In Week 4 I was on Nick Chubb, Chris Godwin and the rest of the Rams stack in our Premium Gold slack chat. We can just say I had a good week. Unique plays are important. With the right amount of core plays from David Jones’ article here, and some nifty plays from my article, you’ll be well on your way to taking down GPPs in NFL DFS Week 5.
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Week 5 NFL DFS Quarterbacks and Game Stacks:
Carson Wentz – Eagles and Jets
The Jets have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh most points to running backs, and the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. When playing Wentz, I have the most interest in stacking him with Alshon Jeffery, who owns 22.7% of the team’s target share and Zach Ertz, who has 25.5% of the team’s target share. What makes the Eagles stack so interesting is there are also options to bring back from the Jets. The Eagles give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league, making Robby Anderson (19.4%) and Jamison Crowder (30.1%) very interesting plays. The contrarian play here is Le’Veon Bell. The Eagles are the fifth best against running backs this year, but Bell will get all the usage he can handle at very low ownership.
Kyler Murray – Cardinals and Bengals
Kyler Murray has thrown no less than 32 passes during the first three weeks of his NFL career. The Bengals are giving up 19.5 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and a league-worst 40.41 points per game to running backs. With Kirk and Byrd out this coming week, Arizona has a lot of value to pair with a stud quarterback. The main two pieces I’m looking to stack here are David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. In the last two weeks, Johnson has seen 20 targets and 22 rush attempts. With Kirk out, I expect him to get a bit more time in the slot. Larry Fitzgerald had a 22.3% target share with Kirk in the fold, but now with his 23% up for grabs he should become the focal point. You can supplement the two of them with Trent Sherfield or KeeSean Johnson but don’t play them both. They don’t correlate well.
There is equal value on the Bengals side of things. With A.J, Green and John Ross out, it’s an opening for Auden Tate and increased the roles of Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. Boyd has a 23.6% target share on the season while Tate has 16.1%. These are both expected to go up now that Ross is out as well. It’s well documented that the Cardinals are horrible against tight ends, leaving a chalky Tyler Eifert in the pool of players I’m considering from this game. Last but not least, we have Joe Mixon. He has 30 rush attempts over the last two weeks to go along with eight targets. That includes the blowout on Monday Night Football against the Steelers. Andy Dalton had been averaging 41 pass attempts per game in the first quarter of the season, which is a number I expect to rise further in this game. The Cardinals run the fastest offense in the league, giving both them and their opponents more opportunities. This is possibly my favorite game stack of the week.
Jameis Winston – Buccaneers and Saints
In the last two weeks, Winston has 33 and 29 fantasy points. Despite this and the fact that the Saints give up the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks, Winston is priced at only $6200 on DraftKings and is expected to be at 2.6% ownership. The Saints shut down the Cowboys on national television due to Dallas’ absolute unwillingness to abandon the running game, whereas the Saints are ranked seventh best defensively. The Saints are very giving in the passing game, allowing 25.5 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks, and 42.6 points per game to receivers. Winston has possibly the best group of receivers in the league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay is second in the league at converting passes 20+ yards down the field. That goes along great with the fact the Saints are 26th in the league in the same category. They’ve allowed 16 passes of 10 yards or more to be completed in just the first month of this season.
On the Saints side of the ball, things are just as simple. We have Thomas and we have Kamara. If you want to get cute, you could look at Cook as well. With the Thomas chalk this week, I’m taking a stand and only playing him in-game stacks. That’s one way to get unique rosters even when using extreme chalk. The Bucs give up the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fifth most points to receivers and the second most to tight ends. My preference in this offense within the stack is Thomas, Kamara, Cook. I don’t have a ton of faith in Bridgewater, but the matchup is good and I feel okay about playing only one of them.
Week 5 NFL DFS Running Back Plays
Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke should without a doubt be the highest owned running back on this slate, but he isn’t. Instead, he’s coming in number three with 18% ownership, behind Fournette and McCaffrey. The Packers, in case you have forgotten, just got shredded by Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to the tune of 187 yards and three touchdowns. The week before that, Phillip Lindsay went for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The Packers are the number one funnel defense for rushing and I expect the Cowboys and Zeke to give them everything they can handle.
Aaron Jones
Staying with the theme of this game, Aaron Jones is the second back to make an appearance. The Cowboys are a lot better against the run than the Packers, and this is not a great matchup. But this is a great opportunity. The Packers have Jamaal Williams and possibly Davante Adams out this week, opening a ton of opportunities to Jones. The Packers like Dexter Williams so much that they made him inactive prior to this week, and I’m not worried about him. Up until this point Jones has averaged 15 carries a game while getting a 10% target share and 100% of the high-value opportunities in the Red Zone. While the Cowboys are generally good against the run, they give up 2.27 yards per contact, which is fourth worst in the league and a stat I believe Aaron Jones can take advantage of.
