see too many scenarios where I’d play both Montgomery and Fields together, but maybe one in ten GPPs. WRs to target include the underperforming Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, who has had some big games but popped up on the injury report last week and was limited in practice (but expected to play Monday night). If Mooney can’t go, Marquise Goodwin would get a big bump and make some sense as a last piece in 3-man Bears stacks. TEs Cole Kmet and an insanely low-price Jimmy Graham could be gamebreakers at well. Graham is priced at just $200 but is finally eligible to return to action tonight, so he might be worth a punt in some builds.

Steelers notes: After Harris, we have abiding interest in Ben Roethliberger and Diontae Johnson, who has at least 12 targets in four out of his last five games. I’d be leaning toward a Big Ben fade if I’m playing both Johnson and Harris, but we could go for a full four-man stack that includes Chase Claypool in a build or two if we punt CPT with Jimmy Graham, which could be hilarious and not necessarily a terrible way to approach cash games. There’s actually a path to Mooney in that build as well, and if plays I’m definitely considering it. TE Pat Freiermuth could also be a factor, but he’s not a huge priority.

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Forget about the questionable guys and whether or not Jimmy Graham is active.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect Khalil Herbert if Montgomery is inactive. He’ll be important.

Now that we’ve established some Week 8 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Najee Harris
2. Diontae Johnson
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Justin Fields
5. David Montgomery (questionable)
6. Chase Claypool
7. Darnell Mooney (questionable)
8. Allen Robinson
9. Steelers DST
10. Pat Freiermuth
11. Khalil Herbert (if Montgomery inactive)
12. Cole Kmet
13. Jimmy Graham (if active)
14. Chris Boswell (questionable) or Josh Lambo
15. Cairo Santos
16. Marquise Goodwin (higher if Mooney out)
17. Jesse James
18. James Washington
19. Bears DST
20. Ryan Nall

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!