jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re going to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Gardner Minshew II (DK $16,500, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #1: DeVante Parker (DK $12,600, FD $12,000)
Contrarian #2: Keelan Cole (DK $8,100, FD $11,000)
Contrarian #3: Mike Gesicki (DK $11,100, FD $10,500)
Tonight’s MVP landscape is a pretty complicated one, because the pricing is soft enough that we can safely play a host of high-upside options in the flex spots, even if we roster a QB up top.
The chalk is obviously going to be Gardner Minshew II, who gets a great matchup against a weak Miami secondary that’s now missing Byron Jones (out with a groin injury). It shouldn’t be too difficult to stack up two or three of his WRs and RBs and come back with some high-profile Dolphins, though the winning combination might leave a considerable amount of salary on the table.
Ryan Fitzpatrick makes for a nice pivot, since the Jaguars have an effective rookie back in James Robinson who could rack up some points and keep Minshew from making value. I’d certainly entertain Fitzmagic-at-MVP combos with one (or both) of the Jaguars RBs (pass-catching back Chris Thompson being the other).
In one scenario, the Jags would grab an early lead behind the running of Robinson, with the veteran Miami QB storming back via several TD passes against a defense that’s no longer a stalwart unit.
In the other, the Dolphins grab an early lead via Fitzpatrick, struggle to move the ball on the ground and get most of their yardage and points via their WRs (Keelan Cole has some incredible hands and is massively underpriced on DK) and a drive or two that relies heavily on Thompson.
I’m very high on Mike Gesicki (who runs nearly 80% of his routes directly out of the slot) and I’m finding a way to get him into most of my builds. If you’ve been following him since last season, you know that his monster Week 2 performance (11-130-1 on eight targets) was not a fluke, and that he’s a talented pass-catching tight end with tons of upside in just about any matchup.
Spending down for a non-QB at MVP allows you almost total freedom in stacking up the best offensive options on DraftKings, though I might not go too heavy with this approach on FanDuel. The game total and defensive strengths of both teams seem to point to big days for one or both signal callers.
UPDATE: With the news that DJ Chark will sit out TNF, I’m making a little more room for Laviska Shenault, Jr. and Chris Conley.
Week 3 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Rely too heavily on either of these defenses in your builds – though using a DST in 1 or 1 out of 10 large-field GPPs could be good way to establish some variance. Fitzpatrick tossed three INTs in Week 1 against the Patriots, and we know he’s capable of throwing more than that (and a pick six).
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections.
DON’T: Be afraid to use just one or two players from a single team if you think a blowout is a possibility.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Gardner Minshew II
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Mike Gesicki
- Keelan Cole
- DeVante Parker
- James Robinson
- Myles Gaskin
DJ Chark Jr. (questionable, chest)OUT- Preston Williams
- Laviska Shenault Jr.
- Isaiah Ford
- Tyler Eifert
- Chris Thompson
- Jaguars DST
- Jordan Howard
- Chris Conley
- Jason Sanders
- Matt Breida
- Brandon Wright (new Jags K — available only on FD)
- Dolphins DST