James White
This week Tom Brady and the Patriots get to play the NFL’s fantasy goldmine, the Redskins. One rule I’ve taken to for this week is that one of Edelman, James White, Josh Gordon or the Patriots defense will be in every lineup I make. My favorite play on that list is James White. The Redskins are actually better than average on throws that travel more than 10 yards down the field, ranking 11th against passes 10-19 yards and ninth on throws over 20. Their real weakness is on passes behind the line of scrimmage and 0-9 yards down the field. Those are both areas where James White is often thrown to.
Last week a far inferior receiving back, Wayne Gallman, caught six of seven targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. The fear that this will be a blowout is keeping White’s projected ownership at an extremely low 4.8%. The problem with that is that the Patriots blew out Miami and Pittsburgh in Weeks 1 and 2, and White still had 11.9 and 13.2 fantasy points. I like this play a lot more on DraftKings, where it’s a full point per reception.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Plays
Adam Thielen
I’m usually not a narrative guy, but in the NFL the squeaky wheel usually gets greased. Beyond that, the Giants are one of, if not the worst passing defenses in the league. Thielen has a 23.4% share of targets and 46% share of air yards. Both are beyond respectable numbers, so production should soon follow. The Giants give up the fifth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and fourth most to receivers. Thielen is being overlooked compared to the other top-end wide receivers and has slowly but surely found his way into my top plays for NFL DFS Week 5.
Chris Godwin
Godwin is a lot like Winston this week, where he’s being disrespected based on a misconception last week in the Cowboys game. As referenced in the Winston outlook, the Saints give up the sixth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have one good corner in Marshon Lattimore, and he won’t be following Godwin to the slot. At $6900, he’s priced under Hopkins and Evans while scoring at least 14 fantasy points in three of four games. He currently carries a target share of 24.6% and an air yards share of 26%.
Calvin Ridley
Julio Jones is getting a ton of love this week. So why isn’t anyone talking about Calvin Ridley? Deviating from the wide receiver chalk is usually good for your bankroll in large field tournaments. Ridley has taken a back seat in recent weeks to both Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu. He saw only a 12% target share last week and a 3% target share the week before. That kind of usage makes this a really risky play, but in a matchup against the Texans, who are giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game to receivers, I like the bounce-back possibility. The Texans have been stellar against tight ends this year and should be able to take Hooper out of this game. I believe the decline of Ridley is directly tied to the emergence of Hooper in the middle of the field. So with Hooper being taken out of the game by the third best defense against tight ends, this is a good week for Ridley to re-emerge as the number two option in the Falcons offense.
Marquise Brown
The Marquise Brown blowup game is coming. Lamar Jackson has thrown for at least 136 air yards in every game this season and taken an average of 6.5 deep attempts a game. Brown is the only receiver on the team that has more than an 8% target share at 24.8%. Not only has he been getting the targets, but Brown also has 33.5% of Jackson’s insane amount of air yards. Pittsburgh has allowed 16 completions of at least 10 yards in their first four games and has given up an average of 40 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. After back-to-back chalk Brown letdowns, ownership has wavered and he is currently projected to come in at 2.5%.
Week 5 NFL DFS Tight End Plays
Evan Engram
Most people have just come to fear the Vikings defense but it isn’t needed. This season the Vikings are ranked 10th worst against tight ends at 14 fantasy points per game. Engram has 23.7% of targets for the Giantsand has quickly become a security blanket for the young Danny Dimes. The Vikings are particularly bad on passes that are thrown between 0-9 yards from the line of scrimmage, allowing 59% of them to be completed at the fourth worst clip in the league, an area where Engram thrives. Tight end is a great position to be different at because of volatility.
Greg Olsen
Under Kyle Allen, Olsen has become the second most targeted receiver on the team. Jacksonville isn’t a particularly great matchup for tight ends, but they’re about middle of the road and not scary. This season they are allowing the 14th most fantasy points to tight ends at about 14 fantasy points a game. This average matchup is making the industry overlook Greg Olsen at only a 4K price tag, a steal with him scoring over 20 fantasy points in half of his games so far this season. The current version of the Panthers offense runs through, McCaffrey, Samuel, and Olsen and you won’t find a cheaper price tag for such a big part of any offense.
