Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.
It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.
As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.
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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers
1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)
Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.
With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.
2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS
DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)
He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.
Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.
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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers
1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL
DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)
You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.
2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)
DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)
He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.
2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB
DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)
Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.
3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL
DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)
Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.
4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)
Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.
5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU
DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)
Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).
Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.
6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)
Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.
Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.
7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC
DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)
Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.
Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.
8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT
DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)
Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).
Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.
9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN
DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)
Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.
Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.
10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)
DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)
Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).
Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.
Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers
1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG
DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)
Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.
2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)
DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)
The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.
3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC
DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)
Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.
4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN
DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)
Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.
5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL
DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)
The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.
6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN
DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)
He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.
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