jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)
Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)
Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)
Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.
One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.
But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.
If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.
For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,
Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.
Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.
DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.
DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Tom Brady
- Ronald Jones
- Mike Evans
- Daniel Jones
- Darius Slayton
- Rob Gronkowski
- Scotty Miller
- Evan Engram
- Leonard Fournette
- Sterling Shepard
- Tyler Johnson
- Wayne Gallman
- Bucs DST
- Justin Watson
- Cameron Brate
- Dion Lewis
- Ryan Succop
- Golden Tate
- Graham Gano
- Giants DST
