Week 4 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Jaguars at Bengals

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000, DK $17,400)

Pivot: Joe Mixon (FD $14,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ja’Marr Chase (FD $15,300, DK $12,500)

Contrarian #2: Marvin Jones, Jr. (FD $11,500, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: James Robinson (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Choosing your captain is going to be a wide-open proposition this week, as nobody stands out among the player pool as a guy you absolutely need on TNF. I think the best strategy is to narrow your player pool to the players most likely to succeed given what should be a high-yardage game (if not high-scoring, as the O/U is only at 46). Joe Burrow should be the chalk, however, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase running slightly behind.

Bengals notes: There are two main items of importance to discuss on the injury front, as both safety Jessie Bates and WR Tee Higgins have been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. We’ll discuss the Bates injury in the context of the Jaguars offense in a bit, but the Higgins injury means that more targets will be concentrated among Chase, Tyler Boyd and Mixon — while C.J. Uzomah (just four catches on five targets through three games) remains a fringe fantasy option even in this showdown format. I’m a little less interested in the Bengals DST than I would be if Bates was playing, but they’re still a unit that could come up big against the mistake-prone Jaguars offense. Kicker Evan McPherson is in play, but not much of a priority, as the yardage totals in this game should be a little higher than expected. WR Mike Thomas is the only sub-$1K player I’d consider, and that would only be in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Jaguars notes: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game gets a slight uptick with Bates out, as the Bengals safety is one of the best coverage DBs in football and a guy they use all over the field — in the slot, deep in coverage and in man against TEs and WRs (although some of that loss will be mitigated by the return of Bengals CB Trae Waynes from a hamstring injury). Marvin Jones, Jr. has been the most targeted WR on the team this season (and the most productive), but I think they’ll find some ways to get Laviska Shenault, Jr. the ball a bit more in this matchup given the defensive shakeup on the Bengals. The other main options are D.J. Chark, Jr. (why is everybody a JUNIOR?) and James Robinson, who has resumed more of a bell cow role in the offense, logging 15 carries and six targets last week against the Cards, The Jaguars DST is also really cheap, and is just a dart throw play in large-field GPPs since they’ve yet to reach double digits in any DK contest this year. Still — they offer the most consistent production of any FLEX option under $4K, even with the glaring possibility of negative points. And don’t forget about TEs Dan Arnold (who makes the TNF showdown write-up two weeks in a row as he was acquired earlier this week from the Panthers) and Jacob Hollister, a $1K punt play who was targeted six times by Lawrence last week en route to 2-15-0. Josh Lambo is out tonight, and I don’t know if new Jags kicker Matthew Wright will be added to the player pool before lock — but I’d avoid him unless he’s a late addition and really cheap.

Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. It’s basically just Hollister and Thomas, and they are 1/20 or 2/20 GPP plays at best.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Joe Burrow
2. Joe Mixon
3. Ja’Marr Chase
4. Marvin Jones, Jr.
5. James Robinson
6. Tyler Boyd
7. Trevor Lawrence
8. Laviska Shenault, Jr.
9. D.J. Chark, Jr.
10. Bengals DST
11. Dan Arnold
12. Jaguars DST
13. C.J. Uzomah
14. Evan McPherson
15. Auden Tate
16. Chris Evans
17. Carlos Hyde
18. Jacob Hollister
19. Mike Thomas
20. Jamal Agnew

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 4 action!